Tennis thread

[gregm]

406-360 +51.75

What a start to the day, Davy just ran out of gas. Hopefully NFl and college football will be better. Very surprised to see Serbia fall, Djokovic seemed really psyched to win this, surprised to see ana drop her singles match. Nothing like Hanescu to turn the weekend around.lol

1015 Victor Hanescu -150 risk 1.5

[Djoking]

Oh no not this Romanian guy he is really shit in tennis. He must normal plays sometimes on clay and not in hard

[gregm]

You are definitely correct on hanescus numbers on hard djoking, but he should beat Cipolla if he cares or someone has some money on it. Cipolla is also a siphon on anyones bankroll, I saw the match Cipolla just played against Paire and he looked awful. Last years win for Victor was on clay but I dont have much confidence after serbia and davy both falling today. This is a crapfest between hanescu and cipolla but just getting ready for the Aussie.

Misaki Doi +150 risk 1

D.Cibulkova +4.5 -108 risk 1.08

Morita -140 risk 1.4

Lepchenko +111 risk 1

[gregm]

409-363 +52.75

Harrison +120 risk 1

Nieminen +136 risk 1

Cibulkova +185 risk 1

Cibu and Erranis numbers on the surface justify a punt at this numbers

Marcos Baghdatis +120 risk 1

This tourney probably shouldnt be wagered on but when I saw these tweets from Tipsarevic on tennistweets.com , wort a punt on this always. Some of the worst retirement stats in tennis from tipsarevic so play this at one ball shop like 5dimes. This tourney doesnt disqualify you from retiring once. This is probably one match better to avoid, tipsarevic complains sometimes in his tweets of jetlag or ailments and has played great and he is coming off a title at Chennai but Baggy looked sharp in Brisbane, worth a small punt at this number.

from tennistweets

• 
  blasting @martin…8:08am….jetlag !!!!!!- Janko Tipsarevic at 4:09:06 pm ET Jan 8th
• 
  
  
  
• 
  Will need a serious dose of caffeine to survive the second part of the day…- Janko Tipsarevic at 4:02:45 pm ET Jan 8th
  
  

[tevari]

On Nieminen as well. BOL

[gregm]

Thanks tevari, I hope we get it. He put up some incredible numbers against Phau and was only on the court for 42 minutes in that sydney heat and he won this tourney last year. Of course Simon won it in 2011 but a good number and Nieminen seems to really like to play here. Wasnt real impressed watching Simon in Brisbane

[tevari]

I think Simon is going to have a shit year. He's lost pace on his already weak groundies and his serve has looked atrocious in the latter parts of last season.

[gregm]

412-363 +57.00

I agree tevari ,Simon is a mess just from watching him end the year and brisbane.

Tennis tweets pays off and the retirement king retires in the second set.

Istomin +155 risk 1

Ferrer/Stephens/NC State ml (cbb)/Kansas ml (cbb) -121 risk 2.42

Benneteau -120 risk 1.2

Haas -142 risk 1.42

Na Li -120 risk 2.4

Li/Radwanska o21.5 -103 risk 1.03

Kerber -156 risk 1.56 Little worried about fatigue but this girl was one of my profitable players last year. Better surface numbers, h2h hard to judge after Kerbers incredible year last year. Cibu never really a reliable wager, willing to lay the juice with my girl here and hopefully Kerber continues her development from last year.

Nieminen +4 -110 risk 2.20

[Sumalia]

Would appreciate some small write up on Li Na-Radwanska. I have already bet Radwanska...Li Na often looks lost in the woods even against less than stellar competition.She was fortunate to go undefeated against the last few tomato cans she beat.Why should I bet Li Na except H2H against each other?

[gregm]

Na Li has been to the finals here in sydney past two years, won it in 2011. Definitely one of the best female players on the surface, did drop a set to Keys but the h2h is pretty dominant for Li and especially on hard courts. H2h 3-0 last year and these were not even close matches,one ass whooping was just a few months ago in Beijing. Both players coming off some strong showings. Radwanska winning Auckland, Na Li winning Shenzhen. H2h last year, surface stats and Li's success at Sydney mainly make this a punt for me. Na Li isnt getting any younger and I sometimes question her motivation to win certain tourneys, she can get to the finals in Montral, win Cincinnati last year and then totally choke and lose to Robson at the US Open?

I am playing the over too, should be a great match and like most womens tennis matches, will be interesting to see who can handle the service game better. Na Li should be able to open up on Rads second serve, she needs a better service game herself. Should be one of the more interesting matches to watch. Good luck

[Sumalia]

Thank you

[gregm]

414-369 +49.23

Great call sumalia. Li had way too many unforced errors but I thought she still had a chance, Rad just held her service game well. Really impressed with her and cibu yesterday. Should be a great match

Benneteau +145 risk 1

Flipkens +3.5 -102 risk 1.02

Ferrer/Kentucky ml(cbb)/George Mason ml (cbb)/St louis ml (cbb) -130 risk 1.3

Tomic -2.5 -110 risk 1.10

Cibulkova +4.5 -108 risk 1.08

Stephens -1.5 +109 risk 1

[Sumalia]

Yeah man,I just knew sooner or later someone was about to put an ass whooping on Li,whether it was Radwanska or any other top dog.I was watching Li's matches this year and even some from the end of the season where you could just tell she is a mess.If I was to lose on Radwanska I would have doubled on whoever was next to face Le .

