Air Force vs. Navy Prediction, Picks & Odds: Take the Over in Service Academy Showdown

In the first game of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy series, our Air Force vs. Navy prediction breaks down both sides of the matchup as part of our college football predictions for Week 6, with the Midshipmen entering as a 12-point betting favorite and an Over/Under of 51.5. 

Last year, Navy won 34-7 on its way to capturing its first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy under Brian Newberry, and the Midshipmen are expected to have the edge again this year when the teams take the field on Saturday at noon ET (CBS, Paramount+) from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md.

My college football picks for this triple-option academy showdown highlight my game pick, Over/Under pick, and favorite player prop.

📊 Air Force vs. Navy odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

✈️ Why Air Force can cover

Troy Calhoun's Air Force program has never gotten the same respect as Army and Navy, and after the best five year run in program history (43-15 from 2019 to 2023), the Falcons have dropped off the last two years. They enter this matchup with Navy holding just a 6-10 record since the start of last season, hence being a double-digit underdog.

So how can they cover? Well, Calhoun is one of the best academy coaches in recent memory, and while his defense has been a major issue this year, his program's offense has impressed. With Calhoun running a more pass-heavy variation of the triple, it's the Falcons' aerial assault that could be the difference against the Midshipmen.

Air Force is No. 2 in the country in EPA per pass and has one of the country's most dynamic playmakers in "wide receiver" Cade Harris. Harris lines up all over - 108 snaps in the backfield, 44 out wide, 33 inline, and 17 in the slot - and has totalled 615 yards on 41 touches this season. The senior even leads the country in yards per route run (6.97).

The other major difference maker for the Falcons is sophomore QB Liam Szarka, who has come out of nowhere to impress after not seeing the field last year. He's No. 8 in the country in QBR (87.2) and leads the nation in big-time throw rate (14.6%). 

Szarka and Harris have Air Force ranked top 60 in SP+, and for the Falcons to cover, they'll need to turn this into a shootout against a Navy defense that's just No. 78 in EPA per pass. I recognize the idea of an academy shootout might seem crazy, but Air Force's passing attack is as explosive as an F-15EX Eagle II.

⚓️ Why Navy can cover

The firing of Ken Niumatalolo seemed ludicrous at the time, but Newberry has steered the ship to get Navy back on course after the program finished under .500 in four of Niumatalolo's final five seasons. Since the beginning of last year, Navy is 14-3, and upset Army to win the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy in the final week of the season. But Newberry hasn't been the most important piece to the Midshipmen turning the tide in Annapolis.

Navy's got one of them again ... a triple-option quarterback capable of making a little bit of Heisman noise the same way Ricky Dobbs, Keenan Reynolds, and Malcom Perry once did years ago. Blake Horvath is the biggest reason Navy is a Group of Five College Football Playoff contender. The senior QB has racked up 22 rushing TDs since the start of last year, and sits No. 3 in rushing yards after contact among quarterbacks this year (237).

His physicality in the run game, and ability to break a big run when needed (five runs of 15-plus yards in four games), makes this whole offense go. And it doesn't hurt that he's an effective passer too, ranking top 50 in QBR (69.0) and top five in average yards per attempt (13.2).

Horvath also has plenty of weapons to expose an Air Force defense that's ranked outside the top 120 in both EPA per pass and rush. Fullback Alex Tecza is top 25 in the country in rushing yards after contact (278), and slotback Eli Heidenreich is a slippery player in space with over 800 career rushing yards and 1,200 career receiving yards.

Navy's defense also has enough to slow Air Force's ground game - the Midshipmen are No. 19 in EPA per rush - and if they can limit the Falcons to fewer than 24 points, then they're in good shape to cover the spread.

🏈 Air Force vs. Navy prediction & best bet

Hear me out, the Over is the play for this matchup. I know, I know, it's Air Force vs. Navy, it's the triple-option, it's three yards and a cloud of dust. But that's simply not the case anymore, and both of these teams have evolved, and both have talented pass catchers and QBs willing to push the ball downfield.

The perception of these teams is why our best college football betting sites have the Over/Under set at just 51.5, but the projections from SP+ (61) and CFB Graphs (64) have this game total blowing by that number. These are two of the highest-ranked G5 offenses by SP+, and both are top 20 in EPA per rush and pass. This isn't the academy football your slightly older cousin grew up on.

Navy is 3-1 betting the Over this season, and Air Force is 4-0, having gone Over 52 points in all four of its games. If the two programs keep up their high-scoring streak and the Over cashes, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit at Caesars.

✅ Score prediction: Navy 38, Air Force 20

💰 Air Force vs. Navy picks

College football expert picks for Week 6; odds subject to change.

📺 How to watch Air Force vs. Navy: Week 6

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Md.)
• TV: CBS, Paramount+