Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Our Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction takes a close look at a big Thursday night game as two 1–3 teams open Conference USA play. Western Kentucky is searching for its first FBS victory of the season after facing a brutal non-conference road slate, while New Mexico State looks to bounce back from a 42–18 blowout loss at home to rival New Mexico.
My pick is buying the visiting Hilltoppers to win outright because their quick passing game should overwhelm an Aggies defense coming off a miserable showing.
Tonight's kickoff from Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, N.M., is set for 8 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). New Mexico State enters as a 2.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Western Kentucky moneyline (+115 via BetMGM) | 1.0 units to profit +1.15 units |
| O/U: Under 56.5 (-106 via FanDuel) | 1.0 units to profit +0.94 units |
Total wagered: 2.0 units | Max profit: +2.09 units
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💰 Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Western Kentucky ML (+115 via BetMGM)
Taking +2.5 on an underdog rarely makes sense because it leaves you short of the key college football number of three. In a matchup between two 1–3 teams where either side can win outright, I’d rather take the plus-money payout on Western Kentucky.
The Hilltoppers’ record looks worse than it is after three straight road games against Nevada, No. 2 Georgia, and No. 4 Indiana. They returned home last week and crushed Mercyhurst 52–7.
Quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw for 301 yards and four touchdowns against New Mexico State last year and looked sharp again last week, finishing with 309 yards and four scores in less than three quarters.
The Aggies want to lean on James Jones, but their defense allows nearly 30 points per game and 7.4 yards per opponent drop back.
Take Western Kentucky to win outright at +115. I’d only consider the spread if it moves to +3 or better.
📡 SBR Edge
Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton is 8–4 straight up in Conference USA openers and has won six of his last seven, while Rodney Tisdale Jr. completed 30 of 38 passes for 301 yards and four touchdowns against New Mexico State in their last meeting.
Aggies defense cannot get off the field on late downs
The biggest edge is late-down execution. New Mexico State ranks 110th nationally on third down, allowing opponents to convert nearly 43% of their chances, and has given up five conversions on six fourth-down attempts.
That’s a bad matchup against a Western Kentucky offense built around quick throws. Jonathan Stafford Jr. has already caught 20 passes through four games and gives Rodney Tisdale Jr. a reliable option underneath.
The Aggies also have turnover issues. Trey Hedden threw two interceptions and lost a fumble against New Mexico before being benched, bringing his season total to five picks. Adam Damante finished the game and is now listed as a co-starter.
With Jaylen Lewis and Jaylen Wester leading the Western Kentucky defense, the “Takeaway Tops” should have chances to create turnovers and come away with the road win.
Score prediction: Western Kentucky 28, New Mexico State 24
📊 Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 5 matchup.
Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State opening odds
- Moneyline: Western Kentucky -108 | New Mexico State -112
- Spread: Western Kentucky +1.5 (-112) | New Mexico State -1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State: Week 5
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 1
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium (Las Cruces, N.M.)
- TV: CBSSN
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