Tennis thread

**gregm** · 07-10-12, 02:34 PM

Well done Dodig and you take a tumble over the net. Great effort

Morita/Keothavang/Radwanska -122 risk 1.22

Hewitt -2.5 -110 risk 2.20

**gregm** · 07-10-12, 04:47 PM

Cirstea +1.5 sets -193 risk 1.93

**hougigo** · 07-10-12, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by gregm

Cirstea +1.5 sets -193 risk 1.93

I'm taking Cirstea because I think it's pretty good value and she beat King already.... still iffy though

**gregm** · 07-10-12, 09:59 PM

Good luck Hougigo. I am not real confident in Cirsteas hard court game from looking at her numbers but Cirstea has much better numbers overall and I have seen King play for years. She goes on these hot streaks and eventually regresses back to a player of her skill set. I have been watching this line move, but just taking this sets wager. I would be really surprised to see Vania take this in straight sets but we shall see.

Wednesday

Errani/Cilic/Berlocq (Thursday)/Robredo -114 risk -114

Erani/Cilic/Granollers -112 risk 2.24

Errani/Ferrer/Paire -190 risk 1.9

I did this Ferrer parlay on 5dimes

Ferrer (-1900 ml on 5dimes, -3300 (1.033) on pinny and most books)

Robredo is coming off one hell of a tear in challenger play winning 2 tourneys and 10 straight in Italy, he was probably worn out when he faced Delbonis in Germany

Robredo -4 -120 risk 1.2

Lopez -2 -111 risk 1.11

Kopp +107 risk 1

Lino -158 risk 1.58

Camerin -111 risk 1.11

Rosol -3 -114 risk 1.14

**gregm** · 07-11-12, 08:49 AM

YTD 202-192 +22.12

Ferrer to win Bastad -140 risk 4.2
Raonic to win Newport +261 risk 2
Isner to win Newport +376 risk 1
Nishikori to win Newport +562 risk 1

Adding these.

Cilic/Errani/Hewitt -117 risk 1.17

Querrey -4 -129 risk .129

**hougigo** · 07-11-12, 09:47 AM

I took Kopp, good shit man

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**gregm** · 07-11-12, 11:51 AM

Thanks Hougigo Kopp and Robredo came through but Querrey handicap and Lino are not looking too good. I think that second post was wrong thread. Robredo has been really sharp in challengers and looked good today.

Adding Van Der Merwe -1.5 sets +128 risk 1

**Demonata** · 07-11-12, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by gregm

Thanks Hougigo Kopp and Robredo came through but Querrey handicap and Lino are not looking too good. I think that second post was wrong thread. Robredo has been really sharp in challengers and looked good today.

Adding Van Der Merwe -1.5 sets +128 risk 1

Reason for picking Van Der Merwe? I want to pick him but trying to find a good reason?

**gregm** · 07-11-12, 12:01 PM

Sock is coming off an operation to repair a torn abdominal muscle and hasnt played since March. I have been really impressed with him when I saw him play but thats a long time off and he has only played one match on grass in his whole life and that was his first match back here from injury in Newport. Merwe has pretty good numbers on grass and I thought he looked really impressive beating Muller. He already beat Sock once this year back in february, I would probably play Sock and the handicap if he hadnt had such a long layoff and had any experience on the surface.

**Demonata** · 07-11-12, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by gregm

Sock is coming off an operation to repair a torn abdominal muscle and hasnt played since March. I have been really impressed with him when I saw him play but thats a long time off and he has only played one match on grass in his whole life and that was his first match back here from injury in Newport. Merwe has pretty good numbers on grass and I thought he looked really impressive beating Muller. He already beat Sock once this year back in february, I would probably play Sock and the handicap if he hadnt had such a long layoff and had any experience on the surface.

Thanks greg i appreciate it.

**gregm** · 07-11-12, 03:06 PM

I am a sucker for punishment going with Jelena here but she does have a new coach and I have atrocious numbers wagering on Vandeweghe, especially on hard court. Jelena has to win sometimes right but she did just lose the finals to Oudin in Birmingham and lost to Jamie Hampton earlier this year at Indian wells. I just think this is one average american talent tonight who wont have enough to beat her but here goes nothing.

I saw that Hewitt match and thought he looked impressive and passionate about his play. A weak field and he has a decent shot of winning this tourney

Jankovic/Hewitt -103 risk 2.06

**gregm** · 07-11-12, 10:59 PM

Ferrer to win Bastad -140 risk 4.2
Raonic to win Newport +261 risk 2
Isner to win Newport +376 risk 1
Nishikori to win Newport +562 risk 1

Adding a few futures

Monaco to win Stuttgart +275 risk 1
Haas to win Stuttgart +400 risk 1
Robredo to win Bastad +2000 risk 1

Robredo beat Ferrer here in 2008 and once in hamburg on clay and he has been killing it in the challengers. I hope David wins this but its worth a punt.