I got hurt badly on Flipkens beating Nikulesku...Nikulesku is plain retarded.She had this one in the bag.She just decided not to pull the trigger expecting Flipkens to beat herself and when this didn't happen and we got 3rd set Nikulesku started crying and bawling(literally) thru the whole set while staying on the court to finish the match(6:0).Flipkens is another one who is gonna take a beating pretty soon and more than one.Her style is tailor made for decent power and somewhat accurate hitters who don't play stupid and scared.But Nikulesku is a huge mental case,no doubt.

GL to you!

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I think Simon is going to have a shit year. He's lost pace on his already weak groundies and his serve has looked atrocious in the latter parts of last season.

Apparently he has a neck problem he can't get rid of, keeps reappearing every month or so - obviously that hits the serve especially hard.

[sando]

414-369 +49.23

Great call sumalia. Li had way too many unforced errors but I thought she still had a chance, Rad just held her service game well. Really impressed with her and cibu yesterday. Should be a great match

Benneteau +145 risk 1

Flipkens +3.5 -102 risk 1.02

Ferrer/Kentucky ml(cbb)/George Mason ml (cbb)/St louis ml (cbb) -130 risk 1.3

Tomic -2.5 -110 risk 1.10

Cibulkova +4.5 -108 risk 1.08

Stephens -1.5 +109 risk 1

That's a solid looking card you have there, on a few of those myself, best of luck today.

[gregm]

Thanks sumalia and sando and good luck guys, interesting stuff about simon hh, very erratic player but he seems like he wants to play next week. Gasquet and Tsonga both pulled out of Sydney too. Going to fade another Frenchman tonight, I was real disappointed with my money honey Kerber letting me down last night after being one of the most profitable players for me on the tour last year but nobody had a year like Ferrer did last year and made me more money. Losing to a remarkable Davydenko in Doha doesnt faze me, Davy had one of those out of his mind matches.

Ferrer won this tourney two years in a row . Ferrer is attempting to become the first player since the Australian Roy Emerson to win the tournament four times. Ferrer had really good numbers on hard last year and Ferrer is the last player to tank and get to the Aussie even if he isnt two time defending champion. Monfils on the other hand.

Ferrer was barely on the court an hour in his last match, Mofils off a brutal 3 setter with Haas, I was hoping to wait until match time and see where this number ended up for a set bet. Have him in a parlay posted earlier.

Ferrer -1.5 sets -151 risk 1.51

[gregm]

Barthel/Flipkens o21 -115 risk 1.15

[gregm]

417-374 +45.98

Ferrer looking to become second guy to win this tourney 4 times overall, 3 years in a row. Kohli been quite average lately but looked pretty good this week, dropped a set to Falla, stats wise seems to be serving well, had 10 aces against Querrey, 69% first serve percentage. He wasnt as impressive against Falla but he did win this tourney in 2008 and he has impressive numbers here in Auckland. Ferrer and Kohli met here in 2011 and the match went 3 sets but one of the interesting things in tennis is to see how these guys arent fading in their 30's, Ferrer had more titles than anyone on tour last year(7) and the 30 year old seems to still be one of the fittest players on tour.

Ferrer with total dominance over Monfils, he was on the court for 50 minutes and like I said in the other post I dont put much into that loss to Davy at Doha. I watched that match and Davydenko was flawless, the 30 year old Ferrer should start this new year off like last year and hopefully has another incredible year and wins another 7 titles like last year.

Ferrer -1.5 sets -155 risk 1.55

Ferrer/ PSG ml (french ligue 1)/ Denver ml (nba) -172 risk 1.72

Tomic -1.5 -110 risk 1.10

[gregm]

Adrian Menendez-Maceiras -145 risk 1.45

Tsurenko /PSG ml (french ligue 1)/ Denver ml (nba) -160 risk 1.6

[gregm]

psg with a red card and scoreless at the half. nice afternoon.

vesnina +100 risk 1

Michelle Larcher De Brito -165 risk 1.65

Ferrer/Tsurenko/Denver ml (nba) -160 risk 1.6

Daria Gavrilova +160 risk 1

Karin Knapp +110 risk 1

Steve Johnson -160 risk 1.6

Arina Rodionova +150 risk 1

[gregm]

425-377 +49.76

Tomic -1.5 -110 risk 1.10 still open

Adding a little more on Tomic -1.5 -113 risk 1.13

[jamarshad741]

I was scared of chardy for some reason.....

[gregm]

427-377 +51.76

Chardy jamar, against Lopez? French tennis is a whole lot of nothing right now it seems, like American tennis, but at least we have Serena. I am trying to figure out Tsonga, he actually will have a few frenchmen in his draw,starts off with llodra, Tsonga looked great when I watched him against Isner at the Hopman cup. New coach, pretty good draw. Had a pretty poor 2102 Australian Open falling to Nishi. I always have big hopes for him but he always seems to disappoint. Great draw for a 7th seed,but he really finished the year poorly in 2012, and barely got by Anderson at the Hopman cup.

