Navy vs. Notre Dame Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 0: How Will Navy’s New Pass Game Look?
It's the 96th clash between the Navy Midshipmen and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but just the third time the two teams have traveled to Dublin, Ireland. Read on for our Navy vs. Notre Dame picks based on the best college football odds.
Notre Dame leads the all-time series against Navy, 79-13-1, and has won five consecutive meetings. However, since beating Notre Dame in 2016, two of Navy's last five losses in this rivalry have been by seven or fewer points.
Brian Newberry is looking to become the first head coach in Navy history to beat a ranked team (Notre Dame is No. 13 in the AP Top 25 poll) in his opening game. He inherits a team that went 4-8 last year (4-4 AAC), with four or fewer wins in four of the previous five seasons.
Year 2 of the Marcus Freeman era begins, as Notre Dame rebounded from a 0-2 start to finish 9-4 in his first season. One of those victories was a 35-32 win over Navy in Baltimore last year, a game the Fighting Irish led 35-13 at halftime.
Here is our best Navy vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Navy vs. Notre Dame prediction: Week 0
Under 50.5 (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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If you thought Navy's games move quickly thanks to their heavy triple-option attack, they will go even quicker this year thanks to a new rule where the clock no longer stops after first downs. The option did not lead Navy to become a profitable Under team, as the Over cashed in more of its games (seven of 12) for the first time since 2019.
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The Under is a contrarian play for our college football Week 0 predictions, as the Midshipmen are expected to air the ball out more frequently than in the past under new offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has Wake Forest transfer and Heisman hopeful Sam Hartman under center, and he was one of seven quarterbacks to throw for at least 3,500 yards and 35 touchdowns last season. However, the Fighting Irish are also breaking in a new OC (Gerad Parker replaces Tommy Rees), and it should take time to gel for a new offense that has been run-dominated for so long.
Despite riding with the Under, I do like Jayden Thomas to score a touchdown in this one, as I noted in our College Football Week 0 best bets.
Notre Dame may have only Grant Chestnut's tape from his days at Kennesaw State to prepare for what Navy's new offense will look like, but a whole offseason should do wonders to scheme for its triple-option attack. Notre Dame held Navy to 149 yards rushing and 3.7 yards per carry the last time the two teams met on the opening week in Dublin in 2012, and with the defensive line being a relative weakness of this Fighting Irish defense, they will likely appreciate facing the triple option less.
Meanwhile, Navy was the AAC's best defense on third down last year and ranked second in sacks. And it ranked third in FBS in rush defense (88.9 yards per game) despite facing three opponents that finished in the top nine in rushing.
Navy vs. Notre Dame best odds
BetRivers (-112)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | BetRivers |
| Under 49 | Under 49.5 | Under 49.5 | Under 49 | Under 49 | Under 50.5 |
| -112 | -115 | -115 | -110 | -110 | -112 |
Compared to the rest of our best sports betting apps, BetRivers has the most eye-popping number for Under backers, as it's the only shop with a total north of 50 points. Even the two that have an O/U of 49.5 are juiced to the Under, suggesting that they may eventually move to the more common number of 49 before kickoff.
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Navy vs. Notre Dame odds
Navy vs. Notre Dame odds analysis
Just like the total, BetRivers is the only shop that differs from other sportsbooks on the point spread, as it’s the lone shop at Notre Dame -20 while all others are at -20.5.
From a moneyline perspective, Notre Dame is as low as -1100 at Caesars and as high as -1450 at DraftKings and FanDuel.
At one point on Wednesday afternoon, all sportsbooks were in unison with an O/U of 50.5, and the juice was evenly split at -110 on either side. However, weather may be the most significant factor in the total plummeting by as much as 1.5 points in the last 24 hours, as there is an 83% chance of rain in Dublin on Saturday.
Navy vs. Notre Dame game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023, 2:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 63 degrees, 83% chance of precipitation, 13-mph NW winds
Navy-Notre Dame pick made on 08/24/2023 at 7 a.m. ET.
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