Wide Receiver Line Movement: Big Swings for CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson

The odds in NFL futures markets are always changing, and they provide perspective into how bookmakers adjust their expectations for the upcoming season based on news and betting action. 

Here’s a peek at notable line movement in the 2022 Most Receiving Yards markets from FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbooks from their odds close to opening on May 13 to their current numbers available.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

FanDuel Wide Receiver Line Movement

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

An expected beneficiary of quarterback Russell Wilson joining the Broncos, Sutton is a ripe bounce-back candidate after recording just 58 receptions, 776 receiving yards and two touchdowns across 17 games last year.

Sutton’s best season came in 2019 when he registered 1,112 receiving yards and earned his first Pro Bowl honors. He’ll have to cruise well past that career-high mark to take a chance at leading the NFL in receiving yards this season, and FanDuel’s current odds for him to do so are significantly more in line with the probability everything goes right for Sutton than with the opening number.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Line Movement

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

As good as Hill was during his six-year tenure with the Kansas City Chiefs, he only finished inside the top five in receiving yards once – his career-best 2018 showing.

Now, the 28-year-old speedster will be catching passes from unproven quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which projects to be an overall downgrade from his cushy gig hauling in targets from Kansas City superstar signal caller Patrick Mahomes.

Hill is now properly positioned in the secondary tier to lead the league in receiving yards, instead of being listed among the betting favorites.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

The huge jump in Metcalf’s odds is likely the result of Seattle sticking with the underwhelming quarterback combo of Geno Smith and Drew Lock.

With the Seahawks rumored to be considering an upgrade at the position throughout the offseason, it made sense for bookmakers to avoid the potential for huge liability by hanging too long of a number for Metcalf.

As it stands, a lot would need to go right for Metcalf to enter the conversation of leading the league in receiving yards, especially after totaling just 967 while catching passes from nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson in 14 of 17 games last year.  

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Reportedly at full health after playing just seven games over the past two years and missing the entire 2021 campaign, this will be Thomas’s first season in New Orleans without the organization's long-time head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees.

Thomas paced the NFL in receiving yards in his last full season in 2019, but obviously a lot has changed since then, and the Saints have a deep collection of pass-catchers to challenge him for targets in 2022.

Rookie wideout Chris Olave is being billed as a potential Week 1 starter, and veteran possession receiver Jarvis Landry is also a proven asset. It also looks less and less likely that running back Alvin Kamara will miss time due to a suspension this year, and he’ll also be busy in the passing attack.

It’s CeeDee Lamb Time in Big D

The Dallas Cowboys wide receiver room has thinned out since last season, and Lamb is the clear top target in what has the potential to be a high-scoring offense. 

As a result, bookmakers cutting his odds in this market definitely aligns with his potential to pull off the feat. 

Still, the third-year receiver might have an uphill climb to leading the NFL in receiving yards as a primary focus for opposing defenses, which could include plenty of double-team matchups. 

Does Quarterback Uncertainty Loom Over Diontae Johnson?

Both DraftKings and FanDuel have boosted Johnson’s odds in their respective markets following a breakout 2021 showing, and there’s a probable explanation. 

Johnson likely hasn’t been a popular bet to lead the league in receiving yards because of the uncertainty at quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, so increasing his odds could attract more action.

However, after Ben Roestlisberger finished 29th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in yards per passing attempt last year, how much worse could the quarterback situation be for Johnson? 

The fourth-year wideout ranked 102nd in yards per target in 2021, after all.

Expect Drop Off Following Deebo Samuel’s Career Year

It was a monster 2021 season for Samuel, as he moonlighted at running back to the tune of 365 rushing yards and eight touchdowns while also racking up 1,405 receiving yards and leading the NFL in yards per reception (18.2).

If the fourth-year star turned the majority of his 59 carries from last season into more targets in 2022, Samuel could certainly take a shot at topping the NFL in receiving yards. However, it’s all but guaranteed he won’t be able to duplicate last year’s Y/R mark, and quarterback Trey Lance is unproven.

Samuel’s odds skyrocketing in this market suggests bettors also aren’t bullish on him duplicating last season’s breakout numbers.

Make sure to keep an eye on our Live Odds page throughout the week to get the best lines possible and connect with others in the SBR community on our popular sports betting forum.