Kalshi Captures Market Lead Over Polymarket Amid Record Trading Surge

Last month, Kalshi captured 60% of the market share compared to competitor Polymarket. This was a dramatic reversal of fortunes compared to earlier in the year, when Polymarket dominated aggregate trading volumes. The two prediction market operators lead the market.

The two exchanges also registered $1.44 billion in trading volume in September, the highest monthly aggregate ever. Additionally, key investors have been eyeing both prediction platforms: Intercontinental Exchange invested $2 billion in Polymarket, and Kalshi raised $300 million from investment firms in a Series D funding round. 

Clear distinctions can be made, however, on how both platforms operate in the market. 

Kalshi trades off-chain with its market data available solely via regular APIs. This architecture makes it difficult to verify the reported numbers externally, leading some analysts to doubt the veracity of the internal measures Kalshi presents.

Whereas Polymarket is all on-chain, with all trades and liquidity positions public on the blockchain, such that all market participants can see full details.

Kalshi's aggressive growth has directly coincided with its recent acquisition by Robinhood. The acquisition enables Robinhood users to enjoy the ease of having markets directly in the app, thereby bringing together retail investing and event trading in a single interface.

This alliance has provided Kalshi with exposure to Robinhood's immense customer base, helping it account for its meteoric rise in trading shares. The merger further indicates how prediction markets continue to integrate into the broader financial ecosystem, narrowing the gap between speculative investment and conventional retail brokerage platforms.

Kalshi eyes global expansion

Following its surge in market share, Kalshi announced last week that it had expanded internationally to more than 140 countries, marking its first major move beyond the US market. The company did not specify which regions are now live, but noted that both India and China are part of its broader growth strategy.

Both India and China account for more than a third of the world's population and are thus extremely profitable but legally treacherous markets for digital financial services. China's regime strongly regulates the internet, continues to bar US tech giants like Google and Facebook, and outlaws nearly all privately owned gambling ventures.

Penetrating that market would create major logistical and legal headaches for Kalshi.

India recently enacted the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill, prohibiting almost all iGaming platforms. However, domestic accounts obtained by Sportico indicate that users cannot create accounts on Kalshi, suggesting the service remains restricted in the latter. 

The legislation has already prompted Flutter Entertainment to cease paid games on the Junglee platform, despite earlier forecasting $200 million in annual revenue from Indian operations. Domestic opponent Probo also stopped real-money trades amid increasing legal attention.

Kalshi's ability to maintain its business in highly regulated markets may significantly impact its global revenue outlook, especially following its latest funding round, which valued the firm at $5 billion.