College Football Against the Spread Picks for Week 10: Which Fishy Line are We backing?

While the 25th regular-season No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup when the Georgia Bulldogs host the Tennessee Volunteers will enthrall the country, we turn our attention to some less-heralded games. Read on for our best against-the-spread bets for the college football action in Week 10.

There's bound to be a ton of movement in the Heisman futures odds after Week 10. Tennessee's Hendon Hooker is now the consensus favorite to take home the hardware at all major sportsbooks. He'll either solidify his case when facing Georgia's vaunted defense, or bring several others into the mix if the Bulldogs neutralize him. 

Below, we offer our top ATS bets for Week 10 in college football (odds via BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Against the Spread Bets for Week 10

Texas -1 (-110) ★★★★

Let me get this straight. Texas enters Week 10 on a five-game road losing streak, the school's second-longest road losing slump in 80 years. The Longhorns have lost five games over the last two seasons after building a double-digit lead (the most in the FBS). Now they face a ranked Kansas State team that just trounced a ninth-ranked Oklahoma State squad 48-0 with a backup quarterback who tied a school record with four passing touchdowns.

Yet not only is Texas favored, but the early line has been moving in its favor, as the Longhorns are up to as high as -3 at some sportsbooks. Sign me up for whatever Vegas knows, because this is the definition of a fishy line.

Perhaps this is the week Texas rides Bijan Robinson to a victory. He's rushed for over 100 yards in six consecutive games yards at 4.8 yards per carry (10 total touchdowns during that span). 

Texas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games at Kansas State. But we'll take the contrarian approach and expect a rare Longhorns road win and cover.

Michigan State +16.5 (-110) ★★★★

Michigan outrushed the Spartans 276-37 in Week 9, which isn't a good sign entering a game against Illinois. The Illini will likely give Mel Tucker's squad a healthy dose of Chase Brown, the nation's leading rusher (1,208 rushing yards).

However, the Spartans will probably be happy to welcome that challenge. Their pass defense is the unit's weak link while allowing 256.3 yards per game and ranking outside the top 110 in passing success rate. 

Michigan State entered Week 9 ranked 75th in rushing success rate and 95th in offensive line yards. There will likely be tough sledding against an Illini defense that's the best in the country while allowing 8.9 points per game. However, the Spartans gave up just four yards per carry before the trouncing against Michigan. With positive regression expected now, 16 points are too much to give a live underdog with points likely at a premium in this game.

Navy +21 (-110) ★★★★

This is a tough spot for Cincinnati, as the Bearcats no longer control their own destiny in the AAC after losing to UCF. The Knights gashed the Bearcats for 258 yards on the ground and five yards per carry. While Navy's methodical triple-option attack is the polar opposite of UCF's up-tempo style, both teams deploy a run-oriented offense that's hard to hold up against defensively.

Cincinnati hasn't looked right for quite some time. Before its loss to UCF, the school won games against South Florida and SMU by a combined six points. Navy easily covered as 28.5-point underdogs during last year's 27-20 loss to an eventual playoff-bound Bearcats squad. The team will be brimming with confidence entering this game against a Cincinnati group that's a shell of what it was in 2021.

Where to Bet on College Football ATS Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

College football top ATS bets from 10/31/2022 at 6:32 a.m. ET.