Tennis thread

**gregm** · 07-21-12, 02:13 PM

Bartoli -1.5 sets -128 risk 2.56

**gregm** · 07-21-12, 11:19 PM

YTD 271-252 +47.80

Roddick to win BB&T Atlanta +583 risk 1

Slaughtered today in tennis, maybe roddick winning tomorrow may help, but overall a very poor day to end a great week. I think Bartoli may still come back to win this, but I am an idiot to ever bet on her in straight sets from now on in her career. She is not even in the Olympics and looked horrible at Stanford as well. WTA and straight sets is a fools wager, even without her hip and serving problems.

Janowicz/ Bolelli/ Hercog +145 risk 2

Janowicz/ Bolelli/ Cardinals (mlb) +153 risk 2

Janowicz/Bolelli/Yankees (mlb) +166 risk 1

Haas/Monaco o22.5 -130 risk 1.3

Tipsarevic -2 -104 risk 1.04

**gregm** · 07-22-12, 11:06 AM

Yani/Roddick/Arizona (mlb) +165 risk 1

Yani/Smyczek (LA qualifying)/ Arizona(mlb)/ +161 risk 1

Roddick -1.5 sets -119 risk 2.38

**beefcake** · 07-22-12, 11:24 AM

Man fartoli has been brutal.I knew she is spaz on the court, but she even started to shadow box her own serve too..

Take a serious look at those 4 chumps in Austria with the Olympics hanging over their head..

**gregm** · 07-22-12, 11:49 AM

Sad thing beef is I actually thought about taking Bartoli in the final and still considering it but going to see how roddick does , the numbers arent there to justify this overwhelming support for cibu (30-2 in favor of Cibulkova on TI and pretty much the consensus pick on most boards ). Cibu wasnt impressive at Stanford and was horrible at Wimbledon, Bartoli has much better numbers on hard court than cibu but its just so hard to watch Bartoli serve, its like torture some times times watching her try to hold serve.

I am thinking about Bartoli, just going to see how the Roddick match goes, if he wins its probably going to be a great day and can afford a punt on bartoli. I am getting absolutely nothing from running Cibulkova hard court numbers to justify this overwhelming consensus on her to win. People say Cibu is in great form but outside of stanford, Bartoli has much better hard numbers this year (semis in Doha and Miami, quarters at Indian wells) and what exactly has Cibulkova ever done on hard courts? She has never won a title on hard courts and is right around 55% her whole career on hard. Tough call with Bartolis serve, shadow box her own serve

. I like that

**gregm** · 07-22-12, 10:48 PM

YTD 275-255 +54.52

LA Farmers Classic to win

Querrey +260 risk 2

Kitzbuhel to win

Kohlschreiber +250 risk 1

Mayer +300 risk 1

Baker /Lopez +118 risk 1

Lopez -3 -113 risk 2.26

Fischer -176 risk 3.52

Thiem/Klizan u20.5 -117 risk 1.17

Minella -1.5 sets -127 risk 1.27

Sock -125 risk 1.25

**jolmscheid** · 07-23-12, 10:10 PM

Good stuff greg...keep it up

**gregm** · 07-24-12, 10:33 AM

Thanks Jolm and its been going really well but yesterday was a perfect example of why I shouldnt be wagering this week before the olympics, these tourneys are crap. 0-6 -10.47 units on absolute crap. Oh well. See you guys during the olympics, I may place a wager here and there before the olympics but I learned my lesson yesterday. Cheers

YTD 275-261 +44.05

LA Farmers Classic to win

Querrey +260 risk 2

Kitzbuhel to win

Kohlschreiber +250 risk 1

Mayer +300 risk 1

**Dad** · 07-24-12, 10:39 AM

Everybody has a bad day, Greg. It's part of our game.

You will bounce back.

Solid work so far.

**gregm** · 07-24-12, 10:55 AM

Thanks Dad. Good luck to you my friend, I am really looking forward to the olympics. Studying water ballet lines as we speak

**Dad** · 07-24-12, 11:15 AM

**younghandicapper** · 07-24-12, 01:17 PM

Beef, what do you think about the other matchups? Any opinions?

