Sports Events Contracts Cause Unprecedented Kalshi Growth Going into 2026

Prediction market operator Kalshi has reported record trading volumes going into 2026.

According to a report by analysts Foresight Ventures, Kalshi’s trading volume grew from $300 million in August to over $40 billion by the end of the year. In the week ending Dec. 21 alone, Kalshi processed over 27.6 million transactions totaling $2.3 billion. 

The growth has primarily been driven by sports-related contracts, particularly those in markets tied to the College Football and NFL playoffs. Football-based contracts accounted for around 90% of Kalshi’s December trading activity, underlining the extent to which prediction market apps are now competing directly with sportsbooks. 

Kalshi’s expanding presence in the sports world has led to an elevated profile and multiple deals with sports and news organizations. 

In October, the NHL became the first major US league to partner with prediction market platforms by signing with Kalshi. That relationship deepened in December with a marketing deal involving the Chicago Blackhawks.

Kalshi has also established several media partnerships, including agreements with CNN and CNBC, which are tied to Kalshi’s event-based contracts.

That rapid expansion has also come with mounting legal and regulatory pressure. Several states have argued that sports event contracts are essentially sports betting and should be subject to state gambling laws. 

Kalshi disagrees, arguing that its products are financial derivatives overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not sports bets. The company is currently fighting rulings against it in Nevada and Maryland, and other regulatory challenges are expected in 2026.

Lawmakers and regulators push back on media partnerships

Another aspect of Kalshi’s expansion has been the focus of lawmakers. Its deal with CNN led Arizona Congressman Abe Hamadeh to urge the CFTC to take a closer look at the partnership, warning that it could expose prediction markets to manipulation and interference. 

In a letter to the acting chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, he expressed concern that the agreement could potentially lead to foreign governments and domestic political groups exerting pressure on institutions and manipulating narratives to profit from the platform. 

Additionally, he stated that the partnership could pose a threat to market integrity, American national security, and democratic stability. 

Hamadeh’s concerns are part of a broader pushback, including from Arizona regulators, who have taken aggressive action against companies linked to prediction markets. The Arizona Department of Gaming recently revoked Underdogs' daily fantasy sports license over a partnership involving Crypto.com’s sports markets, underlining the growing willingness of state regulators to act against platforms they feel are operating outside regulations. 

This concern at the state level is partly driven by concern about the potential loss of tax revenue. Kalshi is exempt from all state gambling taxes, and with states increasingly looking to gambling as a source of much-needed funds, there is little mood for compromise in the state houses of sports betting states.