Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Today: College Football Week 1 Best Bets

Can Southern Miss pull off an upset under new head coach Charles Huff?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: August 30, 2025 7:35 AM EDT • 5 minute read

Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Today: College Football Week 1 Best Bets — Pictured: Mississippi State's running back Davon Booth (21) celebrates a touchdown. Photo by Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

My Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss prediction and college football picks explain why you should not count out the home team.

Kickoff at M. M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg, Miss., is set for noon ET (ESPN), but it's the visitors giving up 14.5 points. That's despite going just 2-10 last year, and presumably has a lot to do with Mississippi State being an SEC squad.

The Golden Eagles were even worse at 1-11 last year, they have a new head coach and an exciting transfer quarterback in Braylon Braxton. That's enough for my college football predictions for Week 1 to include a play on the cover.

🏈 Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss expert picks & predictions

College football expert picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Southern Miss (+390 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Against the spread pick: Southern Miss +13.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Over 61.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

📝 Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss preview & best bet

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🦅 Southern Miss +13.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pictured: New Southern Miss head coach Charles Huff and the many players he brought from Marshall are the difference in our Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss prediction. Photo by

Blake Shapen is back under center for the Bulldogs after suffering an injury early last season. And while he only threw one interception in four games, the Bulldogs went just 1-3 with him at quarterback, including a 41-17 home loss to Toledo.

For the Golden Eagles, change is the name of the game. Charles Huff takes over as head coach after a 10-3 season with Marshall. He brings with him quarterback Braylon Braxton, who threw for 1,624 yards, 19 touchdowns, and just two interceptions last season. Braxton also rushed for 610 yards and four touchdowns.

Last season, the Golden Eagles allowed 37.8 points per game, and the Bulldogs gave up 34.1. With Braxton at QB, the Golden Eagles are better positioned to exploit their matchup and potentially win. A $10 bet would pay $9.09, and the odds suggest a 52.38% chance that Southern Miss covers.

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💰 Best Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Braylon Braxton Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last season with the Thundering Herd, Braxton threw at least two touchdowns in six of his 11 games. Starting the season against a defense that gave up nearly five touchdowns per game, I expect him to have a huge performance for his new team.

The current odds of +130 suggest that Braxton has just a 43.48% chance of hitting this Over. However, these odds feel based on the brand that is Mississippi State, rather than the product they’re going to put on the field. The Bulldogs’ defense has new pieces, but it’s going to take more than one offseason for them to rebuild after a disastrous 2024.

The only real concern is Braxton running for touchdowns. He had four rushing touchdowns last season, and his rushing capabilities are why I’m not touching his passing yardage in this game. Still, to be able to bet $10 and win $13 at FanDuel is worth the small risk.

📊 Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss odds: Week 1

College football odds update live in real time.

📈 Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss betting odds analysis

The Bulldogs opened as 13-point betting favorites, and with 64% of bettors backing them to cover, the spread has grown to 14.5 at most major sportsbooks.

The total has also seen plenty of movement, opening at 57.5 points and trading as high as 61.5 on Saturday morning. With the number bumping up, we're seeing 63% of the wagers coming in on the Under.

🔢 Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss stats (2024)

Season stats courtesy of sports-reference.com.

Mississippi State (2-10)	Statistic (per game)	Southern Miss (1-11)
25.8	Points	15.2
34.1	Points allowed	37.8
-0.5	Turnover margin	-1.6
239.3	Passing yards	174.9
137.9	Rushing yards	108.6
239.5	Passing yards allowed	216.5
216.9	Rushing yards allowed	232.7
-0.5	Net yards per play	-2.1

🚑 Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss injuries

📺 Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss game info

When: Saturday, Aug. 30
Kickoff: Noon ET
Where: M.M. Roberts Stadium (Hattiesburg, Miss.)
How to watch: ESPN

❓ Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss FAQs

Who is favored to win Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss?

Mississippi State is heavily favored, with moneyline odds of -435 or better at every major sportsbook.

What is the spread for Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss?

The Bulldogs opened as 12.5-point favorites, and the spread has grown to 13.5.

What is the Over/Under for Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss?

The total is set at 61.5 with the majority of bettors backing the Under.

What are the best bets for Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss?

My best bets for Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss are the Golden Eagles +13.5 and Braylon Braxton Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130).

When is the Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss game?

Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss is Saturday at noon ET. The game will air live on ESPN.

How do college football odds work?

When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016 and has been sharing his NFL experience with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.