Fever vs. Aces Prediction: WNBA Picks for Today, Oct. 1
Get your popcorn ready as I make my Fever vs. Aces prediction for Game 3 of this Round 1 series. Tonight, one of these teams' seasons will be finished, and the other will be my pick to emerge in a wide-open WNBA championship odds race.
The Aces, who are the defending champions, are used to these stakes. They are 4.5-point favorites over the Fever ahead of tipoff at 9 p.m. ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas on the USA Network.
🏀 Fever vs. Aces prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Aces -1.5 first-half spread (-110 via BetMGM) | 1u → 0.91u | The Aces posted a +12.7 first-half net rating in home games this year. |
| Fever Under 89.5 points (-120 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.42u | This elimination game will have a bit more defense. Plus, the Fever's scoring average typically drops on the road. |
| Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 3-pointers (+110 via FanDuel) | 1u → 1.1u | Jewell Loyd has hit multiple 3-pointers in 62.2% of her games this year, including both Round 1 matchups. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.43 units
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🏆 Who will win Fever vs. Aces?
Why are you asking me such a difficult question? I give the Aces the edge as the defending champions, but I project this game to come down to the wire in a four-point win over the Fever. Indiana's offense hasn't been as efficient on the road, where its scoring average has dropped by more than six points.
Score prediction: Aces 90, Fever 86
💰 Fever vs. Aces prediction & best bet
Aces -1.5 1H (-110)
Given the stakes of Thursday's contest, I expect a strong start from the Aces. They understand the intensity of elimination games better than anyone.
The Aces actually faced elimination twice last postseason. They held a halftime lead in in both instances, leading by a combined nine points.
Las Vegas was also extremely good at grabbing first-half leads at home during the regular season. The Aces ranked third in the league with a +12.7 net rating in the first half of home games. They led by 15 against the Fever in Game 1 on Sunday.
I'll settle for a two-point advantage on Thursday.
🔥 Best Fever vs. Aces player prop bet
Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 3-pointers (+110)
I'm as surprised as anyone that my favorite player prop in a star-studded elimination game is on Aces guard Jewell Loyd. But allow me to explain myself.
The Fever sent more double teams at A'ja Wilson in Game 2, forcing the ball out of her hands. Becky Hammon's quick counter was to surround Wilson with four shooters, which meant playing Loyd 31 minutes. Loyd knocked down two of her four long-range attempts in the loss.
Loyd doesn't have the same impact off the bench that she did last year, but she hits shots when the ball comes to her. Loyd has knocked down multiple triples in 62.2% of her games, including both Round 1 matchups.
I'll take this +110 price tag in a game that will be decided by big shots.
🚀 Fever vs. Aces same-game parlay
While I could see Indiana pulling off this upset, my Fever vs. Aces parlay sides with Las Vegas in Game 3. I've taken the Aces' first-half spread and parlayed it with Loyd to knock down multiple triples and Wilson to score 25-plus points. That could technically happen in a win or loss, but I'm more confident that the Aces will deliver.
💵 Fever vs. Aces SGP picks
- Aces -1.5 1H (-118)
- Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 3-pointers (+110)
- A'ja Wilson 25-plus points (-265)
Best odds: +343 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.34u)
📊 Live Fever vs. Aces odds
📺 How to watch Fever vs. Aces
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 1
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Las Vegas)
- TV: USA Network
- Streaming: N/A
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