Steelers vs. Browns Prediction: Thursday Night Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
My Steelers vs. Browns prediction is based on the market undervaluing Deshaun Watson and Cleveland's offense.
The Steelers will be looking to win a Thursday night game in Cleveland for the first time in franchise history, but they will have to do so against a Browns side that has been better than expected. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point betting favorite, with kickoff from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland set for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
🏈 Steelers vs. Browns picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 4 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Browns +2.5 (+100 via Hard Rock Bet) | 2 units to win 2 units |
| Over 38 (-110 via Hard Rock Bet) | 0.55 units to win 0.5 units |
Total wagered: 2.55 units | Max profit: +2.5 units
💰 Steelers vs. Browns prediction & best bet
Browns +2.5 (+100 via Hard Rock Bet)
Generally speaking, you don't want to overreact at the beginning of the season, as it's such a small sample size. However, my worry here is that the market is underreacting to how well the Browns have played over the past two games.
Watson was always a wild card coming into this season, and while he was most likely going to be a below-average starting quarterback, that hasn't been the case. I believe he'll continue to play at this pace now that he appears fully healthy after rehabbing an Achilles injury. Meanwhile, the Steelers' offense ranks 31st in EPA per play this season and 30th in success rate.
Browns +2.5 (+100 via Hard Rock Bet) is the best widely available line among the top sports betting sites. If the number moves, I would be comfortable playing Browns +1.5 (-105 or greater).
📡 SBR Edge
The Steelers rank 29th in EPA per pass, while the Browns rank 19th in the same stat.
Rodgers hasn't been airin' it out
A quarterback's yards per attempt (YPA) can be used to predict how productive an offense will be moving forward. While Watson ranks 16th in the NFL (min. 50 plays) with 7.16 YPA, Aaron Rodgers ranks 28th with just 6.19 YPA.
Watson has been a better quarterback than Rodgers by most metrics this season - their quarterback ratings are 62.3 and 42.4, respectively - so with this line anchored to Watson's preseason expectations, we're getting who I believe will be the better quarterback this season, at home, catching points.
Score prediction: Steelers 21, Browns 20
📊 Live Steelers vs. Browns odds
See the latest NFL odds for every Week 4 matchup.
Steelers vs. Browns opening odds
- Moneyline: Steelers -145 | Browns +125
- Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-115) | Browns +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 38 (-110) | Under 38 (-110)
💵 My betting record for NFL picks
All NFL picks have been tracked since Aug. 6.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-2 | +5.95 units ✅ | 101.1% ✅ |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +2.51 units ✅ | 105% ✅ |
| Totals | 1-0 | +2 units ✅ | 105% ✅ |
| Player props | 1-2 | +1.44 units ✅ | 90.6% ✅ |
📺 How to watch Steelers vs. Browns: Week 4
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 1
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
- TV: Prime Video
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