President Trump's Endorsement of JD Vance For the 2028 Election Plummets on Prediction Markets

Betting action on prediction markets reveals a rapid shift in public attitude about Vice President JD Vance being backed by President Trump leading up to the 2028 Presidential Election.

For the Trump endorsement of Vance for President of the US, gamblers assign a 14% probability to the event happening before 2027, down from around 45% late in December. This decrease was sharp in the days following the peak, suggesting a rapid shift in opinions.

The lower odds are when more people begin to wonder if Donald Trump Jr. may have a role in the upcoming Republican primary. A McLaughlin & Associates poll in the second half of 2025 found Vance still leading but losing traction.

Its August survey placed Vance at 36% support, compared with 16% for Trump Jr. By October, Vance had edged up to 38%, while Trump Jr. rose to 20%. A November poll then showed Vance slipping to 34% as Trump Jr. climbed to 24%, narrowing the gap further.

Despite that trend, broader polling continued to position Vance as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2028. That view was mirrored in prediction market apps.

Polymarket pricing indicated Vance had a 55% chance of securing the GOP nomination, significantly ahead of other potential contenders.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio ranked second at 13.4%.

Traders' activity accelerates in reaction to Venezuela 

As there was some uncertainty about who might be a candidate in the 2028 Republican presidential pool, wagers on what might happen internationally as a result of the recent US raid in Venezuela have rapidly grown. 

Investors expected that some form of military intervention might be used as a policy. One Kalshi market priced in the likelihood that the US would regain control of the Panama Canal before early 2029, rising above 35% from under 30% the week before. Trump had previously indicated he would not rule out military action to gain control of the strategic waterway.

Another market focused on Greenland showed similar momentum. The probability that the US would take control of any part of the Danish territory climbed to 38%, roughly eight percentage points higher than midweek levels and briefly exceeding 46% over the weekend.

A related market centered on the US purchasing at least part of Greenland traded near 25%, compared with under 20% earlier in the week. Combined wagering across those Greenland-related questions approached $2.5 million.

Separately, Kalshi traders assigned a roughly 54% probability that Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, would leave office before next year, within a market nearing $1 million in total wagers.