Tennis thread

[gregm]

Sad thing is Dad I just dont have the time to really look at alot of these matches. Trying to find player like Kvitova who could win this us open series or Woz who has dominated here at New Haven. Motivation is tough to figure out here at these smaller tourneys.

Still have one Querrey parlay open

Nalbandian -2 -116 risk 1.16

Kirilenko -2 -108 risk 1.08

Isner/A.Radwanska/Kvitova(wed.)/Wozniacki(wed.) -186 risk 3.72

[gregm]

342-308 +59.74 units

I should have taken that radwanska parlay with bookmaker, they now have a complete match retirement rule but their numbers are usually so bad. Still have nalbandian open, woz has won this tourney last 4 years and Kvitova looking to win this us opens series. Pretty poor surfaces stats for Granollers but taking a punt on gulbis is never fun.

Wozniacki/Kvitova/Cibulkova -113 risk 1.13

Wozniacki/Kvitova/Rays(mlb) -123 risk 2.46

Gulbis +116 risk 1

Goffin -2 +102

[Dad]

Good luck today, Greg.

[gregm]

Thanks dad, good luck to you my friend.

I like todays card but I need the Cardinals and Kirilenko. I am not buying the stuff on kvitova tanking, she can win this series but we shall see. She has played alot of matches recently.

344- 311 + 59.56 units

Darcis +4 -104 risk 1.04

Isner -1.5 sets -156 risk 1.56

Kirilenko/Wozniacki -113 risk 2.26

Errani -126 risk 1.26

Kirilenko/Cardinals (mlb) -154 risk 1.54

Kvitova/Cardinals (mlb) -104 risk 1.04

Jankovic/Cardinals (mlb) -116 risk 1.16

Wozniacki/Cardinals(mlb) -114 risk 1.14

Kvitova -212 risk 2.12

Vinci/Kirilenko -134

[gregm]

353-312 +69.52 units

Darcis kept me from running the table yesterday, I am not seeing alot I really like today though. Mainly going to start looking at US Open qualies and may add some later.

Wozniacki -142 risk 1.42

Cepelova -265 risk 2.65

Glatch -165 risk 1.65

Bubka/Rangers(mlb) -113 risk 2.26

Kvitova/Rays(mlb) +102 risk 2

[EaglesPhan36]

Good to see you again greg.

[gregm]

Good to see you eagles, looking forward to the us open and your write ups. I wish you would keep up with that blog, you are one of the better writers on tennis out there. Cheers

[h23jdmlude]

Gregm - Woz knee injury doesn't concern you enough to stay away? I'm leaning on 1x on Woz .. Just not sure about her knee.

[gregm]

I hate not having streams for yesterdays match but we have one now for todays match http://lsh.lshunter.tv/tennis-live-streaming-video.html. I dont know if woz was really hurt but if she was she sure didnt show it in the second set. Woz has dominated h2h with Kirilenko, she has far superior numbers on the surface and has absolutely dominated new haven winning the title the last 4 years. If she is 100% she should take this. I hope you got a wager with a shop like one of the cris books that have the full match completed retirement rule

woz quote on injury yesterday

"You need to judge whether you can continue or you cannot," she said. "You need to judge whether it's going to get worse or it's not. That's all decisions you need to make yourself, decisions that are important because you don't want to jeopardize long-term injury. Doesn't matter what tournament it is."

Isner +123 risk 2

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Woz retired? What happened?

[Dad]

Nice call on Isner, Greg!

[gregm]

Thanks Dad. Had a rough day with these qualifiers so far, hopefully kvitova can help salvage a rather poor day here.

Kvitova/Rangers -126 risk 1.26

Kvitova/Yankees -127 risk 1.27

[gregm]

356-317 +64.0 units

Isner +128 risk 1

Isner +1.5 sets -215 risk 2.15

Kvitova/Rangers -106 risk 1.06

Kvitova/Dodgers +114 risk 1

Kvitova/ White Sox +113 risk 1

I watched Kvitova yesterday and she was just absolutely dominant, of course Erranis size doesnt help her with a player like Kvitova. I never have much confidence wagering on Kvitova, she can be one of the most dominant players in tennis since Serena when she is on her game and serving great and hitting with power but she is also capable of spraying shots all over the court as well and completely collapse. She has had a pretty disappointing year but is playing her best tennis of the year this month, I am just worried that she may run out of gas at some point, she has played a ton of matches in August.