Monaco/Berlocq/Haas -169 risk 1.69
Monaco/Berlocq/Haas/Cibulkova -130 risk 1.3
Monaco/Berlocq/Haas/Cibulkova/Bellucci +135 risk 1

Haas -1.5 sets -221 risk 2.21

Bartoli/Cirstea/Goerges/Haas/Cibulkova -133 risk 1.33

Navarro -4 -108 risk 1.08

I still have these parlays pending.

Jankovic/Hewitt -103 risk 2.06

Errani/Cilic/Berlocq (Thursday)/Robredo -114 risk -114

I like the parlays tomorrow, spreads seem a little high but I dont like alot of dogs tomorrow. May try to find some props in the morning

**gregm** · 07-12-12, 08:33 AM

Gulbis +3.5 -102 risk 1.02

Levine +120 risk 1

**dangerfish** · 07-12-12, 09:10 AM

I think Gulbis is a live dog today, this week is def a tough week for top players to motivate.

**gregm** · 07-13-12, 08:17 AM

Ferrer to win Bastad -140 risk 4.2
Robredo to win Bastad +2000 risk 1
Isner to win Newport +376 risk 1
Monaco to win Stuttgart +275 risk 1

Becker +107 risk 1
Traver +4 -125 risk 1.25
Errani/Begu/Isner -150 risk 3

**gregm** · 07-13-12, 11:01 AM

Errani/Williams/Bartoli -157 risk 1.57

Errani/Williams/Bellucci -156 risk 1.56

Errani/Williams/Bartoli/Isner -107 risk 1.07

Bartoli -1.5 sets +105 risk 1

Bartoli is not playing for France in the Olympics and has looked pretty sharp on hard courts this year making the semis at Miami and Doha and Quarters at Indian Wells and Sydney. Wickmayer struggled with her first two matches here going 3 sets each match against some pretty average opposition and Bartoli has dominated the h2h with wickmayer going 3-0, winning them all in straight sets and all of them coming on hard court. Wickmayer has been really all over the place with some her shots and tons of unforced errors and also had 6 double faults against Watson. Bartoli is usually a pretty shaky bet but judging from the h2h, its worth a punt here.

**gregm** · 07-13-12, 11:36 AM

Navarro -180 risk 1.8
Bellucci/Navarro/Errani +131 risk 2
Bellucci/Radwanska/Errani +146 risk 1

**gregm** · 07-13-12, 11:09 PM

Ferrer to win Bastad -140 risk 4.2
Isner to win Newport +376 risk 1
Monaco to win Stuttgart +275 risk 1

I should have just stuck too these futures for these tourneys especially with the olympics around the corner. Of course, Bartoli is not even playing int the olympics and she should have really done well in the build up to the US Open but she just looked awful today, she couldnt get a first serve in to save her life. Sometimes WTA can be pretty frustrating, I hope no one followed that one. I saw your points pavy , thanks and sorry if you looked at that one because of my write up.

Ferrer -1.5 sets -240 risk 2.4

Adding some more on Ferrer to win Bastad -240 risk 4.8

If I am going to lose alot of money on tennis, might as well lose it on someone I admire like David Ferrer. Ferrer may have a tough match with Dimitrov and while Dimitrovs numbers on clay are pretty good they are not as impressive when you look at his opponents. The other two left in Bastad are Almagro and Hajek. Ferrer just owns Almagro, 10-0 in the h2h in advantage of Ferrer, though the last match in Madrid was very tight. Even if Almagro were at 100% with his shoulder, 10-0 is 10-0.

Hajek has great numbers on clay (9-1 in last 10 on clay and 38-12 in last 50) they are deceiving as well once you look at the strength of his opponents. He is 0-5 against any top 10 opponents and has never won a set in any match against a top 10 guy. Even if he were to beat an injured Almagro, I dont see him having much of a chance against David.

Ferrer should win this.

Robson -1.5 +100 risk 2

Very impressed with Robson today.

Bellucci +3 -120 risk 4.8

Ferrer/Errani/Isner +101 risk 3

Ferrer/Errani/Verdasco +102 risk 4

Ferrer/Errani/Monaco -122 risk 4.88

Ram +3 -107 risk 1.07

Dolgo +3 -110 risk 1.10

Dolgo performing

**Vaughany** · 07-14-12, 06:46 AM

lol at tht Love the Way You Lie cover!

