Delayed US Launch Leaves Polymarket Behind Rivals

It has been revealed that Polymarket didn’t have a complete public release of its US prediction market application in 2025, despite hints in the previous month that it would be launched. Polymarket kept its platform invite-only, which means that most US users still can't join, even as the regular NFL season came to a close.

The prolonged delay carried potential business consequences as competition in the prediction market apps space intensified over the final months of the year. Rival platform Kalshi recorded record trading volume during Christmas week, while several sportsbook operators launched their own prediction-market-style products in December.

Against that backdrop, Polymarket's absence from the US market during the peak of the football calendar marked a significant missed opportunity. Polymarket is continuing to onboard users from the waitlist, but has not provided a timetable for a full public release or explained the reason for the delay.

Polymarket had taken concrete regulatory steps toward re-entry earlier in the year. In July, it acquired QCEX, a registered prediction market exchange and clearinghouse. Two months later, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formally allowed Polymarket to resume U.S. operations after a three-year ban tied to operating without proper registration.

The CFTC oversees most prediction markets under the Commodity Exchange Act, positioning them outside traditional state-regulated sports gambling frameworks.

Following that approval, Polymarket launched an aggressive advertising campaign promising legal football trading across all 50 states by the fall. However, by December, the Polymarket product was still described internally as a beta.

Political scrutiny intensifies

As Polymarket faces issues with its US launch, scrutiny extends beyond sports prediction markets. This is particularly fueled by the unusual market activity related to possible US military strikes in Venezuela, which attracted attention.

Contracts speculating on whether President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power generated significant volume, including one account that reportedly earned more than $400,000 within a single day, prompting concerns about insider information.

This kind of scenario prompted New York lawmaker Ritchie Torres to move for action by the federal government to restrict insider trading on prediction markets. Starting this year, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act has called for a ban against trading by members of the federal government and their staff for such contracts that involve information that isn’t generally known to the public.

This was not the first instance in which Venezuela-related markets raised alarms. In October, a newly created Polymarket account reportedly profited heavily by backing María Corina Machado to win the Nobel Peace Prize shortly before the announcement, prompting the Norwegian Nobel Institute to consider an investigation.

More broadly, Torres' proposal joined earlier efforts by state and federal lawmakers, including New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel and a bipartisan group of legislators, who had urged the CFTC to reassess the integrity and scope of prediction markets.