Michigan vs. Iowa Picks, Predictions College Football Week 5: Who Blinks First in Big Ten Battle?
The 4-0 Michigan Wolverines visit the 3-1 Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday as double-digit favorites. Check out our top Michigan-Iowa picks below.
The Wolverines got past Maryland by a 34-27 score last week but failed to cover the 17-point spread in their toughest test of the season to date. The Hawkeyes have won back-to-back games over Rutgers and Nevada after losing to rival Iowa State.
Michigan won each of the last two head-to-head meetings by a combined score of 52-6.
Check out all of our top college football Week 5 picks here.
Here are our Michigan-Iowa college football picks for Week 5 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Michigan vs. Iowa Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 1, 12 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
Weather: 66 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 14-mph winds
Michigan vs. Iowa Odds
Michigan vs. Iowa Odds Analysis
The Wolverines opened as 10-point road favorites and the consensus line has ticked up just half a point with only 51% of the cash backing Michigan.
There's been more movement on the Over/Under which has dropped from 44.5 to 42.5 with 63% of the tickets and 64% of the cash being wagered on the Under.
Michigan vs. Iowa Picks
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
Michigan vs. Iowa ATS Pick
Iowa +11 (-115) ★★★★
Michigan and Iowa are two teams with gaudy numbers on one side of the ball, but their strengths have yet to be legitimately tested.
Michigan has averaged 50 points per game, second-most in FBS, but three of their four games have come against defenses outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency, per ESPN’s College Football Power Index. Iowa’s defense is fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency, but has compiled its second-ranked defensive scoring average (6.7 PPG) against mostly bottom-barrel offenses.
So who blinks first: the Wolverines offense or the Hawkeyes defense?
In Michigan’s first road game, Iowa will turn this into a rock fight. The Wolverines boast a top-five passing defense, but Iowa doesn’t throw the ball, anyway. Michigan is slightly more vulnerable on the ground, where Iowa will make its hay in bleeding clock and covering this spread without reaching the 20-point threshold.
Michigan vs. Iowa O/U Pick
Under 42.5 (-105) ★★★
As the strongest defense the Wolverines will have faced by far, the Hawkeyes can hold down Michigan’s offense more effectively than Maryland. The Terps rank narrowly inside the top 50 in defensive efficiency and allowed 34 points at Michigan.
The Hawkeyes showed enough life offensively in scoring 27 points at Rutgers last week that getting a touchdown or two seems plausible. Anything more against a Michigan defense allowing 244.8 yards per game defensively (fourth in FBS) sounds more like a pipe dream.
The road environment and the effectiveness of the Iowa defense should limit the Wolverines. Both teams rank outside the FBS top 100 in seconds per play, meaning possessions are going to be severely limited. I expect the score to be Michigan 23, Iowa 13 in a game that the Wolverines will feel fortunate to survive.
Michigan vs. Iowa Prop Pick
Petras Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+115) ★★★
Although I picked Iowa to cover the spread, don’t mistake that stance for a belief that the Hawkeyes offense is going to be effective, particularly through the air. Spencer Petras has just one passing touchdown through four games this season and has not eclipsed 200 pass yards in any game.
Though Michigan has allowed three passing touchdowns to just two on the ground this season, the proclivities of the Iowa offense - four rushing scores and just one through the air - could certainly prevent the Hawkeyes from finding paydirt via the arm of Petras in this game.
Michigan allows just 135.8 passing yards per game. Petras has maxed out at 26 passing attempts in a game this season. Unless Michigan solves the Iowa defense and stakes out a huge lead to force Petras and the Iowa offense to play outside of their comfort zone, this plus-money prop has a decent shot of hitting.
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Michigan-Iowa picks made 9/28/2022 at 12 p.m. ET
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