Michigan vs. Wisconsin College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions

No. 14 Michigan is unbeaten but hasn’t played a very tough schedule yet. That changes on Saturday when the Wolverines visit Wisconsin in Big Ten action. Which way to lean at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks? 

Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers 

Saturday, October 02, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Camp Randall Stadium 

Is this the best team that Coach Jim Harbaugh has had at Michigan? We may get an inkling of that answer Saturday when the 14th-ranked Wolverines play their first road game of the season at moderately disappointing Wisconsin. It’s a noon kickoff on Fox. 

We all know that Ohio State has dominated Michigan of late, but in the past two seasons, the Badgers have beaten the Wolverines by a combined score of 84-25 and with an aggregate yardage advantage of 955-518. 

https://youtu.be/UwwqDr6y30M

Last year, Wisconsin was ranked 13th and Michigan unranked when the Badgers rolled 49-11 in Ann Arbor. UW held the ball for more than 40 minutes and rushed for 341 yards. Michigan still leads the overall series 51-17-1 and is 21-8-1 in Madison – although Wisconsin has won five straight at home in the series.  

The Wolverines are 1-6 ATS on the NCAAF odds in the past seven meetings.  

Wolverines Have Played Soft Schedule 

Michigan (4-0) has won its four games by a combined score of 161-47, but, again, all four were at home and against mediocre-to-bad teams. Last week, the Wolverines were nearly 20-point favorites but failed to cover in a 20-13 win over Rutgers despite being outgained 352-275.  

https://twitter.com/UMichFootball/status/1442636005186625541

Hassan Haskins scored both of Michigan's touchdowns – Blake Corum had been the offensive star the first three games and leads the team with 475 yards rushing and seven scores. Corum leads the NCAA in all-purpose yards (180.75 per game) and is ninth in rushing yards per game. That said, Haskins is the first Wolverine with at least one rushing touchdown in the first four games to start a season since Devin Gardner in 2013.  

QB Cade McNamara was 9-for-16 with 163 yards in the win. He has begun his career with 124 consecutive pass attempts without an interception. Michigan and BYU are the only teams yet to turn the ball over once. 

The Michigan Wolverines are led by coach Jim Harbaugh. Gaelen Morse/Getty Images/AFP.

Michigan’s 161 points scored through four games are the fifth-highest team total in the last 50 seasons (since 1976). UM has started 1-0 in the Big Ten for the sixth time in seven years under Harbaugh. The offensive line has allowed just one sack (third nationally) and nine tackles for loss (first) and is paving the way for a ground attack averaging 290.8 yards per game. Defensively, Aidan Hutchinson is tied for second in the NCAA with 5.5 sacks. 

UM is 5-11 ATS in its past 16 as a road dog on the NCAAF odds. 

Badgers Having QB Issues 

Wisconsin (1-2) is the only FBS school to face three opponents ranked in the Top 20 of the AP poll in its first four games this season. UW lost its opener 16-10 at home to then-No. 19 Penn State and then lost a neutral-site game last Saturday in Chicago 16-10 to No. 12 Notre Dame. 

The Badgers lead the nation in rushing defense at just 25.0 yards per game and held the Irish to only nine on 32 carries yet still got blown out. That’s because UW turned the ball over five times, with QB Graham Mertz picked off four times. He has been a massive disappointment with one TD and six picks overall.  

https://twitter.com/BadgerFootball/status/1442609193169539074?s=20

The highest-ranked quarterback recruit in program history, Mertz may lose his job with another bad outing here. Against ranked opponents in his career, Mertz is completing 53.9 percent of his passes with two touchdowns to 11 interceptions. However, UW doesn’t have a viable replacement for Mertz as backup Chase Wolf has thrown three interceptions in 12 pass attempts.  

After 12 tackles for loss against Notre Dame, including six sacks, the Badgers are averaging 8.3 tackles for loss per game. That would be the second-best rate in school history, behind the 1998 team that averaged 8.4 per game. 

Wisconsin looks for a third straight win over Michigan for the second time ever. It also happened in 1959, ’60, and ’62. UW is just 2-6 ATS in its past eight as a favorite. 

For the NFL pick, I actually like the total more than the side here in what should be a slugfest. 

NCAAF Pick:  (visit our Sportsbook Review)

NCAAF Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.