Lisicki +181 risk 1

[gregm]

Giraldo +115 risk 1

Bogomolov +120 risk 1

Agut +120 risk 1

Rufin +155 risk 1

Rufin/ Reister o38 -106 risk 1.06

Bemelmans -131 risk 1.31

Vandeweghe +103 risk 1

Koehler +102 risk 1

Pliskova -126 risk 1.26

Parmentier +140 risk 1

Savinykh -1.5 +100 risk 1

Cornet +109 risk 1

Bertens -2 -114 risk 1.14

Rus +235 risk 1

[Dmoneytx]

BOL gregm!!! Hope you do well this AO!

[sh0rt6r]

Good luck with your bets for Australian Open....

[gregm]

Thanks dmoney and shortr, good luck to you guys. This would have been a perfect day for some parlays with new england in football and some of these favorites at the Australian, pretty break even day for my dogs so far but just throwing something on the hewitt match. I am going with hewitt , I won some coin from that post I had in post 424 where I quoted Tipsarevic tweets on tennis tweets about being jet lagged and needing some caffeine to get through the second half of the day. He retired.

Nothing unusual judging from his miserable retirement stats but wondering how much of that was just getting away that exhibition tourney in Kooyong and getting to Melbourne.

From this badly translated serbian on Tipsarevic facebook page

" Sorry guys. Sorry Marcos.I was really looking forward in playing this wonderful event.But the Australian Open is more important then what I wish or do not wish to do.Thank you all for your support and see you in a couple of days in Melbourne Park"

I dont think he is injured or any health problems at all, should be a good match. Thought about the total but going to take a punt on Hewitt side.

Hewitt +125 risk 1

Hantuchova -190 risk 1.9

Troicki -4 +105 risk 1.05

[Dmoneytx]

I didn't see how you did on the big page of wagers. I hope you did well!!! I saw that the last three plays didn't go so well, ARG! I hope you get it back this evening sir! Best of luck, as always

[gregm]

433-387 +47.51

Thanks dmoney. Hewitt was surprising but 31 years old in tennis is 31 I guess. I did pretty well backing Federer and Ferrer last year, these guys are still some of the fittest guys on the tour, I would put Ferrer in a 5 setter against most 24 year olds. I shouldnt have added those plays last night, would have done ok.

I still have Lisicki +181 risk 1 open

Bedene -1.5 -108 risk 1.08

Chardy -6.5 -114 risk 1.14

Matosevic/Cilic o38 -108 risk 1.08

Zemlja +147 risk 1

Berankis -3 -109 risk 2.18

Dolgo -2 -106 risk 1.06

Tomic -8 -114 risk 1.14

Pella -2 -105 risk 1.05

Pliskova -1.5 -101 risk 1.01

Peng 2-0 -173 risk 1.73

Peng -5 -126 risk 2.52 Enormous gap in quality. One of my favorite matches here. Marino barely played last year and went back to the challenger circuit after her return, Peng hopefully shows up here to play and crushes.

[gregm]

Del Potro/Davydenko/Arvidsson/Kansas ml (cbb) -103 risk 1.03

Del Potro/Davydenko/Vesnina/Peng -152 risk 1.52

Del Potro/Davydenko/Kirilenko -155 risk 1.55

[gregm]

S. Arvidsson (-1.5 Sets) -123 risk 1.23

Wickmayer (-1.5 Sets) +118 risk 1

Wickmayer looked great at Auckland and should win this, h2h record doesnt look real good for the straight set wager but its worth a punt at this number.

[gregm]

441-395 +48.15

Kerber/Querrey/Makarova/Li -166 risk 1.66

Chan +5.5 +104 risk 1

Zheng +4 -115 risk 1.15

(Stosur -4 +104 risk 2)

Buying out of my Zheng wager. I didnt understand the line after watching stosur/ zheng match in sydney a week ago but after looking through more of zhengs recent stats, something is really wrong with her. She is losing in China to Robson and players like Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino. Her numbers are awful over last 50 matches and she really struggled against Zhang. Stosur wasnt tearing the tennis world up either to end the year, I just hope Stosur doesnt have sydney repeat here, this is a match probably to avoid. Stosur off ankle surgery http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-2...e-pain/4447148 and with Zheng putting up awful numbers.

Flipkens +3 -110 risk 1.10

Flipkens +145 risk 1

Querrey -6 -110 risk 1.10

Pliskova +3.5 -110 risk 1.1

[Dmoneytx]

I see you have alot of women on the board for tonight. It makes me cringe, but I wish you luck on all of them. BOL!

[gregm]

thanks dmoney. Good luck tonight

Keys -1.5 sets -107 risk 1.07

Youzhny -5 -111 risk 1.11

[gregm]

447- 398 + 49.39

Berankis -1.5 +104 risk 1

Monfils -5 -111 risk 1.11

Kirilenko -1.5 -110 risk 1.1

Kavcic -4 -105 risk 1.05