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Taulia Tagovailoa of the Maryland Terrapins looks to pass against the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Taulia Tagovailoa of the Maryland Terrapins looks to pass against the Penn State Nittany Lions. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images via AFP.

Michigan has won six straight games both straight up and against the spread when facing Maryland since the Terps won the first Big Ten meeting between the teams back in 2014. Check out our top picks as Maryland visits Michigan in Week 4.

Last week, Maryland (2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) was able to overcome a three-point halftime deficit to get past SMU, 34-27. Having completed a perfect nonconference portion of their schedule, the Terrapins only need to win three Big Ten games to obtain bowl eligibility.

Much like Saturday’s opponent, Michigan (2-1 ATS, 0-2-1 O/U) is also off to a 3-0 start. The Wolverines had a pathetically easy nonconference schedule. Michigan obliterated each of Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn while officially naming this season’s starting quarterback in the process.

Here are our college football picks for the Week 4 matchup between Maryland and Michigan (odds via DraftKings Sportsbooks, BetMGM, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Maryland vs. Michigan Game Info

Date: Saturday, Sept 24, noon ET
TV: FOX
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Weather: 58℉, 19.0% chance of precipitation, 3-8 mph winds S

Maryland vs. Michigan Odds Analysis

Initial lookahead lines opened this game with Michigan priced as a 20-point home favorite. Despite the overwhelming majority of public tickets siding with the fourth-ranked Wolverines, the spread moved heavily in favor of Maryland so far this week. After dipping to a market-wide low of Michigan -16.5, several shops have ticked back up to Wolverines -17.

Speaking of the public support that has gone in Michigan’s favor, 81% of all ATS bets at DraftKings are on the home favorite. Considering this lopsided ticket count, bettors should be wary of the fact that the line has moved in the Terps’ favor.

While the point spread has gotten smaller, the game total has actually increased by a significant amount. The opening Over/Under of 59.5 has grown to a current consensus of 65.5. At DraftKings, 75% of the handle is on the Over.

Maryland vs. Michigan Picks

  • Spread: Maryland +17 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★
  • Total: Over 65 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★
  • Prop: Maryland team total between 21-30 (+185 via PointsBet) ★★

Maryland vs. Michigan ATS Pick

Maryland +17 (-110) ★★★

Michigan won the Big Ten title and reached the College Football Playoff a season ago, but a lot has changed in the months since. By virtue of playing a pitiful nonconference schedule, it’s tough to know for sure just how good the 2022 Wolverines truly are. 

Looking back on the history of this divisional matchup, Michigan has thoroughly dominated. Since winning the first matchup outright upon joining the Big Ten back in 2014, Maryland has since lost six straight and failed to cover each time. However, with nine starters back on offense, including a game-changer at quarterback, the Terrapins have the talent to put up a fight.

Although Maryland didn’t play an overwhelming nonconference schedule, one could argue that matchups against Buffalo, Charlotte, and SMU were all tougher than anything Michigan encountered. Junior quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has played very well thus far and is more than capable of making things happen against a tough Wolverines defense. It certainly helps that he has a veteran group of receivers serving as his top weapons.

With Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh electing to start J.J. McCarthy over Cade McNamara this season, there are still some unknowns with regard to Michigan’s offense. After allowing 39 points per game in Big Ten play last season, it will be tough for Maryland’s defense to not improve. 

Provided that the Terps can hold their own at the line of scrimmage, this game should wind up being a lot closer than many are expecting.

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Maryland vs. Michigan O/U Pick

Over 65 (-110) ★★

Given that opening lines priced this total at 59.5, the best of the number has long since dried up. That said, bettors can still obtain a half-point of value over the rest of the market by targeting the even 65 at BetMGM. 

Last year’s matchup between these teams featured 77 total points scored. Of course, Michigan accounted for 59 of those on its own. Tagovailoa was sacked twice and thrown off his game from the start by the top-notch Wolverines’ defense. Given that Michigan returns only four starters on that side of the ball, it could prove difficult to slow down the Terps’ offense to the same degree on Saturday.

So far this season, Michigan’s defense has allowed only 17 points. However, it’s hard to argue that home games against the likes of Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn are at all indicative of what this unit will look like against more formidable Big Ten opposition. Keep in mind that the Wolverines lost their top two pass-rushers from a year ago to the NFL. The secondary is also less talented and far less experienced. 

Taking all of these factors into consideration, one has to believe that Tagovailoa and an experienced Maryland offense will be able to put up some points. With the assumption that Michigan’s offensive line will dictate terms on the other side of the ball, it suddenly becomes difficult to place confidence in either defense getting many stops.

Maryland vs. Michigan Prop Pick

Maryland team total between 21-30 (+185) ★★

Given the diminished state of Michigan’s defense compared to a year ago and all of the experience that Maryland returns on offense, a solid points output is expected from the Terps. At DraftKings and FanDuel, Maryland’s team total prop of 23.5 is juiced to the Over. Rather than laying a -125 price, it’s worth considering the team total bands available via PointsBet.

Considering that the Terrapins scored 31 points against Buffalo and 34 against SMU, it may prove difficult to top the 30-point threshold against Michigan. However, Tagovailoa has several playmakers who can win against the Wolverines’ secondary. Maryland can very realistically land between 21 and 28 points in this game. This +185 price is a return worth pursuing.

Where to Bet on Maryland vs. Michigan Picks

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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Maryland-Michigan picks made 9/21/2022 at 1:46 p.m. ET