Mississippi State vs. Arizona State Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 2

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 7, 2024 12:30 PM EDT • 3 min 33 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen jumps into the end zone as we offer our best Mississippi State vs. Arizona State prediction. — Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen jumps into the end zone against Eastern Kentucky. Photo by Matt Bush via Imagn Images

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and Arizona State Sun Devils meet in a high-profile SEC vs. Big 12 matchup in a late Saturday night kickoff.

Our Mississippi State vs. Arizona State prediction looks at the spread and a player prop at the tail end of a loaded Saturday college football slate. The game kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Both teams easily dispatched inferior opponents in Week 1, as Mississippi State beat Eastern Kentucky 56-7, while Arizona State rolled over Wyoming 40-7.

While neither is a college football championship odds favorite, one of these programs will add a big early-season non-conference victory to its resume.

Before locking in your picks, find out the other teams we're backing in our college football Week 2 predictions.

Best Mississippi State vs. Arizona State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Spread pick: Mississippi State +5.5 (-108 via FanDuel) vs. Arizona State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Blake Shapen 25+ rushing yards (+185 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Mississippi State vs. Arizona State spread prediction: Week 2

Mississippi State to cover the spread: +5.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I included Mississippi State as one of my three college football upset picks for Week 2, but I am back to advise a hedge of sorts with taking the Bulldogs and the +5.5 points.

Look for Jeff Lebby to continue helping the Bulldogs' offense

The Bulldogs hired former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby as their new head coach, which is precisely what the program requires to return to a high-scoring juggernaut after being led last season by defensive coordinator Zach Arnett.

Lebby will likely re-instill many of the Air Raid principles that the Bulldogs successfully employed under Mike Leach.

With a defensive-minded coach last year, Mississippi State predictably fell off offensively, mustering just 10.0 points per game against top-40 defenses.

Sun Devils’ rankings are not impressive

Arizona State is the only Big 12 team projected to finish 77th or worse in Offensive and Defensive SP+.

You know last season's 3-9 record was terrible when one of the only things the Sun Devils could claim as a success was an offensive line that ranked in the top 60 in pressure rate allowed.

Head coach Kenny Dillingham brought in 60 transfers over the last two seasons, so playing at home is about all Arizona State can claim as an advantage.

Respectable money has clearly come in on the underdogs throughout the week, as Mississippi State has shortened from +6.5 to +5.5 despite less than two-thirds backing the point spread.

FanDuel offers the best price of our best sports betting sites, so I'll take full advantage. A winning $10 bet yields a $9.26 profit.

I also included Mississippi State in my college football upset picks for Week 2.

Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%

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Mississippi State vs. Arizona State player prop

Blake Shapen 25+ rushing yards (+185) ⭐⭐⭐

I am shocked to see Blake Shapen’s rushing-yard total so low, especially after he carried seven times for 44 yards and a touchdown against Eastern Kentucky.

With the Bulldogs rolling to a comfortable 49-point win last week, I didn't expect Shapen’s number to be called so often.

But perhaps Lebby and the new staff want to take advantage of Shapen’s success from his Baylor days when he ran for 29-plus yards in two of the final three games. He also had nine or more rushing attempts in five of his final seven games in a Baylor uniform.

Based on those trends, I'm more drawn to the 25 or more yards at DraftKings than the 17-plus option.

A $10 winning wager will return $18.50 in profits compared to $8.33 at the lower 17-yard threshold.

Best odds: +185 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 35.09%

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Mississippi State vs. Arizona State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Mississippi State vs. Arizona State game info

When: Saturday, Sept. 7
Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
Where: Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Ariz.)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 96 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph
Favorite: Arizona State (-225 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”