Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern Predictions & Odds Week 9: Another Shootout in Store?
Two in-state Sun Belt rivals meet on Thursday when the Georgia Southern Eagles host the Georgia State Panthers, and we offer our best Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern prediction based on the best college football odds.
Georgia State is 6-1 overall and 3-1 in Sun Belt play and needs to extend its win streak to three games to remain within one game of the undefeated James Madison Dukes before their Week 10 showdown. In Week 8, the Panthers secured a 20-17 road victory against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, pulling off an outright win as eight-point underdogs.
Georgia Southern (5-2, 2-1) got redemption for their only conference loss of the season, a 41-13 defeat against James Madison, with a 38-28 victory at home over UL Monroe last week. The Eagles are one of four teams in Sun Belt play, with only one conference loss this season.
Georgia State has clinched victory in the previous three meetings with these teams, winning by a margin of eight points or less in each of those matchups, including one game that occurred in Statesboro.
Among our college football predictions for Week 9, here is our best Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern prediction: Week 9
Over 62 (-110 via Caesars, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Georgia State and Georgia Southern combined for 74 points in last year’s 41-33 track meet, and we expect another shootout in Clay Helton’s second year in this rivalry as Eagles head coach. His pass-happy attack improved the team’s offense from 121st to 40th in SP+ in his first year.
Quarterback Davis Brin of the Eagles has seamlessly taken over from last year's quarterback Kyle Vantrease, who threw for 4,253 yards and 27 touchdowns. Brin currently leads the Sun Belt with 2,122 passing yards and is tied for third with 14 touchdowns. He is anticipated to succeed against a Panthers secondary that, entering last week, was ranked outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate and was 112th in PFF’s Coverage metric. While the Panthers' defense excels in limiting ground yards to 118.9 per game (fourth-fewest in the Sun Belt), we anticipate Helton’s offense to focus more on aerial attacks.
Conversely, Georgia State disappointingly ran for 129 yards and 3.3 yards per carry against a Louisiana defense that entered its matchup ranked 124th in Rushing Success Rate. We expect the Panthers running game to get going against a Georgia Southern defense that is still trying to gel after losing nine of 12 players who saw 300-plus snaps last year. The Eagles rank as the Sun Belt’s eighth-best defensive team in terms of Line Yards and could be gashed on the ground, like when James Madison ran for 5.4 yards per carry against them en route to a 41-point outburst.
This is a three-star play because despite scoring just 13 points against JMU’s stout defense two games back, we walked away encouraged that Georgia Southern also converted 12-of-21 third downs and both of its fourth-down opportunities and should sustain drives against Georgia State.
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Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern best odds
Caesars, DraftKings, bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 62.5 | 62.5 | 62 | 62 |
| Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) |
Over bettors have their choice of three of our best sports betting apps for the best number available, as Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 offer a total a half-point lower than their top competitors.
We would play this Over up to 62.5, but not much higher, as the Under has cashed in each of Georgia State’s last four road games in October.
Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern odds
Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern odds analysis
Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 all arrived at a total of 62 from an opening number of 62.5, while the line movement at FanDuel has been the opposite, ticking up from 62 to 62.5. Sixty-two percent of the early wagers have backed the Over.
Our best sports betting sites are in unison with a spread of Georgia Southern -2.5. However, different sportsbooks are juiced to either side, as DraftKings charges a price of -108 to back the favorites, while FanDuel is slightly higher at -112. Georgia State is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games against conference opponents.
Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, GA
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 82 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph E
Georgia State-Georgia Southern prediction made 10/23/2023 at 4:09 p.m. ET.
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