Kirilenko looked great in that first set against Wozniacki and has had a good month as well but she has an abysmal record against top 10 players, surface stats are pretty even between the two. I dont put much into the grass match at the Olympics but the over 2 sets may be worth looking at here, 5 of Kvitovas matches this month she won were all 3 setters and she can be wild at times. Kvitova is certainly capable of dropping a set to Kirilenko and this one should be alot tighter than the Errani match.

[gregm]

361-317 +69.55 units

Brutal looking over this stuff tonight. So much junk to digest and looking at so many players on excel and on the card tomorrow that I wouldnt touch normally with a ten foot pole. Right now I will probably looking over some parlays, a straight wager on pavly and goerges, totals seem like you are really reaching with alot of these players on tomorrows card.

Players that stand out for that lottery ticket/ parlay card- Nishikori, Chardy, Cilic, Verdasco , F. Mayer, Clijsters, Azarenka, Kvitova, Sharapova (I will add Fish to parlays but Soeda really burned me in Atlanta beating Nishi and Malisse, took a set off Del Potro at wimbledon and has some impressive scalps. Fish should win this though.

Goerges -1.5 sets -120 risk 2.4

Goerges is not a hard court player but made it to the finals at Dubai and round of 16 at Indian wells and the Aussie this year but has looked like crap since. This kid Pliskova certainly has the numbers to justify a punt on her maybe taking a set but she hasnt beaten anyone of note to justify taking a set off a top tier player like Goerges.

Pavlyuchenkova -215 risk 2.15

Lepchenko -1.5 sets -184 risk 1.84

Wickmayer -1.5 sets -115 risk 1.15

Nishikori -2.5 sets -205 risk 2.05

[gregm]

Adding some more on Wickmayer -1.5 sets -115 risk 1.15

Wickmayer has been pretty poor recently but has done very well at the US Open, making it to the semis in 2009 and round of 16 in 2010, retired last year with an injury. Glusko doesnt have any numbers or wins to justify taking a punt on her winning a set here.

[nosaij]

hi greg.

just wondering about the parlay, got a def play for it?

thanks

[gregm]

Nos, These are two I am playing, better than a lottery ticket. LOL.

Verdasco/Fish/Cilic/Nishikori/Azarenka/Clijsters/Sharapova -179 risk 1.79

Cilic/Nishikori/Azarenka/Clijsters/Sharapova/Chardy/F.Mayer -154 risk 1.54

[gregm]

Strycova has had a dismal year, her father was arrested earlier this year for drug trafficking according to this article and she has been pretty dismal ever since except for one decent showing in Palermo.

This is a translation but this article isnt the best. LOL. http://translate.google.com/translat...li-drogam.html

She is 5-10 on hard courts this year, 2-8 in her last 10. Flipkens on the other hand is 7-3 in her last 10 on the surface, she hasnt played on the surface much this year but is having a great year overall.

Nishi/Azarenka/Sharapova/Kvitova/Flipkens -142 risk 1.42

[nosaij]

cheers!

[Dad]

Good luck today, Greg.

[nosaij]

julia . G , struggling, kinda unexpected haha

[Dad]

Whats going on with the Pavlyuchenkova match?

[gregm]

Pavly won in straight sets Dad. Might be an interesting one to watch this tourney. Pretty weak draw and she may be facing a pretty exhausted Kvitova at some point.

YTD 367-320 +69.77 units

Pretty interesting to see the Cris books go with full match retirement rules, I got screwed with that Mayer parlay but Bookmaker/DSI tennis lines are just so bad even with parlays.

Parlay material- Wozniacki ( last two years she made the semis, made the finals in 2009, knee injury at new haven doesnt sound like anything. Great article about this "retirement"

http://articles.courant.com/2012-08-24/sports/hc-jacobs-column-0825-20120824_1_caroline-wozniacki-new-haven-open-anne-worcester

Roddick, Berdych, A.Radwanska, Monaco( neither player loves this surface but immense difference in form) , Raonic, Kirilenko, Cibulkova, S.Williams, Errani ( this one worries me as this is not her surface and Blanco actually has good numbers on hard : albeit facing much weaker competition) Ivanovic, Tsonga, Isner(wednesday), Janowicz, Kerber and Ferrer(wednesday).

