College Football Best Bets for Week 5: Expert Picks & Predictions

Last week’s column was a mixed bag with a 1-1 record on both ATS and totals, but my college football best bets for Week 5 follow the same formula with two ATS and two O/U wagers. 

My college football Week 5 predictions expect Bill Belichick's first game facing No. 3 Notre Dame to be a defensive struggle. I also don't envision Marshall or UTEP scoring much against James Madison and New Mexico, respectively, but I vary my plays on a total and ATS play for those games.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 5

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +3.54 units

💰 Best college football bets this week

Notre Dame-North Carolina Under 47.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

One of the best defensive minds to ever coach football (Bill Belichick) meets one of college football’s most successful young head coaches who earned his fame as a standout defensive coordinator (Marcus Freeman). This matchup suggests Belichick is going to do everything he can to muck the game up and not let the game turn into a blowout, while Notre Dame’s defense continues to be rock solid.

Belichick reaffirmed that Billy Edwards Jr. is his starting quarterback despite coming off a 13-for-30 effort against Clemson and earning a career-low 46.3 PFF offensive grade. 40 of Edwards’ 78 pass attempts have traveled fewer than 10 yards, and that’s no way to make a living against a Notre Dame defense that has allowed 145.5 passing yards per game and 9.4 yards per reception.

🟢 Michigan State +10.5 (-121 via DraftKings)

This is our second straight pick of a game involving two defensive-minded head coaches (Pat Fitzgerald and Luke Fickell), and one where I’ll gladly take the points with the underdogs since points could be at a premium.

Wisconsin is being overvalued in this spot after coming back from a 10-point deficit in the final four minutes to beat then-No. 13 Penn State. The Nittany Lions were without their top playmaking wide receiver (Koby Howard), and Penn State’s offense was a shell of itself. In fact, it went three-and-out on four straight possessions to open the door for a Wisconsin comeback, and hadn’t had that many consecutive three-and-out possessions in five years.

FanDuel is a full point lower under the key number of +10 at +9.5, which justifies the juice at this higher number at DraftKings.

Marshall-James Madison Under 56.5 (-112 via FanDuel)

This Marshall-James Madison Sun Belt East football contest was one of my top ATS spread picks earlier in the week, but I’m also coming around to this being a low-scoring contest and adding a confident play on the Under.

James Madison’s defense has been rock solid and a main reason for the team’s 4-0 start, as it ranks in the top-10 in both Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed. Meanwhile, Marshall ranks in the bottom-10 in Havoc allowed, and the Thundering Herd will likely not do enough scoring to add to the chances of the Over cashing.

FanDuel is the only top sports betting site offering a total this high, as all others are a full point lower at 55.5. That is worth the slightly extra juice and 52.83% implied odds as an Under backer.

🐺 New Mexico -22.5 (-110 via bet365)

UTEP should not be counted on long sustained drives against the New Mexico defense, as it has converted just one of every four third-down attempts this season. The Miners also rank dead-last in the country in Havoc allowed. That is a scary proposition when facing a New Mexico defense that thrives on turnovers, forcing the third-most fumbles and recovering them at the second-highest rate.

If you buy into data from teams playing common opponents, the differences in these two teams’ results when playing Oklahoma are staggering (UTEP lost 51-0 to the Sooners while New Mexico lost 14-6).