**gregm** · 07-14-12, 10:48 AM

Yeah. Dolgo on stage. Star quality.LOL

Isner -2 -128 risk 2.56

Errani/Wickmayer -153 risk 3.06

Isner -2 +104 risk 2

Isner -155 risk 3.10

**gregm** · 07-14-12, 05:43 PM

Don't buy any crap you here about Serenas motivation to win this tourney. All Serena has talked about in her interviews is getting back to number one in the rankings and Stanford is a big first step in the US Open series. She should be adjusted to the time zone hopefully and should crush Cirstea here. I thought about the over or maybe Cirstea +6.5 but after looking at Serenas hard court stats again there is no way I am betting against her here. She has has insane numbers on hard, around 85% lifetime winning percentage on hard courts, and Serena is defending champion here . She will definitely be looking to win this tourney and get these points and get that number 1 ranking back.

I just hope she has adjusted and doesnt come out sluggish in the first set, she really should dominate Cirstea here.

Williams -1.5 sets -299 risk 5.98

Wiliams/Ferrer/Cilic -120 risk 4.8

**gregm** · 07-15-12, 12:02 AM

Ferrer to win Bastad -140 risk 4.2
Ferrer to win Bastad -240 risk 4.8
Isner to win Newport +376 risk 1
Monaco to win Stuttgart +275 risk 1
Wiliams (saturday)/Ferrer/Cilic -120 risk 4.8

I am going to ride out these Monaco and Isner futures, I obviously feel alot better about the Ferrer future but I wish I had of seen Almagro play in this tourney and got an idea of how bad that shoulder is. I would still be on Ferrer here even if Almagro were 100% but I remember that match in madrid and its was as close a match as I have seen between these two. I was not real impressed with what I saw of Monaco and especially his meltdown in the third was ridiculous today but he is still in incredible form. Just going to ride out that future.

Hanescu -170 risk 3.4

Hanescu has had a miserable year but seems to have turned it around in the challenger for a few tourneys at least. Rufin was extremely impressive at Wimbledon but not impressed with Rufins clay numbers, will take the Romanian here in this final in Romania.

Errani/Cilic/Zeballos -104 risk 3.12

Errani/Ferrer/Hanescu +110 risk 2

Ferrer -1.5 sets -143 risk 2.86

Errani -1.5 sets -335 risk 3.35

Cilic -1.5 sets -108 risk 2.16

**gregm** · 07-15-12, 09:55 AM

Errani/Williams/Isner -140 risk 1.4

**gregm** · 07-15-12, 11:33 AM

Errani 2-0/Williams 2-0/Giants (MLB) +138 risk 3

**gregm** · 07-16-12, 12:48 AM

YTD 232-222 +35.80

Fish to win BB&T Atlanta +406 risk 2

Isner to win BB&T Atlanta +240 risk 2

Roddick to win BB&T Atlanta +583 risk 1

I am coming off one of the best days of the year, 12-1 and the Monaco future only kept me from running the table. Thanks Pavy for the points. I am really glad I didnt take these small tourneys off, its been a great week but there is no Ferrer here this week and these tourneys this week are going to be a crapfest in terms of trying to find any futures. All the big names, except the red hot Errani, are taking this week off but there should some really good spots with all the tennis going on if you can figure out motivation with the Olympics so close.

I really like Fish here in Atlanta, he has never lost here at this tourney winning it two years in a row by beating Isner in the finals. Fish is not participating in the olympics and I thought he looked good at wimbledon considering the few tournaments he has played in this yea. He made it to the round of 16 at wimbledon and had a good showing back in March in Miami, that was a big health scare he went through, but lets see how he rebounds here. Isner has been incredible here on serve, he had 28 aces last year against Muller, 30 aces in in one match match against Blake last year as well. John had 33 aces against Muller in one match the previous year, he just unloads in this tourney on this hard court.

I thought about Nishi but he has been pretty disappointing here lately, maybe Roddick might win this but he hasnt shown much interest in Atlanta in his career. With Isner, Nishi and Roddick in the Olympics, I hope Fish comes out here motivated and gets a win this year.

Robredo-1.5 sets +107 risk 2

I know Robredo just lost to this guy this month, I took a punt on robredo in that match but he was probably exhausted after one hell of a run through the challengers and has much better numbers on the surface. He was the only one who took a set off Ferrer in Sweden.

