Tennis thread

[gregm]

316-289 +48.68

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Djokovic to win gold +185 risk 3

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

S.Williams to win gold +125 risk 3

S.Williams to win gold -110 risk 4.40

Sharapova to win gold +476 risk 1

Azarenka to win gold +543 risk 1

Friday

Federer/Williams/Dolgo(DC) +110 risk 1

Federer/Williams/Haas(DC) -109 risk 1.09

Federer/Williams/Sela (Vancouver) +121 risk 1

Federer/Williams/Sharapova -110 risk 1.1

Williams sisters (doubles)/Sharapova/Federer -119 risk 1.19

Bryan Brothers(doubles)/Williams sisters(Doubles)/Federer -124 risk 1.24

Sharapova/Kirilenko o20.5 -105 risk 1.05

I think Sharapova will win this put but looking at the h2h numbers and after watching Kirilenko play today and watching her take A.Radwanska to three sets at Wimbledon, I think Kirilenko can make a match of it and you never know which serve will show up for Maria. Maria has had a great year and has really been turning it on since clay season, really impressed with her serving today against Clijsters. Big factor for me was the huge difference in numbers on grass, Kirilenko has been really poor on grass in her career but on a great run since Wimbledon. Keep in mind the surface numbers when looking at the h2h between these two, that h2h can be deceiving.

[gregm]

Federer -1.5 sets -156 risk 1.56

Williams -1.5 sets -130 risk 1.3

Djokovic wins first set -160 risk 1.6

Sharapova -1.5 sets -146 risk 1.46

I know the Sharapova wager would have more more value on the over and the +4.5 games with Kirilenko but these surface numbers and stats are pretty convincing for Sharapova , just hope we see service games from Maria like we saw on Thursday.

[Dad]

Keep up the good work, Greg.

[gregm]

Thanks Dad. It looks like its going to be a good day and a great olympics if Serena can beat Sharapova for the gold. Serena is just miles above everyone else right now.

Querrey -2 -103 risk 1.03

Querrey -140 risk 1.4

[gregm]

Williams( final)/ Fish -125 risk 1.25

[gregm]

322-294 +48.78

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

S.Williams to win gold +125 risk 3

S.Williams to win gold -110 risk 4.40

Sharapova to win gold +476 risk 1

Parlays still open from friday

Williams sisters (doubles)/Sharapova(friday)/Federer(friday) -119 risk 1.19

Bryan Brothers(doubles)(friday)/Williams sisters(Doubles)/Federer (friday)-124 risk 1.24

Williams( final)/ Fish (friday) -125 risk 1.25

If Serena comes through its going to be a great Olympics but I should still finish up for London in tennis no matter what happens. Futures bets are almost a must in tennis even during the olympics, same faces usually show up in the end.

Saturday

Azarenka -1.5 sets -149 risk 1.49

A medal, any medal, is something to be proud of and it is only Azas second Olympics. I just wish Azarenka was playing for America but she should make Belarus proud today, she has been very impressive at the olympics but just met up with an unstoppable force in Serena today. Surface numbers are pretty striking between the two over their career, Kirilenko has dismal numbers on grass for her career but has been on a good run the last few months. Azarenka should be on the podium though.

Sunday

Federer-3 +104 risk 1

Federer -150 risk 1.5

[gregm]

Hell yeah Serena. My girl comes through.

Sela -230 risk 2.3

[gregm]

327-295+59.53

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

Still open for Saturday

Sela -230 risk 2.30

Dolgopolov +134 risk 1

Pinnacle has the best number compared to most offshore and Asian and Euro books, seeing +136 on Betfair. I really dont trust Dolgo at all but going with the number here and the better player. Not alot of confidence in this one.

Sunday

Federer-3 +104 risk 1

Federer -150 risk 1.5

[gregm]

328-296+58.57

Olympics futures

Federer to win gold +180 risk 2

Murray to win gold +775 risk 1

Sunday

Federer-3 +104 risk 1

Federer -150 risk 1.5

Del Potro +4 -113 risk 1.13

Wondering how Del Potro will recover afterloss to Fed and Djokovic has taken bronze before but I was not impressed with Djokovic at all against Murray. Something wrong mechanics wise with Nole maybe, serve was really poor, alot of ground strokes and footwork didnt seem right. Sort of a drag as I hoped Novak would take gold here and really head into US Open strong but he still has time. I wanted put a big wager on him for a futures but definitely cant do it after Wimbledon and the Olympics.

Argentinian should fight and I have been impressed with his showings in the olympics, Nole would have to serve a ton better to beat Del Potro by more than 4 in straight sets and I definitely think we see a tiebreak, was really impressed how Del Potro held serve against Fed, experience just won out in that marathon.

[gregm]

Seems like a toss up here, not much from surface stats. Haas in good form and has had quite a good year for a 34 year old tenns player, beating Fed in Halle for the title, taking out guys like Tsonga and Berdych but going with the better number here and the younger legs. Wagering on Dolgo is always a throw of the dice though.

