Army vs. Air Force Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 10 Betting Preview

Air Force looks to remain in the hunt for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy with a win over Army, but my Army vs. Air Force prediction has more confidence in the total after the spread jumped the fence to the Falcons as a 1.5-point betting favorite. Kickoff from Falcon Stadium at the USAF Academy, Colo., is set for noon ET on Saturday, airing on CBS.

My college football Week 10 predictions back this game’s total at a better number than what was available earlier in the week.

📊 Army vs. Air Force odds: Week 10

See the latest college football odds for every game in Week 10

✅ Army vs. Air Force expert picks

See our experts' college football picks for every Week 10 game.

🏈 Army vs. Air Force preview & score prediction

The underdog has covered the spread in nine consecutive games between Army and Air Force. But after this line jumped the fence from Army being a small favorite to Air Force teetering between a one and 1.5-point home favorite, I am looking at the total as my more confident play.

Fade the trends

Unders in games involving two service academies have cashed at a near 80% clip (51-13-3) since 2003. The Under has especially been profitable of late in this Army-Air Force rivalry, cashing in 11 straight meetings. In fact, no Army-Air Force game has eclipsed 35 points since 2016.

Despite these trends, I am backing the contrarian play on the Over on a lower total, as the O/U has ticked down from 49.5 to 48.5 at BetMGM with 56% of the wagers siding with the Under.

Air Force is one of the most profitable teams to the Over this year, cashing in six of its seven games. The only time the Under cashed in a Falcons game was when they played Wyoming, who ranks 104th in Offensive SP+. 

While Army is not much better at 90th, a similarly constructed Navy offense torched the Falcons for 34 points despite totaling just 18 first downs, as countless explosive plays led to the Midshipmen’s 517 total yards output.

Several of the best sports betting sites have seen the total rebound to 49.5 later in the week. But BetMGM remains the lone sportsbook at 48.5, which makes its -115 juice at 53.49% implied odds worth paying up for. Through BetMGM’s -115 odds, a winning $10 wager would net $8.70 in profits.

✅ Score prediction: Air Force 27, Army 24

🆚 Key matchup to watch

Liam Szarka vs. Army defense

All three service academies rely heavily on their quarterback’s legs in the red zone, as Navy’s Blake Horvath, Army’s Cale Hellums, and Air Force’s Liam Szarka all have at least nine rushing scores.

Szarka has scored a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games and became the first quarterback in Air Force history to eclipse the 100-yard mark in five straight. He is also the first Falcon with five straight 100-yard games at any position since fullback Brad Roberts did it in 2022.

Backing Szarka to score Air Force’s first team touchdown at +140 odds after using a DraftKings promo code is a great way to mitigate his steep -320 anytime touchdown odds, which carry a 76.19% implied probability. If Szarka is the first Falcon to score a touchdown, my $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ +140 odds would return $14 in profits.

✅ Best player prop bet: Liam Szarka first team touchdown scorer (+140 via DraftKings)

📈 Army vs. Air Force betting trends

🌤️ Army vs. Air Force weather

The weather will be perfect for this Army-Air Force tilt, with temperatures in the low 60s and a 0% chance of precipitation. Wind will also not be a factor, blowing at 2 mph with gusts up to 12 mph.

📺 How to watch Army vs. Air Force

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 1
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: Falcon Stadium (USAF Academy, Colo.)
• TV: CBS