College Football Best Bets, Odds for Saturday Week 9: Will Ducks Defense Dominate?

With the first release of the in-season College Football Playoff rankings coming next week, our college football best bets for Week 9 are calling for a number of strong showings from top programs Saturday. All our college football picks are based on the NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.

Penn State and North Carolina both went down for the first time in Week 8, and now there are just nine undefeated programs remaining in the nation. Air Force, Liberty, and James Madison are the only three outside the Power Five conferences, and three top-10 teams (Texas, Washington, Oklahoma) all barely squeaked out one-possession victories over schools with a combined 7-14 record.

So, can we expect more chaos in Week 9?

To accompany our college football Week 9 predictions, here are our college football best bets for Saturday of Week 9 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football best bets for Saturday: Week 9

• Jason Bean (Kansas) Under 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Oklahoma (-115 via DraftKings, bet365)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Re’Mahn Davis (Kentucky) Over 0.5 receiving touchdowns vs. Tennessee (+310 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Utah Under 2.5 team total touchdowns vs. Oregon (-165 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Ohio State-Wisconsin Under 45.5 (-110 via FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Week 9 college football schedule and odds for Saturday

Odds via Caesars

• Oklahoma (-10) vs. Kansas
• Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida
• Oregon (-6.5) vs. Utah
• Duke vs. Louisville (-4)
• Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Kentucky
• Oregon State (-3.5) vs. Arizona

College football predictions

Jason Bean (Kansas) Under 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Oklahoma (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Jayhawks have lost two of three games since quarterback Jalon Daniels went down with an injury. Daniels' absence is a significant loss for the offense, considering he finished last season ranked third in FBS in Total QBR (87.9). ESPN Senior Writer Adam Rittenberg tabbed Jason Bean as the best backup quarterback in the country in this week's national article, and while Bean has thrown for 2,193 yards and a 23-6 TD-INT over the last two seasons when Daniels has been unable to play, his upside from a touchdown perspective on a week-to-week basis is limited.

Bean is coming off a five-touchdown performance in his last game against Oklahoma State but has multiple touchdown passes in just four of his previous eight starts and was held to a season-low 13.0 QBR and 42.9% completion percentage with just one touchdown in his only game against top 25 competition this year (Texas). 

Oklahoma ranks 11th in points per drive allowed and has the best Stuff Rate in the country, so its ability to negate opposing running games enables it to drop more defenders in coverage on obvious passing downs. The Sooners' red zone defense is elite, and it held UCF to three field goals among its six scoring drives last week. However, we expect a more dialed-in defensive performance against a familiar foe this week from a unit that ranks 23rd in SP+.  

DraftKings and bet365 both save Under backers some money compared to Caesars, which charges a price of -121 for this wager.

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Re’Mahn Davis (Kentucky) Over 0.5 receiving touchdowns vs. Tennessee (+310 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Re'Mahn (Ray) Davis is second in the SEC with 781 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns but leads the conference with a 7.0 yards per carry average. However, he did not score a rushing touchdown in consecutive games against Georgia and Missouri. Still, he does have a receiving touchdown in three straight games and five of seven overall this year. We are getting great value on the receiving touchdown odds from this versatile back, especially since Tennessee has a stout defensive front. 

The Volunteers were gashed for 115 rushing yards by Alabama's Jase McClellan, but they still held the Crimson Tide to 3.3 yards per carry after entering the week ranked seventh in Line Yards. Thus, look for the Wildcats to avoid challenging the stout Tennessee front in the red zone and for them to instead find ways to get Davis open in space in the passing game. 

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Davis’ receiving touchdown prop is found only at DraftKings, but we are encouraged by the +310 odds, given that he has anytime touchdown scorer odds as high as -210 at FanDuel. The Davis may also encourage those that tail this wager to score two-plus touchdowns prop, which pays out much better at FanDuel (+340) than it does at bet365 (+225).

Utah Under 2.5 team total touchdowns vs. Oregon (-165 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oregon was a fourth-and-three conversion away from icing a road victory in a hostile environment at Washington two weeks ago. That impressive performance is likely why the Ducks have risen from -5.5 to -6.5 point road favorites against a Utah team that beat USC on the road last week. We agree with that line movement, as Utah's offense under quarterback Bryson Barnes has been pedestrian at best.

The Utes average fewer than five yards per play and are 109th or worse in EPA/Play and Finishing Drives. Utah is one of the most run-heavy offenses in the country, calling running plays at nearly double the rate as passes. Thus, expect head coach Kyle Whittingham to try and shorten the game and minimize possessions to keep the ball away from a Ducks offense that ranks in the top two in Success Rate. That conservative approach should lead to a lower-scoring game, which Utah is accustomed to, as it has scored one offensive touchdown in two of three games against ranked opponents this year.

Considering Utah’s projected team total is 20.5, with most sportsbooks juiced to the Under, we do not mind paying up slightly to back the Under that the Utes will not score three touchdowns.

Ohio State-Wisconsin Under 45.5 (-110 via FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State's defense ranks second in yards per play (3.9), third in scoring (10.0 points per game allowed), third in drive score percentage (16%), and fourth in yards per game allowed (260). The Buckeyes have allowed 17 or fewer points in all seven games this season, a big reason why they have started 7-0 for the fourth time in five full seasons under head coach Ryan Day. Those numbers are even more impressive when considering the Buckeyes have played a top-20 schedule and rank first in the country in strength of record. 

We are still waiting for Kyle McCord's breakout game, but perhaps he is less talented than the great Buckeyes quarterbacks who came before him, as he has led the offense to a No. 29 ranking in points per drive. Marvin Harrison Jr. looked like the only offensive threat against Penn State last week (11 catches for 162 yards), as no other Buckeyes receiver had more than four catches, and no running back averaged more than 2.6 yards per carry. Thus, we expect Wisconsin's defense to play well at home, and this would become a more confident five-star play if running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka are again ruled out with injuries.

Bettors have their choice of any of the top five sportsbooks for this wager, who are all in unison with a total of 45.5 at standard -110 odds.

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College football best bets made 10/26/2023 at 4:09 p.m. ET.

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Next week is the first reveal of the in-season College Football Playoff rankings, so many of the country's top teams will be looking to put on their best performances this week. Read on for our foursome of college football best bets for Saturday of Week 9 based on the best NCAAF odds.