Dolgopolov +138 risk 1

[beefcake]

Great call on Murray to win gold Greg!

[gregm]

Thanks beef. I have never felt more unsure how to wager on hard courts though with futures with Fed,Murray and Nole and Nadal hurting, what a disappointment Djokovic has been the last few months. I realize it is grass but his surface stats on grass are very impressive, something is wrong mechanics wise. Not good. People criticize WTA wagering alot with the service games but Serena has basically been money in the bank on futures wagers and I have really done well on WTA wagering. I just hope Serena will go after this Emirates us open big money and continue her dominance, Clijsters and Fed have racked up some big paydays with US Open series money and US Open showings in the past.

[gregm]

331-299 + 64.20

Rogers cup- Lacko/Chardy +106 risk 1

[gregm]

Lacko(toronto)/De Brito(montreal) +115 risk 1

[gregm]

331-301 +62.20

Bad start to this tourney.

Isner/Fish/Benneteau +112 risk 2

[gregm]

Cirstea/Isner/Fish -122 risk 2.44

[gregm]

Nice job cirstea. What a lousy start for me in these Canadian tourneys. Probably should just lay off and wager on the olympics and baseball but here goes nothing.

Monaco/Fish/Isner -194 risk 3.88

[Harun]

I think María José Martínez Sánchez is the most idiot tennis player ever

[gregm]

333-302 +64.0 units

Simon -1.5 +110 risk 2

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Give us a fukkin winner, Greg.

[gregm]

I really havent had much time to look these over diggity but Isner already beat Kohli this year and big servers do well here, Kohlis numbers on hard courts are pretty mediocre.I will take Isner on hard courts any day of the week.

333-303 +62.0 units

Isner -2 -103 risk 1.03

[gregm]

Li -156 risk 1.56

H2h is 4-0 for Li but is from a while back, Li has much better numbers on the surface and Errani has never seemed to care for this tourney. Has usually lost her first match here and is 1-4 in her lifetime here.

[gregm]

Djokovic/Kerber -226 risk 2.26

[gregm]

335-304 +61.74 units

Try this again.

Djokovic/Kvitova -172 risk 1.72

[gregm]

336-304 +62.74 units

Hanescu -145 risk 1.45

[gregm]

Djokovic -1.5 sets -197 risk 1.97

Kvitova -1.5 sets +121 risk 1 A straight sets wager on Kvitova is always a throw of the dice but she has really started to play better tennis. Its been a extremely disappointing year after her massive run last year but she looked incredible against Bartoli here in Montreal and is coming off good showings at the olympics and wimbledon. Wozniacki has been a train wreck since April, taking a punt on Kvitova here.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Greg, did you retire?

[gregm]

Hey diggity, no way , I am a gambling addict. I just get lazy with these tracker threads sometimes, I didnt think anyone read these and I forget about them. I like tracker threads on these forums because they have usually kept me alot more disciplined with updating my prices and units on my spreadsheets.

337-306 +61.29 units

I wagered on Li tonight and I like the wager alot more but going to take a punt on Kerber. Kerber and Ferrer seem to be about two of the most profitable players on the tour this year. Kvitova looked sharp winning Montreal but she is capable of coming apart at any time and start spraying shots all over the place. I have not been impressed with her all year, while Kerber has been one of the great stories of the year. Pretty average surface stats for Kvitova as well.

Kerber +132 risk 1

Kerber +1.5 sets -198 risk 1.98

[gregm]

339-306 + 63.61 units

Djokovic -175 risk 1.75

Benesova (Dallas) +4 -112 risk 1.12

Kerber/Li o22 -109 risk 1.09

[gregm]

341-307 +63.86 units


Probably a great week to lay off but I dont want to get out of the habit of watching tennis, probably wont be wagering much on Dallas with the West nile scare and mayor Rawlings declaring a state of emergency last week. Its not like its easy figuring motivation with alot these players for these small tourneys but throw in the most minor or major health scares and its impossible to figure out motivation with some of these shrinking violets. The sad thing is there is more streaming from the Dallas and Winston salem courts than from New Haven so I may end up wagering a few on dallas.

Kirilenko/Querrey/Wozniacki +103 risk 2

[gregm]

Wozniacki to win New Haven Open +600 risk 1

Kvitova to win New Haven Open +325 risk 1

Wozniacki/Manchester United -123 risk 2.46

Woz has dominated new haven, won it the last 4 years and its a pretty decent size prize for a smaller tourney.I am not seeing any streams so going to watch some soccer this afternoon.

[Dad]

I didnt think anyone read these and I forget about them.

I'm always checking in, Greg.

[Dad]

Greg, who do you think will win the Davis Cup?

[gregm]

Thanks Dad I appreciate it. I dont see how anyone could go against Spain, Nadal may even play for Spain next month in the Davis cup.

http://www.daviscup.com/en/news/articles/nadal-aiming-for-davis-cup-comeback.aspx

[Dad]

LOTS of tennis today.