College Football Moneyline Picks Week 5: Predictions to Win This Week

I’ve made college football moneyline picks for 20 matchups on the Week 5 slate. Below, I highlight why Penn State is due for a letdown against Northwestern after squandering a late lead last week. I also explain why No. 8 Florida should keep rolling in a ranked vs. ranked matchup against No. 25 Missouri, and how injuries will impact the Old Dominion vs. Georgia State outcome. 

🏈 College football moneyline picks: Week 5

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.

🔥 Best college football moneyline picks: Week 5

Northwestern (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Penn State

Bet size: 1 unit

Penn State would likely be a much bigger favorite in this Friday night road Big Ten contest if not for squandering a 10-point lead to Wisconsin with under four minutes to play last week. But Northwestern shouldn’t be viewed as a similarly inferior opponent, as Wildcats head coach David Braun has things headed in the right direction. He became the first coach in school history to secure a bowl appearance in two of his first three seasons, and his 11 Big Ten wins in his first three years are the most by a Northwestern coach in that span.

I’m selling high on Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht after he began the season with a 9-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo. Wisconsin humbled him for a 41.4% completion percentage and 31.8 QBR, and Northwestern just held Indiana’s Josh Hoover (the FBS passing yards leader over the last two seasons) to just 201 passing yards and one completion of over 17 yards.

No. 8 Florida (-205 via DraftKings) vs. No. 25 Missouri

Bet size: 2 units

From 2022-25, Florida had two games where it scored 50-plus points. Through its first four games of the Jon Sumrall era this season, the Gators have three such games.

Florida easily covered as 3.5-point betting favorites in a 52-28 home win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss, which also snapped its 12-game losing streak to AP Top-5 teams. Entering the week, running back Jadan Baugh had five rushes of 20-plus yards (t-2nd most in FBS) and the most forced missed tackles in the SEC (20). Meanwhile, Missouri’s predominantly run-first offense isn’t built to play catch-up if Florida jumps out to an early lead.

The Tigers still miss the services of running back Ahmad Hardy, who led the SEC with 1,649 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last year. His absence isn’t enough to make up for the fact that this game is at home.

Georgia State (-118 via DraftKings) vs. Old Dominion

Bet size: 1 unit

Old Dominion went into last week’s game against Sun Belt favorite James Madison shorthanded as starting quarterback Quinn Henicle missed the game with an undisclosed injury. Still, the Monarchs were less than a touchdown underdog because oddsmakers believed in their defense, which returned 10 players who logged 200-plus snaps last year.

James Madison completely dominated Old Dominion’s defense for a 46-20 victory while totaling 405 yards and converting 21 first downs. And in Henicle’s absence, redshirt freshman Ryan Huff turned in a 30.3 QBR while getting no help from the team’s running game (28 rushing attempts for -14 yards). Even if Henicle returns this week, I am not sold on his performance from last year’s bowl win against South Florida, when he averaged just 3.6 yards per dropback.