Simon -2.5 -109 risk 1.09

Mathieu +2.5 +101 risk 1

Henrych +121 risk 1

Muller -1.5 +132 risk 1

Barthel -3 -123 risk 1.23

Barthel -1.5 sets +136 risk 1

Barthel/Bertens u20.5 -112 risk 1.12

Tsurenko +5 -126 risk 1.26

Bachinger +111 risk 1

Bachinger/Haase o22.5 -113 risk 1.13

Anderson/Baker/Mchale/Lepchenko +130 risk 1

**gregm** · 07-16-12, 11:10 AM

A little more on Muller -1.5 +118 risk 1

Davis +107 risk 1

Anderson -1.5 sets -213 risk 2.13

**gregm** · 07-16-12, 12:26 PM

Thanks diggity. I have always liked Lepchenko, I met her once and very nice girl in person and an interesting story to her life and her tennis career. I dont see much here to back gibbs, her wins have all been in challengers and Lepchenko has much more impressive stats and she has a few impressive scalps in her career. I saw a comment about her shoulder on tennis insight but like most of the stuff on there from some punters its probably wrong. She sounds pretty good from this article yesterday from a san diego paper http://www.nctimes.com/sports/olympi...4fffea2eb.html and nothing on her twitter site.

Hopefully she does well here and goes into the olympics strong.

Lepchenko -1.5 sets -120 risk 2.4

**gregm** · 07-16-12, 08:02 PM

Mahut hasnt been profitable for me at all in quite a while, but Capdeville is more challenger level. As miserable as Mahuts numbers are this year, he shouldn't lose to the 135th ranked Chilean here but not alot of confidence on this one. Really thought about Capdeville with the handicap.

Mahut/Fognini/De Bakker(Bercuit) -102 risk 1.02

**gregm** · 07-16-12, 11:20 PM

YTD 243-226 +43.75

Fish to win BB&T Atlanta +406 risk 2

Isner to win BB&T Atlanta +240 risk 2

Roddick to win BB&T Atlanta +583 risk 1

Parlays still open
Mahut/Fognini/De Bakker(Bercuit) -102 risk 1.02
Anderson/Baker/Mchale/Lepchenko +130 risk 1

I have gone 23-5 over the last few days and it makes me very uncomfortable, I am used to grinding out a few units a week. These kinds of runs don't last and especially with these small tourneys. Lets put an end to this great run right now and nobody can put out a losing effort and lose you money like Ernests Gulbis.

Ernests Gulbis -112 risk 1.12

I am really kidding , I really want Gulbis to win me some money. I have been to Gstaad and it has some very nice scenery and ski resorts, there is coke and girls and anything you want I am sure if you have the money but maybe Ernests got some rest. Volandri has alot of retirements here lately but he actually has better numbers on the surface than Gulbis and while Gulbis has been utter garbage lately, Volandri isnt getting any younger. Gulbis should win here but this is really gambling at its worst when you put money on this guy.

Brown -1.5 +108 risk 2

Malisse -2.5 -116 risk 2.32

Arvidsson+3 -113 risk 2.26

Kubot/Haas/Kohli +144 risk 1

I dont have good numbers on Kubot and I dont have alot of confidence in this one but I watched Dodig in Croatia and he just seems utterly lost on clay. Just dismal numbers on the surface for Dodig.

Kohli/Haas/Verdasco +103 risk 2

Kohli/Haas/Harrison +110 risk 1

Kohli/Haas/Almagro +122 risk 1

Almagros tweet on his shoulder. This is translated from spanish, I dont know what that upskirt means, maybe he was looking up girls skirts at the hamburg airport. He sounds good but he took a picture of the shoulder.

http://twitter.com/NicoAlmagro/status/224504309486850049/photo/1

"Waiting out the plane to Hamburg, I doubt q do not know if upskirt or not ... seems q shoulder is getting better, we'll see! AS5

**gregm** · 07-17-12, 09:14 AM

Fognini -4 -108 risk 1.08

**beefcake** · 07-17-12, 10:11 AM

Greg, you just got spammed!!

**gregm** · 07-17-12, 10:28 AM

what happened beef?

**beefcake** · 07-17-12, 10:46 AM

Mods took care of it.Bastard was spamming about a pay service..

**gregm** · 07-17-12, 10:58 AM

Oh. Funny. That stuff seems to be endemic around here lately. I wonder why people think that spamming a board would ever help them gain clients for whatever they do. The only touts I have ever used was Ras for basketball ,LT for everything, and Dr. Bob for football. I just cant imagine paying for a service in tennis, so much of the stuff you see on boards like the lepchenko info about her shoulder is just wrong and so many bad cappers out there on ti, menstennisforums, etc., I just cant imagine paying for picks.

I definitely would only cap tennis myself, very few people do any serious research into their picks ,I just cant imagine paying for that stuff. Tennis insight is the worst for the misinformation at least among their posters

That gulbis was -2 -112 pushed.. Fognini off to a wretched start.Great