Kamke vs. Blake
Russell vs. Levine
Klahn vs. Lorenzi
Ebden vs. Berrer
Guccione vs. Matosevic
Sela vs. Andreev
Berankis vs. Phau
Malisse vs. Meister
Johnson vs. Sijsling

**younghandicapper** · 07-24-12, 01:18 PM

Sorry, not beef. lol

Leaning Russell only. Blake or Kamke? Blake has a recent injury right?

**gregm** · 07-28-12, 12:26 AM

YTD 275-262 +43.05

LA Farmers Classic to win

Querrey +260 risk 2

Kitzbuhel to win

Kohlschreiber +250 risk 1

I wish I had more time to study these, alot of lines look pretty inviting but just going to stick with these parlays for the most part. Zvonareva is too much of a question mark, Cibulkova looks like one I would take but Pironkova has much better numbers on the surface. Too much to look at tomorrow.

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

Federer -1.5 sets -450 risk 4.5

Del Potro/Williams/ Kvitova/Simon/Seppi -108 risk 2.16

Del Potro/Williams/ Paszek/Simon/Seppi +123 risk 1

Del Potro/ Williams/ Wozniacki /Kvitova/Simon -135 risk 2.7

Del Potro/ Williams/ Wozniacki/Simon/Seppi -106 risk 1.06

Del Potro/ Williams/ Wozniacki /Kvitova/Isner -143 risk 1.43

Del Potro/ Williams/ Wozniacki /Isner/Muller -134 risk 1.34

Del Potro/ Williams/ Kvitova /Seppi/Muller -137 risk 1.37

Almagro -162 risk 1.62

Youzhny -2.5 -116 risk 1.16

Youzhny -170 risk 1.7

Tipsarevic -190 risk 1.9

Lu/Jaziri u22 -113 risk 1.13

Ivanovic -190 risk 1.9

I thought about the handicap with Mchale but her numbers on grass are pretty dismal. Ana has always done well here in England and her first Olympics. Mchale does pose alot of problems for Anas type of game though, maybe the total might be worth looking at but sticking with this straight wager

**gregm** · 07-28-12, 09:38 PM

YTD 284-268 +43.56

LA Farmers Classic to win

Querrey +260 risk 2

Olympics

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

It would have been a fantastic day if Fed would have won in straight sets, weird watching him tighten up there trying to close it out. Olympics is a strange time to wager, wish I had of kept more records from the 2 I have really wagered on, looking at numbers doesnt give you much here. Just going to stick with guys I have good numbers on and trust and mainly with these parlays, these spreads sem sort of risky after adding up some of the numbers tonight. Tough calls here, wish Monaco has some grass numbers, horrible first match for Murray, Lepchenko, Lisicki and Kirilenko have really weak opponents in their opening games( from countries sending players with almost no grass experience), Haase off a title in Austria but has horrible numbers on the surface, love Gasquet in that one.

A. Radwanska has been money for me, Goerges can always have a superb serving match or totally implode, Arad seems alot stronger mentally and should take this. I am really going to avoid spreads here on games at the Olympics but hopefully alot of these -1.5 set wagers hit, alot of strange results I would imagine but some of these service game numbers are pretty striking in differences and no one can really afford to drop a set in these matches. Fed was really in trouble today for awhile there, Murray has a tough test with Wawrinka, he better bring his A game and not come out with one of this slow starts in these best of 3 setters.

