Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: Week 11
The Bowling Green Falcons and Central Michigan Chippewas ignite the MACtion with the opening game of a MAC doubleheader on Election Night.
- Bowling Green is 5-1 straight up in its last six road contests at Central Michigan since 2002
- The Falcons hold a 24-19 record in the all-time series
- After starting 1-3, Bowling Green has notched wins during three of its previous four outings
The Falcons enter as significant double-digit road favorites, and our Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan prediction expects the Falcons to keep sizzling and cruise to a resounding victory. Kickoff from Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Mich. is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday night, with the game airing on ESPN2.
A short time later the second game of the doubleheader begins, and our Philip Wood gets you ready for that one with his Miami (OH) vs. Ball State prediction.
Best Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Bowling Green -11.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Central Michigan ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Terion Stewart Over 84.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan against the spread prediction: Week 11
Bowling Green to cover the spread: -11.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan opening odds:
- Bowling Green: -10.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Central Michigan: +10.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Falcons’ opportunistic defense
Bowling Green’s recent improvement is mainly due to its opportunistic defense. The Falcons are +5 in turnover margin over the last two games thanks to five interceptions after forcing just two turnovers total over the first six games.
Winning the turnover battle again on Tuesday will help them be victorious. Since 2000, Bowling Green is 4-1 against Central Michigan when winning the turnover battle and 2-2 when turning the ball over more than the Chippewas.
Wind can make Central Michigan one-dimensional
The forecast in Mount Pleasant on Tuesday night calls for wind gusts of over 30 mph, which can wreak havoc on a passing attack. And while that would seem to favor Central Michigan, who has averaged 183.4 rushing yards per game, it should also force the Bowling Green defense to stack the box more and leave its cornerbacks on an island.
The offensive results are not pretty when Central Michigan’s running game is limited. There is no better evidence of that than in its last game, when it totaled just seven points in a 46-7 road loss to Miami (OH) after averaging just 2.9 yards per carry on 36 rushing attempts.
The wind will also bring into play Falcons running back Terion Stewart, who ranks fourth among FBS running backs with broken tackles rushing per game (he has 41 broken tackles over six games).
Buying into Bowling Green’s experience
The Falcons seem to be hitting their stride midseason, which is a sign of what experienced teams do.
Bowling Green entered the year as one of 27 FBS teams to return its head coach, both of its coordinators, and its starting quarterback from last season. And of those 27, Falcons quarterback Connor Bazelak has the most career passing yards of any team’s starting quarterback.
The spread has done nothing but move in Bowling Green’s favor and is as high as -12 at several of our best sports betting apps. I am taking advantage of the best number and price at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan best bet
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Terion Stewart Over 84.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With wind gusts of over 30 mph projected in Mount Pleasant, I am looking to back Bowling Green’s running game instead of its passing attack.
Among those with a minimum of 100 carries, Terion Stewart ranks 21st in yards per attempt after contact (3.85). Stewart’s 11 forced missed tackles in the season opener against Fordham were the fourth-most by any player in the country that week.
Stewart has carried the ball 14 or more times in four of six starts this season and has run for 99-plus yards three times in those games. And he is gaining momentum entering this week, averaging 112.5 rushing yards per game in the last two contests.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan Odds movement
There's been a sizable shift toward Bowling Green, with the spread moving from an opening number of 10.5 to now 14.5.
Meanwhile, the total has plunged while moving from 51.5 to 48.5, and Bowling Green has risen from -450 to about -700 on the moneyline.
Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan game info
- When: Tuesday, Nov. 5
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Kelly/Shorts Stadium (Mount Pleasant, Mich.)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 63 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 22 mph SW
- Favorite: Bowling Green -11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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