The Auburn Tigers are hosting the Missouri Tigers in the SEC opener for both schools. We're breaking down the betting with our Missouri-Auburn picks.
After two soft non-conference games against Mercer and San Jose State to open the season, we were bound to learn something about Auburn in its first real test, as No. 22 Penn State became the first school from the Big Ten to visit Jordan Hare Stadium. The 41-12 loss was Auburn's worst home defeat since a 38-0 shutout loss to Georgia in 2012.
Missouri avenged its first loss to Kansas State with a bounce-back 34-17 win against Abilene Christian. The Tigers are searching for their first road win of the season in the fourth-ever matchup between these schools and third with both as members of the SEC.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 4 game between Missouri and Auburn (odds via PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Missouri vs. Auburn Picks
Missouri vs. Auburn ATS Pick
Auburn -7 (-110) ★★★★
Auburn was close to firing head coach Bryan Harsin this winter after a 6-7 season in his first year on the job, but if his teams continue to lose in the fashion it did against Penn State, his days may be numbered.
Auburn is just 2-6 in its last eight games, which is disappointing given the school's standards for its football program. The team will feel a sense of urgency to get back into the win column this week, especially with five games against AP-ranked teams looming.
One could argue Auburn's 29-point loss to Penn State was misleading, considering it made four trips inside the red zone and walked away with just six points. With two field goals and a turnover on four possessions inside the Nittany Lions' 20-yard line, Auburn left 22 points on the board. The red-zone deficiencies were surprising, considering the team was a perfect 8-for-8 in converting touchdowns in close in its first two games.
Auburn was one of six FBS teams entering last week that scored touchdowns on all of its red-zone opportunities. Against a less-intimidating Missouri front seven, we look for it to return to its ways of converting scoring chances at a high clip.
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Missouri vs. Auburn O/U Pick
Under 53 (-110) ★★
Auburn's Tank Bigsby is an explosive running back who had averaged 114.5 scrimmage yards per game entering last week, ranking fourth in SEC. However, Penn State stifled him for 4.3 yards per carry and held him to 77 yards total. If the Tigers do not get better play from quarterback T.J. Finley (one passing touchdown, four interceptions), Bigsby will continue to face stacked boxes and will not be as effective.
Auburn's defense still has yet to force a turnover through three games, which can mean good things for the Under as it's not creating short fields or scoring opportunities for its offense. In addition, Auburn's run defense allowed 2.1 yards per rush before Penn State's Nicholas Singleton's 124-yard performance, but Missouri does not have a back as talented as him on its roster.
Under backers would be wise to make this bet at either PointsBet or Caesars, at which the total is 1.5 points higher than other sportsbooks'.
Missouri vs. Auburn Prop Pick
First-quarter Under 10.5 (-115) ★★
Missouri has been a slow starter offensively, as it scored 10 first-half points on offense (plus a punt-return touchdown) against Abilene Christian and just six combined first-quarter points against Louisiana Tech and Kansas State. Look for both teams to emphasize the running game early, leading to longer drives and fewer possessions.
Where to Bet on Missouri-Auburn Picks
Missouri-Auburn picks made 9/21/2022 at 6:10 a.m. ET