Survey Shows Majority View Prediction Markets as Gambling
A new survey conducted by YouGov for the American Gaming Association (AGA) found that most US voters consider sports event contracts to be a form of gambling rather than a financial product.
Of the 2,025 registered voters surveyed, 85% identified contracts, such as betting on the outcome of a New York Yankees game, as equivalent to sportsbook wagers, rather than options or futures contracts.
The report Sports Events Contracts: Public Opinion Landscape showed strong support for tighter regulation. Eighty percent of respondents want prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket regulated in the same way as online sportsbooks.
Public perception of regulatory loopholes was also highlighted, with 70% of respondents believing prediction markets operate as unlicensed sportsbooks. Meanwhile, 69% said states should have the right to decide whether such contracts can be offered locally.
On licensing, 84% of voters indicated companies offering these markets should obtain sportsbook licenses in each state, like the best sports betting sites, while just 16% opposed the requirement.
Oversight preferences also leaned toward state-level control, with 65% favoring state and tribal regulators over the CFTC. Additionally, 64% of respondents said regulators and operators share responsibility for providing responsible gambling tools.
"This research has made it clear: Americans know a sports bet when they see one—and they expect prediction markets offering sports event contracts to be held to the same rules and consumer safeguards as every other state-regulated sportsbook," said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. "This underscores the need for the CFTC to enforce and uphold its own regulations that prohibit gaming contracts, and for Congress to use its oversight power to ensure prediction markets are not used as a backdoor for gaming."
Polymarket advances with CFTC relief
While the AGA survey reflected concerns about prediction markets operating outside traditional gambling regulation, Polymarket moved closer to compliance in the US following regulatory relief from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The agency's Division of Market Oversight and the Division of Clearing and Risk recently issued a no-action letter regarding swap data reporting and record-keeping relief. The letter directed the response regarding specific event contracts, but didn't specify any details.
However, the decision followed a request from QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC, affiliates of the QCEX exchange and clearinghouse licensed by the CFTC. Polymarket acquired QCEX earlier this year for $112 million, giving it a regulatory foundation while addressing barriers previously limiting its US operations.
Under the no-action position, the CFTC said it would not seek enforcement against QCEX or its listed affiliates in the no-action letter for failing to meet specific swap-related obligations as long as activity remained within the letter's scope. The agency emphasized that the response was channeled to that activity and aligned with similar responses it had given to other designated markets and clearinghouses.
Interest in event-based trading continues to grow. Kalshi recently raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation and has requested CFTC approval to introduce event contracts that combine multiple options, similar to parlay wagers in sportsbook betting, reflecting expanding ambitions in the sector.
