Parcl and Polymarket Launch Housing Prediction Markets

Housing data and real estate platform Parcl has partnered with prediction market operator Polymarket to create specialized markets that settle against Parcl’s daily housing price indices, providing traders and market analysts with a data-driven reference point for forecasting residential property trends. 

Polymarket will manage the listing and operation of these markets, while Parcl provides independent index data and settlement reference values intended for transparent verification. The companies stated that while housing remains the largest asset class globally, it is often difficult to express a clear view on price direction without managing property-level complexity, high leverage, or extended timelines. 

By merging daily indices with an event-market structure, the partnership also offers a more accessible method for trading housing outcomes with public and auditable resolution data. 

"Prediction markets are gaining substantial momentum and represent a paradigm shift in how views are expressed, and truth is identified,” said Trevor Bacon, CEO of Parcl. “Parcl is the source of truth for real-estate pricing, and we believe real estate should be a major category within the prediction-market ecosystem. Polymarket is a pioneer in the space, and we’re excited to partner with them.”

Initial markets will focus on major US housing locations. Market templates include questions regarding index movement over defined periods, such as whether a city home price index increases or decreases over a month or year. 

To improve transparency, each market will also reference a resolution page showing settlement values and methodology.

Federal legislation proposed amid insider trading concerns

As these specialized real estate markets move toward launch, federal oversight of prediction market apps has entered the legislative spotlight. New York Rep. Ritchie Torres has announced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which aims to target potential insider trading on these platforms. 

The proposed bill would prohibit all federal elected officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees from trading contracts tied to government policy or the outcomes of political events if the information is not publicly available. 

A spokesman for Torres said the bill has been in development for a while but noted that recent international events underscored the urgency of bringing the bill forward sooner rather than later. 

The announcement followed reports that US forces took Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro into custody after military strikes on Caracas. An account created on Polymarket in late December became the focus of speculation after making predictions related to intervention in Venezuela.

The account invested approximately $32,500, betting that Maduro would be out by January 31, purchasing shares at seven cents when the implied probability was low. After the capture was confirmed, those shares resolved at $1 each, resulting in a profit of more than $400,000. 

Regarding the proposed legislation, Polymarket rival Kalshi noted that trading on material non-public information is already prohibited under its rules.