Ferrer/Raonic/Lepchenko/Lisicki/Kirilenko -159 risk 1.59

Ferrer/Azarenka/Sharapova/Lisicki/Kirilenko/Gasquet -149 risk 1.49

Ferrer/Azarenka/Sharapova/Lisicki/Kirilenko/Gasquet/Tsonga -113 risk 1.13

Ferrer/Azarenka/Sharapova/Lisicki/Kirilenko/Raonic/Tsonga/Lepchenko +103 risk 1

Ferrer -1.5 sets -345 risk 3.45

A Radwanska -1.5 sets -166 risk 1.66

Lisicki -1.5 sets -294 risk 2.94

Tsonga -1.5 sets -180 risk 1.8

**gregm** · 07-30-12, 12:20 AM

YTD 286-270 +46.30

Olympics

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

Still open from yesterday

Ferrer/Raonic/Lepchenko/Lisicki/Kirilenko -159 risk 1.59

Ferrer/Azarenka/Sharapova/Lisicki/Kirilenko/Gasquet -149 risk 1.49

Ferrer/Azarenka/Sharapova/Lisicki/Kirilenko/Gasquet/Tsonga -113 risk 1.13

Ferrer/Azarenka/Sharapova/Lisicki/Kirilenko/Raonic/Tsonga/Lepchenko +103 risk 1

Lisicki -1.5 sets -294 risk 2.94

I am not feeling really good about these open parlays, Lisicki and Lepchenko are struggling with players who either have no grass experience or any experience at this level of play. I may cut back after today, these olympic matches are not going anything like I thought they would but I am grinding out small profits each day, one match away from losing these parlays though. Womens matches are really hard to call here. These players are professionals and arent staying at the olympic village because of the commute to the tennis courts but I am really wondering about how many really care about the olympic grind. A medal is nice but its not tour money and this isnt the greatest conditions for professional players. I just dont have enough experience betting the olympics, looking forward to getting back to the tour. Sticking with the parlays and the occasional straight wagers.

Federer/Williams/Kerber/Almagro -164 risk 1.64

Federer/Williams/Kerber/Almagro/Roddick/Isner -110 risk 1.10

Federer/Williams/Kerber/Almagro/Roddick/Isner/Ivanovic +128 risk 1

Federer/Azarenka/Kirilenko/Roddick/Isner/Del Potro -133 risk 3.99

Gasquet -1.5 sets -171 risk 1.71 ( Haase numbers on grass

)

Errani +126 risk 1

Zheng +3 -101 risk 1.01

Ivanovic -1.5 sets -164 risk 1.64

Istomin -1.5 games -106 risk 3.18

Simon -1.5 +121 risk 2

**beefcake** · 07-30-12, 07:09 AM

Agree greg, hard to gauge motivation.Especially with the women.Have Pironkova as a huge dartboard future and things are falling into place nicely so far with Radwa going out.Now if only kvitova can have about 30 unforced errors today its a golden road to hedge city in the QF for a nice profit.

Lots of good matches to DC today.I kinda like Larcher de Brito to do well there.She is on the comeback trail to get to a good ranking

**gregm** · 07-30-12, 03:00 PM

I know what you mean beef, Lisicki cost me today by not winning in straight sets against a girl with almost no experience at this level but at least she pulled it out. If she had of won in straight sets and Errani had of won, I would have run the table today but days like this aren't going to happen alot in the olympics. I am still looking forward to the the tour resuming with alot of the big names but this is a great time to be a tennis fan. I have never wagered had much luck wagering tennis after the US Open, its great to have so much sports everyday during the summer. I have enjoyed these olympics alot more than the euro cup in soccer.

Going to wager a little on the DC tourney tonight, I could have gone to this toruney but havent even paid attention this year with all the olympics on tv.

YTD 298-272 +59.67

Olympics

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

DC

Vandeweghe/Stephens -131 risk 1.31

**gregm** · 07-31-12, 12:42 AM

YTD 299-272 +60.67

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

Williams to win gold +125 risk 3

Sharapova to win gold +476 risk 1

Azarenka to win gold +543 risk 1

Tuesday

Ferrer/Sharapova/Azarenka/Kerber/Gasquet -106 risk 1.06

Ferrer/Sharapova/Azarenka/Kerber/Gasquet/Cilic +154 risk 1

Ferrer/Sharapova/Azarenka/Kerber/Petrova/Cilic +102 risk 1

Ferrer/King(dc)/Sharapova/Tsonga/Kerber -109 risk 1.09

Ferrer/Kerber/Tsonga/Azarenka -131 risk 1.31 I wish you could buy the hook in tennis and get that -2.5 game spread down for the tsonga game lol, I see this one easily going to tiebreaks but going with the experience here.

