College Football Playoff Odds 2025: Miami Among Best Long-Shot Bets After Week 12

As the college football regular season's penultimate week approaches, the College Football Playoff odds continue to see movement ahead of the official CFP bracket reveal on Sunday, Dec. 7, following conference championship weekend on Dec. 5 and 6.

While some teams are essentially CFP locks coming out of Week 12 of the college football season - Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss have had their odds pulled - and others have College Football Playoff odds so short there's little value betting on them (Georgia, Texas Tech), there's still several plus-money programs worth backing. 

With so many Big Ten and SEC teams expected to make the CFP, the best long-shot bets come from the Group of Six, Big 12, and ACC.

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🎯 Best long-shot bets to make the College Football Playoff

👑 James Madison (+250)

• CFP ranking after Week 11: Unranked
• SP+ ranking: No. 25 (No. 33 offense, No. 25 defensse, No. 105 special teams)
• Remaining schedule: vs. Washington State, at Coastal Carolina
• Path to the CFP: Go undefeated and win the Sun Belt while the American Conference eats itself alive

It wasn't long ago that it looked like the American Conference champ would earn the Group of Six bid in the College Football Playoff, but as the league cannibalizes itself, could the CFP selection committee be forced to look elsewhere? You don't have to squint to see why James Madison deserves the fifth conference champion spot if Bob Chesney's team can win out.

The Dukes have one loss and it came at the hands of a Power Four team (Louisville) way back on Sept. 5 before star QB Alonza Barnett III truly looked healthy (he tore his ACL late last season). Since that 14-point loss, which JMU covered as a 15-point road underdog, the Dukes have won eight straight games, seven of which were by double digits.

In what was viewed as their toughest Sun Belt conference matchup of the season against Old Dominion, James Madison won 63-27 ... not bad for a program that lost a ton of talent to Indiana when Curt Cignetti left two years ago to take the head job with the Hoosiers. Chesney, who will get a P4 job sooner rather than later, has rebuilt this team in his image with one of the best defenses in the G6.

If the American Conference Championship were today, it would be Tulane vs. Navy, according to our college football championship game tracker, and JMU is better in every advanced metric than both of those programs. With South Florida already having three losses after losing to the Midshipmen in Week 12, North Texas is the only team I'd be worried about taking the spot from JMU, but the Mean Green need help to get into the conference championship.

Between how dynamic Barnett is and a dominant G6 defense, the selection committee may feel more comfortable going with a 13-1 dominant Sun Belt champ, whose one loss came to a P4 program, over a two or three-loss American Conference champ. If they go with the Dukes, a $10 bet pays a $25 profit.

🐾 BYU (+350)

• CFP ranking after Week 11: No. 12 (second-highest in Big 12)
• SP+ ranking: No. 17 (No. 26 offense, No. 18 defense, No. 13 special teams)
• Remaining schedule: at Cincinnati, vs. UCF
• Path to the CFP: Beat Cincinnati and UCF to qualify for the Big 12 Championship (the Cougars don't have to necessarily win the Big 12 to get into the CFP)

There is no better bet at our best college football betting sites to make the College Football Playoff right now than BYU. The Cougars' path to the CFP is not complicated at all and won't depend on the selection committee being educated nearly as much as JMU will, and BYU doesn't need nearly the same amount of help as my next best long-shot bet.

While the Cougars did lose to Texas Tech by 22 points a few weeks ago to end Kalani Sitake's team's undefeated season, the Red Raiders could end up with a top-four seed in the CFP. Everyone knows how much money was poured into building that roster at Texas Tech to turn the Red Raiders into a college football national championship odds contender, so I don't expect the committee to punish BYU much if it loses to Tech again in the Big 12 Championship.

So as long as BYU beats a Cincinnati team that was just upset at home by Arizona and a putrid UCF squad, they'll be in the conference championship. Win it and they're in, lose it and they're still probably in at 11-2, especially considering they already beat Utah in the Holy War.

With how bad the ACC is, the Big 12 seems destined to earn two CFP bids. So as long as Bear Bachmeier, Chase Roberts, and the Cougars' defense keep beating up lesser opponents, they'll get in and turn a $10 bet into a $35 profit.

🌴 Miami (+450)

• CFP ranking after Week 11: No. 15 (highest in ACC)
• SP+ ranking: No. 10 (No. 17 offense, No. 12 defense, No. 20 special teams)
• Remaining schedule: at Virginia Tech, at Pittsburgh
• Path to the CFP: Win out, and either hope the CFP selection committee puts two ACC teams in, or if a combo of Georgia Tech, Virginia, and SMU loses a game (or two) to get the Hurricanes into the ACC Championship

The hardest team to gauge in the CFP race is Miami because it feels nearly impossible for the Hurricanes to win the ACC Championship, hence their +800 odds imply just an 11.11% probability they'll win the conference. However, following Week 11, the CFP selection committee ranked Miami higher than any other ACC team, even though their two conference losses put them behind four other teams in the ACC standings.

While Miami will play Pitt, and likely be a major favorite, they don't play the other three teams ahead of them in the ACC (Georgia Tech, Virginia, and SMU). And it's unlikely that those three programs will lose enough over the last two weeks of the regular season to push the 'Canes into the ACC Championship. So, why is Miami a worthwhile long shot?

For one, there's just not that many great plus-money bets. But more importantly, the selection committee clearly likes Miami, and rightfully so, with the Hurricanes being the most talented team in the conference on paper and being the highest rated by all advanced metrics. Mario Cristobal's team would be a potentially lethal matchup in the CFP, too.

The Hurricanes have a veteran QB in Carson Beck, plenty of dynamic playmakers like Malachi Toney, a violent offensive line, and a loaded defense led by Rueben Bain Jr., who should be in the Heisman Trophy odds conversation as one of the best defensive players in the country.

Will the talent (and brand) be enough for the selection committee to put the Hurricanes into the CFP as an at-large? If a few SEC teams drop rivalry games, Miami will have a chance, and it only helps that the 'Canes are already ranked so highly, even with losses to Louisville and SMU.

If Miami does get in, which it has a higher probability of doing than winning the conference (18.18%), a $10 bet pays a $45 profit.

🗓️ College Football Playoff schedule

❓ College Football Playoff FAQs

How many teams make the College Football Playoff?

The College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams last season, with the top five ranked conference champions automatically qualifying for the CFP. The College Football Playoff selection committee decides the remaining seven at-large bids. 

The four highest-ranked teams will receive a first-round bye in the playoff, with the CFP switching to straight seeding this year.

What teams are in the College Football Playoff rankings?

The College Football Playoff selection committee revealed the second rankings following Week 11, with the 12 teams in the initial CFP bracket consisting of: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas, Miami, and South Florida.

When are the College Football Playoff rankings revealed?

The second College Football Playoff rankings were revealed by the committee on Tuesday, Nov. 11, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. New rankings will continue to be revealed every Tuesday (Nov. 18, Nov. 25, and Dec. 2) until selection day on Sunday, Dec. 7, when the official CFP bracket will be revealed. 

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.

The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.