Central Michigan vs. Toledo Prediction, Tonight: Week 12 Picks & Odds
Just 3-3 in its last six games, Toledo looks to get back on track when it takes on Central Michigan on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU) from the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio.
- Our Central Michigan vs. Toledo prediction expects the Rockets to look like the perennial MAC power they have been in past seasons
- Despite the Rockets' inconsistent season, they're still alive in the MAC Championship odds race
- With Toledo being viewed as talented enough to earn the G5 College Football Playoff odds earlier in the year, it's no surprise they're a 15.5-point favorite
In one of six MACtion games that are part of our Week 12 college football predictions, we think Jason Candle's team will flex its offensive muscles.
Don't forget to check out all of our MACtion coverage for Tuesday with our Ball State vs. Buffalo prediction and Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green prediction.
Central Michigan vs. Toledo odds movement
Toledo opened as a 13.5-point favorite with the line seeing moving as far as three points in Toledo''s direction before bouncing back. The Rockets are -14.5 as kickoff approaches.
Central Michigan has 57% of the money on it covering with 43% backing Toledo. Meanwhile, 65% of the money is on the Over, with the game total hovering around 52.
Best Central Michigan vs. Toledo picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Toledo -15.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Central Michigan ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Jerjuan Newton anytime touchdown scorer (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Central Michigan vs. Toledo against the spread prediction: Week 12
Toledo to cover the spread: -15.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Central Michigan vs. Toledo opening odds:
- Central Michigan: +13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Toledo: -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Backing the Rockets’ consistency
Toledo beat Central Michigan 32-17 on the road last season with a dominant rushing performance. The Rockets ran for 261 yards and averaged 6.1 yards per carry, which proved to be the difference in a game where they only out-gained the Chippewas by 23 total yards.
With a win this week, Toledo would clinch a winning record. That would bring its streak of consecutive seasons without a losing record to 14, the fifth-longest among FBS teams.
Meanwhile, Rockets head coach Jason Candle would become Toledo’s all-time winningest coach with just three more wins this season.
Toledo’s explosive passing attack
With Dequan Finn under center last year, Toledo was a much more run-heavy offense. Finn attempted just 17 passes for 97 yards in last season's win at Central Michigan.
This year, Toledo leads the MAC in passing offense (261.3 yards per game) and is third in passing efficiency. Quarterback Tucker Gleason leads the conference in passing yards and is second in total offense.
The Rockets are well-rested
Toledo had three extra days to prepare for this matchup, having last played on Nov. 2, while Central Michigan lost to Bowling Green on Nov. 5.
Since 2023, the Rockets are 4-2 ATS when they have a rest advantage, while Central Michigan has failed to cover a game on the road this season (0-3-1 ATS).
This line broke through the key number of -14 throughout the weekend and into Monday morning and has even reached a new key number of -17 at DraftKings. That makes the -15.5 at BetMGM much more desirable in comparison.
A $10 winning wager at BetMGM’s -110 odds would profit $9.09.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Central Michigan vs. Toledo best bet
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Jerjuan Newton anytime touchdown scorer (-120) ⭐⭐⭐
Wide receiver Jerjuan Newton hauled in two touchdowns to give him 31 for his career against Bowling Green on Oct. 26 setting the all-time mark for a Rockets wide receiver.
Newton’s 10 touchdown receptions this season are a career-high, and he entered the weekend with the second-highest touchdown total among all FBS receivers. He also ranks top-nine in Toledo history in career receptions and yards.
This is a three-star play, as Gleason has matched his career-high with three touchdown passes on four occasions this year. I would make this a more confident four-star play if Toledo did not rank 117th nationally with a 75.7% scoring rate in the red zone.
The best value of the top sports betting sites that have released anytime touchdown scorer odds to this point is at bet365, as DraftKings charges a slightly higher -125 price.
Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Central Michigan vs. Toledo odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Central Michigan vs. Toledo game info
- When: Tuesday, Nov. 12
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Glass Bowl Stadium (Toledo, Ohio)
- How to watch: ESPNU
- Weather: 41 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph E
- Favorite: Toledo -15.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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