Prediction Markets See Bleak Political Future for Trump's MAGA Movement
Recent political prediction markets suggest a rise in pessimism about President Donald Trump's and the broader MAGA movement's immediate electoral prospects. Data from the U.S.-based prediction platform Kalshi and the U.K.-based Smarkets show that politically engaged users predict Democrats will win substantial electoral victories in upcoming contests.
Moving on from Conclave betting, which saw many prediction market users make their predictions on who they thought would be the next Pope, Kalshi users have moved back into political trading, showing increasing confidence that Democrats will triumph by a landslide in the 2026 and 2028 election cycles.
As of the last available information, 27% of Kalshi users are predicting a 2028 Democratic sweep of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Many of them signed up while using a Kalshi promo code.
This outcome would neutralize the path set by Trump's second term, if fulfilled, and considerably impede the MAGA movement to implement or continue its policies.
Still, another 23% of Kalshi users anticipate Democrats winning the House in 2028 but with the GOP holding the presidency and Senate. Another 22% anticipate that Democrats will win the presidency and the House.
Conversely, less than 15% of users are backing a GOP sweep of all three federal branches in 2028. These figures indicate a diminishing trust in an all-Republican government.
There is hope for Democratic chances, too, in the 2026 midterms. Kalshi data show that many voters favor the Democratic return to the House of Representatives. This is significant since the House has constitutional authority to initiate impeachment proceedings—a power it used twice in Trump's initial term.
Kalshi data is also unique. In January of 2025, Donald Trump Jr. was appointed as a strategic advisor to the site. His connection to the company doesn't appear to have changed prediction patterns toward Republican dominance.
Similar trends appear in other markets
On the other side of the ocean, similar developments are taking place on the U.K.-based prediction site Smarkets. In all, 51.55% of those polled now believe the Democratic Party will take the presidency in 2028.
This figure has steadily increased over the past two months, indicating growing hopes for a Democratic victory amid impending political uncertainties. Smarkets bettors also favor a Democratic win in the House. According to available data, 86.96% of the platform's users predict that Democrats will return to take control of the lower house in 2026.
The prediction platform’s markets for presidential odds provide additional information on perceived political momentum. Vice President JD Vance, who is also a likely heir apparent to Trump, already receives 22.22% support from punters to become the president in 2028.
Yet, only 5.88% believe that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be the next U.S. president, showing little belief in her chances at the polls despite her national profile.