Ferrer/King(dc)/Sharapova/Kerber/(R.Federer/S.Wawrinka)(doubles) -113 risk 1.13

Lisicki -104 risk 1.04 Probably

for picking lisicki but shvedovas numbers on grass are not that impressive. Everything riding on lisickis serve, would never put much on this one.

Tsonga/Raonic o24 -120 risk 1.2

Monaco -1.5 -102 risk 1.02 Monaco has dismal numbers on grass but Lopez is not exactly a master of the surface and Monaco in great form. Lopez is almost impossible to wager on with any confidence.

Kerber -1.5 sets -288 risk 2.88

**gregm** · 07-31-12, 01:19 AM

R.Federer/S.Wawrinka (doubles) -260 risk 2.6

**gregm** · 07-31-12, 01:53 AM

Adding some more on Fed/Wawrinka -260 risk 2.6

I dont really understand this line but I dont have much experience with gambling on doubles matches so we shall see. I love this play

**gregm** · 07-31-12, 06:34 PM

YTD 303-275 +60.59

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

Williams to win gold +125 risk 3

Sharapova to win gold +476 risk 1

Azarenka to win gold +543 risk 1

Still open

Ferrer/King(dc)/Sharapova/Tsonga/Kerber -109 risk 1.09

Ferrer/King(dc)/Sharapova/Kerber/(R.Federer/S.Wawrinka)(doubles) -113 risk 1.13

R.Federer/S.Wawrinka (doubles) -260 risk 2.6

Adding some more on Fed/Wawrinka -260 risk 2.6

Berankis -1.5 -105 risk 2.10

I was pretty impressed with what I saw in LA from this young kid Berankis, Querrey was just unstoppable in the final but Berankis is one to watch. You never know what you are going to get with Mahut and this kid Berankis is having a great run here the last few weeks and was impressive in Atlanta. Berankis beat him a couple days ago and Mahut has rather rather average numbers on the surface plus Mahuts sometimes questionable physical conditioning. The fact that Berankis really wasnt serving well and still beat Mahut and he got to his service game(Mahut faced 10 break points) ,its definitely worth a punt here on Berankis to beat Mahut here a few days after LA and keep this great run going.

**gregm** · 07-31-12, 06:40 PM

Funny that TI was on Berankis 19-5 last week in LA but is on Mahut 16-8 a week after Berankis beat Mahut in straight sets????

**gregm** · 07-31-12, 09:02 PM

Wednesday

Ferrer/Djokovic/Murray/Federer -201 risk 4.02

Ferrer/Djokovic/Murray/Federer/Azarenka -132 risk 2.64

Kerber -155 risk 1.55

Wozniacki -148 risk 1.48

May add some later tonight after I look over some stuff. Love this card tomorrow

**gregm** · 08-01-12, 12:44 AM

YTD 305-275 +63.59

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

Williams to win gold +125 risk 3

Sharapova to win gold +476 risk 1

Azarenka to win gold +543 risk 1

Wednesday

still open (Tuesday)Ferrer/King(dc)/Sharapova/Kerber/ (wednesday) (R.Federer/S.Wawrinka)(doubles) -113 risk 1.13

R.Federer/S.Wawrinka (doubles) -260 risk 2.6

Adding some more on Fed/Wawrinka -260 risk 2.6

Ferrer/Djokovic/Murray/Federer -201 risk 4.02

Ferrer/Djokovic/Murray/Federer/Azarenka -132 risk 2.64

Ferrer/Djokovic/Murray/Federer/Williams -154 risk 1.54

Isner/Tipsarevic o25 -110 risk 1.10

Ivanovic +4 +107 risk 1

Kerber -155 risk 1.55

Wozniacki -148 risk 1.48

**MagicDiceFlow** · 08-01-12, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by gregm

Funny that TI was on Berankis 19-5 last week in LA but is on Mahut 16-8 a week after Berankis beat Mahut in straight sets????