Futures

Serena Williams to win US Open +100 risk 4

Azarenka to win US Open +775 risk 1

Djokovic to win US Open +150 risk 3

Fed to win US Open +265 risk 1

Ferrer(Wed.)/Wozniacki/Roddick/S.Williams/Berdych/Ivanovic -112 risk 1.12

Ferrer(Wed.)/Wozniacki/Roddick/S.Williams/Tsonga/A. Radwanska/Monaco -104 risk 1.04

Ferrer(Wed.)/Wozniacki/Roddick/S.Williams/Berdych/Tsonga/Kirilenko +138 risk 1

Janowicz/Isner(Wednesday)/Baghdatis/S.Williams -164 risk 1.64

Mchale -270 risk 2.70

Cibulkova -262 risk 2.61

Kirilenko/Ivanovic/Dolgopolov/Roddick -113 risk 1.13

Kerber/Tsonga/S.Williams/Kirilenko/Errani/Janowicz/Raonic -134 risk 1.34

Vesnina +4.5 +100 risk 1

[gregm]

I missed Querrey last night, he should dominate here.

Querrey/Wozniacki/Kerber/Ivanovic/Roddick -160 risk 1.6

[gregm]

Querrey/Kerber/Kerber/Tsonga/Kirilenko/Errani -159 risk 1.59

[Demonata]

Good Luck today man.

[Dad]

Nice call on Pavly yesterday, Greg. Thats the play I followed and cashed.

[gregm]

Thanks dad and demon. I have a feeling this is going to be a great day but there is nothing like a bet on Jelena to take the wind out of your sails.

Jankovic/Wozniacki/Kerber -185 risk 1.85

[gregm]

YTD 371-328 +61.46 units

Futures

Serena Williams to win US Open +100 risk 4

Azarenka to win US Open +775 risk 1

Djokovic to win US Open +150 risk 3

Fed to win US Open +265 risk 1

Woz was really hurt, poor call and ruined what could of been a good day. Janowicz was pretty surprising loss as well.

Isner, Tipsarevic, Gasquet, Ferrer,Kohli, Hewitt, Sijsling, Pavlyuchenkova, Azarenka, Kvitova, and Li.

Tipsarevic/Isner/Gasquet/Ferrer/Kvitova/Azarenka/ Pavlyuchenkova -152 risk 1.52

Tipsarevic/Isner/Gasquet/Ferrer/Kvitova/Azarenka/Li Pavlyuchenkova -118 risk 2.36

Tipsarevic/Isner/Gasquet/Ferrer/Kvitova/Azarenka/Kohli/ Pavlyuchenkova +114 risk 1

Tipsarevic/Isner/Gasquet/Ferrer/Kvitova/Azarenka/Hewitt/ Pavlyuchenkova+129 risk 1

Lepchenko -160 risk 1.6

Bartoli -260 risk 2.6

Dimitrov -2.97 risk 2.97

Harrison -205 risk 2.05

Youzhny -4.5 +104 risk 1

Nieminen -116 risk 1.16

Hajek +8 +128 risk 1

[gregm]

Safarova -167 risk 1.67

Pavlyuchenkova -1.5 sets -259 risk 2.59

[Dad]

Very chalky day.

But I am going to ride with you, Greg!

[gregm]

YTD 381-336+52.99

Futures

Serena Williams to win US Open +100 risk 4

Azarenka to win US Open +775 risk 1

Djokovic to win US Open +150 risk 3

Fed to win US Open +265 risk 1

Sorry Dad, I hope you didnt follow any of those parlays with pavly in them, miserable thing about correlating parlays is it takes just one player to ruin a great day. Really surprising finish for her, getting a little burned out with tennis and so much football going on. I am glad there is no football tomorrow.

I would bet a million dollars on Serena to win this but not at 1.459, still pretty good odds for someone who looks untouchable. Ivanovic was struggling at times in the second set with her ball toss and her serve, Serena is not Pironkova, Serena us going to crush her if she starts faltering on her serve and just pushing over those second serves.

Adding some more-Serena -218 to win US Open risk 2.18

Ferrer/Azarenka/Djokovic/Williams(wednesday) -118 risk 2.36

Ferrer/Djokovic/Sharapova/Williams(wednesday) -140 risk 1.4

Tipsarevic -192 risk 1.92

Azarenka -1.5 sets -168 risk 1.68

Roddick/Del Potro o40 -109 risk 2.18

[Dad]

It's all good Greg. I dont play any of the parlays.

Today I am following the Tipsarevic play.

Good luck, Greg.

[gregm]

Godd luck to you today Dad. I am glad I was able to get thos Errani wager in

Errani -127 risk 1.27

Williams/Federer/Murray/ Braves(mlb) +101 risk 1

[Dad]

Godd luck to you today Dad. I am glad I was able to get thos Errani wager in

Errani -127 risk 1.27

Williams/Federer/Murray/ Braves(mlb) +101 risk 1

In on Errani with you, Greg!