Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Prediction, Picks & Odds: Western Michigan Looks for Upset
Two MAC Championship odds contenders battle in Tuesday's Week 12 action, with Western Michigan and Bowling Green entering the week at 4-1 in MAC play.
The spread has increased in Bowling Green's favor in the lead-up to tonight's clash, moving from -8.5 to -9 or -9.5 at our best college football betting sites.
Our Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green prediction believed the underdog visitors would cover the 8.5-point spread, so adding a half or full point on the favorites is even better news for those looking to back Western Michigan before kickoff.
The game starts at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2), and the below picks are part of our Week 12 college football predictions.
Best Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Western Michigan +8.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Bowling Green ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Connor Bazelak Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-185 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green against the spread prediction: Week 12
Western Michigan to cover the spread: +8.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green opening odds:
- Western Michigan: +7.5 (-110)
- Bowling Green: -7.5 (-110)
After Bowling Green covered the spread in the season opener against FCS Fordham, it’s been a disappointing year to back the Falcons in their home contests.
Big home spreads have bitten Bowling Green
Bowling Green is 0-3 ATS at home against FBS foes. In each case, the Falcons came in as heavy favorites but fell short of covering in those games by an average margin of 9.83 points per game.
Western Michigan is 2-1 outright in road games against Group of Five opponents, with its lone loss in that sample coming by seven points at Marshall. Though Bowling Green has the edge in FPI, I prefer leaning into potential variance with lower-quality teams by taking what feels like an outsized number of points relative to recent trends.
The spread is listed at Western Michigan +8.5 with -110 odds everywhere aside from DraftKings, which makes WMU backers pay inflated -112 odds on the same line.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green best bet
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Connor Bazelak Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-185) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bowling Green’s point total across several of our best sportsbooks sits at 34.5, implying that even on a night where the Falcons fall short of expectations offensively, they should still be in line to score.
Western Michigan has allowed opposing quarterbacks to go Over 1.5 passing touchdowns in five of its last six games, including on four of five occasions in MAC play over that span.
Connor Bazelak has thrown for multiple passing touchdowns four times this season and has gotten there in two of his past three games. Play this prop at Caesars to pay less juice at -185 compared to the -195 odds at DraftKings and bet365.
Best odds: -185 via Caesars | Implied probability: 64.91%
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Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green game info
- When: Tuesday, Nov. 12
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Doyt L. Perry Stadium (Bowling Green, Ohio)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 48 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 17 mph NW
- Favorite: Bowling Green -8.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
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