EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah dunno, my totals opinions have been shit lately. It's hard to know what Dolgy can do or not do against Ferrer on this surface since their two meetings were last summer on hard courts. Kind of tough to like Dolgy though since he got housed by Ferrer on a surface you'd think would favor Dolgopolov more. Of course, he's probably a better player at this point though. Certainly was not overly impressed with Ferrer against Monaco, but Monaco also knows Ferrer's game well. Dolgopolov will have to serve exceptionally well to stay in this one and not engage Ferrer in long rallies IMO where Ferrer will force him into mistakes and/or putting shots past him.

I actually think the Almagro-Bellucci match is a better over proposition.

[EaglesPhan36]

Larsson can't convert on any of nine break points. Wound up getting smoked 6-2 in the opening set. Several very long games with multiple break opps that probably turned the tide against her when she failed to get them. Need an early break here in the 2nd or it's toast time.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well with this pending loss, I think I'll quit for the week and not give any more to the books.

[face]

eagles fan- Almagro has been playing his ass off, but odds are pretty good on Almagro NOT winning 2-0 against T. Bellucci (-130). Only thing is I don't trust Bellucci. Do you think Bellucci has a chance to win one set? No sweat if you don't know, just thought i'd ask.

[koscheckbaby]

Isn't Ferrer too good a clay courter to be only in the low -200s against Dolgo?

[EaglesPhan36]

Dolgopolov is talented on this surface too. Interesting match. Dolgy hasn't played a lot of the top dirt ballers yet, so these sort of matches tell the tale. Almagro is the best he played this year and he took care of him fairly easily. Ferrer has been in super form this year, so I'd find it hard for him to lose - but his match against Monaco showed he's not immune to playing like crap for a set.

[EaglesPhan36]

Think I will monitor Ferrer-Dolgopolov and see if there might be a live bet to make. Why not.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dolgo gets an early break, up 3-1.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ferrer again off to a slow start. Dolgo flirting with trouble though with 35% first serves in. Ferrer not much better though. 4-1.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dolgo 1st set 7-5. Sloppy by both really. Dolgo was in firm control and set to serve out at 5-3, but was broke. Evened at 5, but Ferrer struggled and got broke in the last game.

[EaglesPhan36]

ferrer in control now. Dolgo's serve getting handled easily now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ferrer 6-1 in the 2nd. Expecting Ferrer to find that one simple break in the 3rd to win.

[EaglesPhan36]

Think I fibbed about being finished this week. I'll probably lose, but I like some of these matches this afternoon/evening. Dogs much like this morning look enticing.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP DELRAY BEACH: NISHIKORI +195
I absolutely think Kei has a shot against Tipsarevic today. The two played early in the season in Chennai with Tipsarevic winning 6-4, 6-4. That match was a decent battle with Tipsarevic scoring three breaks to Nishikori's one. Where the Serb really excelled was pounding his 2nd serve in effectively, winning 83% of the few points played on 2nd serve. This week, both have been solid. Tipsarevic though has had some troubles converting breakers, having to play four tie breaks in seven sets. He has won all four however and dropped just one set. Nishikori has played two breakers, splitting those, and has dropped just onet set this week. Tipsarevic has rarely been broken this week, but I THINK the feeling to me is that if Nishikori can break the Serb in the 1st set ... he'll have an opportunity to do some damage and potentially win this match today. Nishikori must continue to serve well which he did well against Sweeting yesterday. If he gets his 1st serve in consistently, that will help.

[Optional]

Think I fibbed about being finished this week. I'll probably lose, but I like some of these matches this afternoon/evening. Dogs much like this morning look enticing.

I decided I was finished yesterday too, but couldn't resist Nishikori at +180 either.
I like Fish's chances as the dog too.

[EaglesPhan36]

Still thinking about that one ... only in that I think Fish on the handicap might be my play at +3. Neither DelPo or Fish has been challenged one bit this week, so it will be interesting to see who deals better with the pressure. I am expecting a tight one, so I think even if he loses the +3 could be a nice one to have.

[EaglesPhan36]

Now jumping on Nishikori at +195. At least it's a nice price.

[Optional]

Hmmm... he's now gone to +210 at 5D

Wonder if there is some news/rumor.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't read anything into line movement in tennis any more. I think it's just people getting on-board with the guy who hits the ball harder on a fast surface.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pretty simple set. Went on-serve to 4-4 and then Nishikori blew it. Simple 6-4 Tipsarevic win in the 1st. Only one break chance for both.

[EaglesPhan36]

Think a tie break is really Nishikori's only shot to take a set right now. He's not getting much of Tipsarevic at all and his serve is starting to get got. Probably gonna be over quick at 6-4, 6-4 again or worse.

[Optional]

Ho hum... been that sorta day.

At least I won 60 points to brighten it up a little.

[EaglesPhan36]

At least I was accurate about something, I was gonna lose anything I bet.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP DELRAY BEACH: FISH +230
Taking a stab here. Del Potro is in good form this week and so is Fish. The guy who wins here, I THINK wins the tournament tomorrow. DelPo has impressively not faced a break point since the 1st round. Fish has also been sound with just three breakers faced and all three saved last match vs. Falla. Both look healthy. Question here is this the time for Del Potro to move beyond the semis? 0-2 so far this year at this stage. Should be fairly simple. Expect tough serving and any break opps given will decide the match. If it goes to a tie break, DelPo probably has a small edge as he has not lost a tie break this season in four shots. Fish is 1-1. For me, this comes down to Del Potro not having beaten the best players he's faced during his comeback. Fish might not be quite a Top 10 talent, but he's close and DelPo has lost to Verdasco and Roddick in his last two tournaments ...

[EaglesPhan36]

Dogs playing like dogs. Losing is cool!

Fish actually had an early break in the 2nd, but yacked it right back up. Lost 6-1 in the 1st. Guess he's ready to go home and bone his wife.

[EaglesPhan36]

Delpo playing like a dog too. Just lost a love service game right after that. Shit Fish, if he wants to hand you the set ... fukkin take it home boy.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is some low quality shit.


Break. Break. Break. Break.

[Optional]

I guess that should make Tipsy the bet at +400 in the final... (he says with a painful grimace after being reamed on dog bets last 2 days)

[EaglesPhan36]

No way in hell Del Potro should be listed at this price. Fish played pretty poorly and had every chance to stretch it to a 3rd set, but just flat out sucked. With Tiparevic serving like he's served this tournament, this one probably will involve at least one tie break. Tipsarevic +4.5 seems like the best play if you want on Tipsarevic. I think Del Potro is probably going to win this, but if Tipsarevic doesn't falter on-serve then it should be a couple tight sets.

[beefcake]

+4 +105 at 5 dimes..Tip tip tip Tippy!!! Safer I agree with allowing to be broken twice and still winning at +4.5

[beefcake]

Jesus f'ing christ tippy...Up 4-1 and chocked it away...There is so bad juju in here..

[EaglesPhan36]

That extra 0.5 to 4.5 I think is going to be a difference maker. Tipsarevic shot his wad in the opening set. I'm expecting one simple break in the 2nd and Del Potro wins it 6-4, 6-4 or 7-5 something like that. Tie break would be great for the handicap so long as JMDP just wins it now.

[beefcake]

Del po is gassed. F'in tippy can just keep it in the court he can win this much less cover.

[beefcake]

Fukk this..Mental tippy..A smarter and lesser player would have figured out how to win this match

[EaglesPhan36]

This match is very much like yesterday's. Del Potro handed Tipsarevic the first set, but he didn't take it. DelPo handed Fish the 2nd set last night and he didn't take it.