North Carolina vs. UCF Prediction, Odds & Picks: Knights on Upset Alert?
The status of UCF starting quarterback Cam Fancher is unknown, but I’m still confident in my North Carolina vs. UCF prediction. The Knights are a 6.5 to 7-point betting favorite for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX) game at Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando, and my college football picks are all over the Tar Heels.
As part of my best college football predictions for Week 4, expect Demon June and North Carolina to run all over an average rush defense in Orlando.
🏈 North Carolina vs. UCF prediction to win
College football expert odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: North Carolina (+225 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: North Carolina +7 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 North Carolina vs. UCF best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🐏 North Carolina ML (+225) ⭐⭐⭐
Fancher returned to practice this week, but even if he plays Saturday, my North Carolina vs. UCF prediction projects the Tar Heels to pull off the upset. Against Jacksonville State, Fancher was just 5-for-9 for 32 yards, and the Knights hadn’t scored any points before his injury.
The transfer from Florida Atlantic threw for more than 200 yards just twice last season, which doesn’t bode well against a defense allowing just 203.0 passing yards per game. Defensively, the Knights are allowing 162.5 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. They’ll have their work cut out for them against Demon June, who is averaging 8.7 yards per tote.
The Tar Heels are allowing just 19.0 points per game, and they’ll keep the team within striking distance against an unproven offense. A $10 bet at BetMGM would pay $22.50 if the Tar Heels win outright. The odds of +225 imply a 30.77% chance that Bill Belichick's team wins.
💰 North Carolina vs. UCF player prop pick
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Demon June Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With 23 carries and 200 yards, June is emerging as the number one runner for the Tar Heels. No other back has more than 15 carries or more than 46 rushing yards.
Though the Knights have a better run defense than Charlotte and Richmond, they’re allowing 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks 78th in the nation. June has averaged at least 5.8 yards per carry in each of his games. He didn’t get a single carry in Week 1, but he had nine in Week 2 and 14 last week. If he continues to produce, there’s no reason to expect Belichick to go away from him.
At the time of writing, only FanDuel is offering this prop. The price of -114 suggests a 53.27% chance he hits this Over. A $10 bet will pay 8.77.
📊 North Carolina vs. UCF odds: Week 4
North Carolina vs. UCF odds update live in real time.
📈 North Carolina vs. UCF opening odds
- Moneyline: North Carolina +200 | UCF -250
- Spread: North Carolina +5.5 (-110) | UCF -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
🔍 North Carolina vs. UCF odds analysis
The total for this game opened at 49.5, and despite 59% of wagers backing the Over, the total has dropped to 46.5 or 47 at our best college football betting sites. Even if Fancher’s return becomes official, I don’t expect this number to go back to where it started, as both defenses have been solid this season.
The spread opened with UCF -5.5, and it has grown to between -6.5 and -7. The public likes the Knights, and with Fancher practicing, it seems oddsmakers are anticipating his return. If this gets to 7.5, the Tar Heels are a must-play.
🔢 North Carolina vs. UCF key stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| North Carolina (2-1) | Statistic (per game) | UCF (2-0) |
|---|---|---|
| 25.0 | Points | 42.5 |
| 19.0 | Points allowed | 8.5 |
| +0.7 | Turnover margin | +1.5 |
| 148.7 | Passing yards | 259.0 |
| 130.3 | Rushing yards | 232.0 |
| 203.0 | Passing yards allowed | 98.5 |
| 134.3 | Rushing yards allowed | 162.5 |
| -5.0 | Net yards per play | +3.8 |
📺 North Carolina vs. UCF game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 20
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando)
- How to watch: FOX
❓ North Carolina vs. UCF FAQs
Who is favored to win North Carolina vs. UCF?
UCF is a -255 moneyline favorite against North Carolina.
What is the spread for North Carolina vs. UCF?
The Knights opened as 5.5-point betting favorites, and they’re now 6.5 to 7-point betting favorites at our best sports betting sites.
What is the Over/Under for North Carolina vs. UCF?
The Over/Under for North Carolina vs. UCF is 46.5 after opening at 49.5
What are the best bets for North Carolina vs. UCF?
The best bets for North Carolina vs. UCF are North Carolina to win (+225) and Demon June to rush for Over 58.5 yards (-114).
When is the North Carolina vs. UCF game?
The North Carolina vs. UCF game is on Saturday, Sept. 20, at 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). The game will be played at Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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