Fresno State vs. USC Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: College Football Week 1 Odds
My best Fresno State vs. USC prediction focuses on the No. 14 USC offense against a defense that has yet to play this season. If you're box-score watching, you'll see that USC only defeated San Jose State 42-26 last week. However, that game was 35-3 before USC benched many key starters entering the fourth quarter.
USC is favored by 21.5 points ahead of Friday's 9 p.m. ET game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles. The game will air on FOX and stream on FOX One.
🏈 Fresno State vs. USC picks & odds: Week 1
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| USC -21.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 2u → 1.82u | Fresno State's inexperienced quarterback won't be able to keep up with Jayden Maiava. |
| Over 51.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 0.5u → 0.46u | USC's offense can hit this total on their own, but I'm only risking 0.5 units because I worry about Fresno State's offense. |
| Trent Mosley anytime touchdown scorer (+110 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.1u | Mosley dominated Week 0, and he now faces a defense that allowed 18 receiving touchdowns last season. |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 3.38 units
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💰 Fresno State vs. USC prediction & best bet
USC -21.5 (-110)
Last week, Jayden Maiava completed 25 of his 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns, as he helped USC build a 32-point lead. Fresno State finished with the second-best pass defense last year, allowing just 153.8 yards per game. Yet, I don't expect Fresno State to slow down Maiava. Even if the Bulldogs do, USC has a great backfield, led by King Miller and Waymond Jordan, that rushed for 164 yards last week.
Last week, USC's starting defense allowed just three points through three quarters. That's bad news for Fresno State quarterback Jayden Mandal, who has just nine collegiate pass attempts.
Score prediction: USC 42 Fresno State 10
🙌 Fresno State vs. USC touchdown scorer prediction
Trent Mosley to score a touchdown (+110)
Both Miller and Jordan have odds of -140 or more to score in this game, so I'm turning my attention to USC's receivers. Mosley was Maiava's favorite target last week, catching seven passes for 118 yards and a touchdown.
As good as the Fresno State defense was against the pass last season, the Bulldogs still allowed 18 passing touchdowns. That was tied for 63rd in the nation.
Make sure to shop around before placing a wager. At the time of writing, Mosley's price is +110 at DraftKings, but -150 at bet365.
🚀 Fresno State vs. USC same-game parlay
I don't like Fresno State's offense entering this game, which is why I love USC to cover as 21.5-point favorites. However, it's also why I'm a little more skeptical of the total. Rather than parlaying the Over with the spread, I'm parlaying the spread with Mosley to score. In his first collegiate game, Mosley dominated, and to be frank, the competition is only slightly better this week than last week.
💵 Fresno State vs. USC SGP picks
- USC -21.5
- Trent Mosley anytime touchdown scorer
Best odds: +224 via FanDuel (1u → 2.24u)
💵 My betting record for college football picks
All college football picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Aug. 29.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-9 | -7.04 units ❌ | -59.9% ❌ |
| Game picks | 1-1 | -0.59 units ❌ | -23.6%❌ |
| Player props | 1-6 | -4.95 units ❌ | -63.8% ❌ |
| Parlays | 0-2 | -1.50 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Fresno State vs. USC: College football strategy
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions.
USC opened as 22.5-point favorites, but the public has backed Fresno State enough to drop the spread to 21.5. To me, this feels like a case of looking at the final score from USC's Week 0 game instead of actually watching the contest. Therefore, I'm going to fade the public and confidently back USC to cover, as I don't expect the Trojans to relax in this game as they did in Week 0. That said, I'm risking just a half-unit on the Over, as I'm worried that Fresno State's offense is unprepared for this game.
📊 Live Fresno State vs. USC odds: Week 1
Our live Fresno State vs. USC odds update in real time.
📺 How to watch Fresno State vs. USC: Week 1
- Date: Friday, Sept. 4
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: FOX One
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