TI is one of the best places to auto fade when a majority of them are on a certain match. Not the smartest of bunch.

Best of luck tomorrow Gregm.

**gregm** · 08-01-12, 09:59 AM

Thanks Magic, good luck to you today as well my friend. I didnt understand how so many on there could like Mahut just a week after Berankis pretty much dominated him even without strong serve numbers and especially with the form Berankis has been in. There was no social media to look at to see if Berankis was fatigued from LA, people just guessed he would be tired?

Ferrer -1.5 sets -163 risk 1.63 Nishikori had been extremely disappointing this year since the Aussie and doesnt have great numbers on the surface. Lucky to get by Davy and Tomic. Ferrer just continues his phenomenal year, hopefully we dont see any slow starts in this match from David. I am so tempted to take a punt on Ferrer winning the gold, he could beat Murray but Fed or Djokovic probably not.

**beefcake** · 08-01-12, 10:10 AM

Yeah ferrer is as dominant as can be out of the big 4.One day he is going to win a major or Masters 1000

**gregm** · 08-01-12, 10:31 AM

I agree beef, the guy is 51-9 this year with 5 titles and has only lost to Fed, Nadal or Djokovic this year except for a loss to Bellucci where he was injured at Monte Carlo and that match to Murray at Wimbledon where he should have won if he could have closed it out. Phenomenal year.

**gregm** · 08-01-12, 04:43 PM

YTD 307-283 +47.69

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

Williams to win gold +125 risk 3

Sharapova to win gold +476 risk 1

Azarenka to win gold +543 risk 1

Ferrer blows 3 parlays and Fed/Wawrinka lose their doubles match and cost me a huge chunk of my earnings from the olympics. I knew a rough day was coming after a rin of great ones but very surprised to see it coming from Fed/Wawrinka losing or Ferrer losing. Oh well.

Haas/Dolgopolov/Federer -159 risk 1.59

**gregm** · 08-01-12, 11:13 PM

Djokovic/Federer/Williams/Kvitova +113 risk 3

Sharapova -185 risk 1.85

Federer -1.5 sets -155 risk 1.55

Azarenka -3 games -113 risk 1.13

Nishikori +1.5 sets +111 risk 1

Williams -1.5 sets -2.66 risk 2.66

Kvitova -1.5 sets -103 risk 1.03

Murray -1.5 sets -224 risk 2.24

**gregm** · 08-01-12, 11:31 PM

I dont know why I am so hesitant, if Serena plays like she did today and serves like she did today nobody has a chance here and Serena gets the one thing denied to her, a gold medal in singles. Incredible stats today and the last 2 months.

Some more on Serena to win gold -110 risk 4.40

Some more on Serena -1.5 sets -266 risk 2.66 Woz has very average grass numbers, Serena is 53-6 on grass since 2000 and has ben unstoppable on wimbledon courts in her career. She was just phenomenal today and has been absolutely dominant in the last 2 months, hasnt lost a set at the olympics and lost all of 3 sets in the last 2 months.

Fed/Williams/Murray/Djokovic -128 risk 1.28

Fed/Williams/Murray/Kvitova -120 risk 1.2

**gregm** · 08-02-12, 12:17 AM

Federer/Williams/Williams sisters (doubles)/ Murray -168 risk 3.36

**gregm** · 08-02-12, 09:53 AM

I should have put more on Serena and stayed away from players like Kvitova, Serena is just miles above anyone right now.

Federer/Sharapova/Anderson +115 risk 1

**gregm** · 08-02-12, 01:43 PM

315-287 +50.66

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

S.Williams to win gold +125 risk 3

S.Williams to win gold -110 risk 4.40

Sharapova to win gold +476 risk 1

Azarenka to win gold +543 risk 1

Thursday

Federer/Sharapova/Anderson +115 risk 1

Vandeweghe -1.5 +107 risk 2

Vandeweghe -113 risk 1.13