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Quarterback Deacon Hill of the Iowa Hawkeyes trips handing off the ball as we share our best Michigan vs. Iowa prediction.
Quarterback Deacon Hill of the Iowa Hawkeyes trips handing off to running back Leshon Williams against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images via AFP.

A trip to the College Football Playoff is on the line for the Michigan Wolverines as they square off with the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday, and we have you covered with our best Michigan vs. Iowa prediction based on the best college football odds at our best college football betting sites.

Michigan is just one win away from securing its third College Football Playoff berth in a row after earning a big victory against the rival Ohio State Buckeyes last week. It was the Wolverines' second straight game allowing at least 24 points, but they still boast the best scoring defense in football.  

Meanwhile, Iowa also owns a strong defense, entering this week’s game with the fourth-best scoring defense in the nation. However, can the 120th-ranked Hawkeyes' offense score enough to keep pace on Saturday?

To accompany our college football expert picks and our Michigan vs. Iowa CFB player props, here is our best Michigan vs. Iowa prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Michigan vs. Iowa prediction: Big Ten Championship

Iowa Under 0.5 touchdowns (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The total at our best college football betting sites for this game is set between 34.5 and 35.5. With the Wolverines favored by 22 points, the implied final score is 28-6. The Hawkeyes’ defense has only allowed 20 or more points once this season. While the Wolverines are the best team they’ll have faced, Michigan scoring four or more touchdowns is no guarantee.

Rather than making a play on the Over, we recommend playing the Hawkeyes to finish this game without a touchdown. They’re averaging just 1.7 touchdowns per game, which is the fourth-worst mark in college football. The Hawkeyes have scored more than 20 points just once in their last seven games. 

The Wolverines are allowing just 10.3 points per game. Though they have allowed each of their last two opponents to score 24 points, they hadn’t allowed more than 20 in any of their first 10 games this season. Their opponents are averaging just 1.2 touchdowns per game, which is third-best in college football behind Iowa and Ohio State.

You may want to consider playing the Hawkeyes’ team Under of 6.5 at one of our best college football betting sites however, this team averages 1.7 made field goals per game. If they can put any drives together, they’ll unlikely be able to finish them. Three points on any drive for Iowa in this game would be considered a win.

Therefore, there is a legitimate chance that the Hawkeyes make three field goals, but never get the ball inside the Michigan 10-yard line.


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Michigan vs. Iowa best odds

DraftKings (-130)

Under 0.5N/AN/AN/AN/A

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps with this prop right now. Most of the major sportsbooks offer the Hawkeyes’ team total Under 6.5 for a reasonable price, but we don’t think that’s worth a play, just in case they kick three field goals. 

This price probably won’t get any worse than it is now, so we recommend waiting to see what price the other sportsbooks offer when they finally list this prop. Anything at -110 or better would be ideal. Yet, this is so likely to happen, that the price of -130 is nothing to be worried about.

Michigan vs. Iowa odds

Michigan vs. Iowa odds analysis

The Wolverines opened as 21.5-point favorites. Though the Hawkeyes are allowing just 12.2 points per game, the spread has jumped up to 22 or 22.5 at four of our best sports betting apps. Since 74% of wagers are backing the Hawkeyes at the moment, it's unlikely that this number keeps climbing, especially with such a low total.

The total for this game opened at 34.5, and it has gone up to 35 or 35.5 at four of the best sports betting sites. Surprisingly, 73% of bets are on the Over despite the Hawkeyes’ offensive woes and the fact that these two teams rank in the top-five in scoring defense.

Michigan vs. Iowa game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors

Michigan vs. Iowa prediction made 11/30/2023 at 12:34 p.m. ET.

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