EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #3641
    I can't back Sock. Way too green still. I'm still waiting for the handicaps and totals to come out before I start getting into 1st round picks. I think the price is about right for Cilic-Harrison based on experience. Mind you, I would not trust Cilic at that price, but Harrison hasn't beaten anyone on this surface to warrant much less than the price is now. His best win was in March against Raonic who probably was a bit fatigued from Davis Cup play right before that tournament. I think a play on the over might work for me, but I'm betting the books set it too high for my liking which would be anything in the 40s.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #3642
      What the F has gotten into Benneteau this week? Wow. Of course it always helps that Isner has zero return game.
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #3643
        Lisicki-Rezai Under 19.5 [-130]
        Lisicki has been dominant all week and kept her court time minimal in doing so. That's a huge plus in the 100+ degree heat in TX. Rezai has run through qualis and now to the finals on the tail end of a long, draining match yesterday against Kerber. They're playing in the heat of the day in Grapevine where it's 105-ish and the temp on the court is probably 10-15 degrees hotter. I think the conditions will again make Lisicki's serve tough to touch and Rezai may not want to be here for long today.
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #3644
          Another EZ banker. Lisicki destroyed her 6-2, 6-1. She's got to be considered a nice darkhorse at the Open.
          Comment
          • jdrb
            SBR High Roller
            • 08-19-10
            • 102

            #3645
            Indeed. She reached the Wimbledon semis after winning Birmingham, she could go on another run after winning Dallas. When she's hot, she stays hot.
            Comment
            • tommygun
              SBR MVP
              • 07-01-10
              • 2239

              #3646
              Lisicki has the mental capacity of a hormonal teenager, seen her get to finals and choke on 2 occasions which have lost me money.
              BETTING EXCHANGES, easy money.

              Soccer Tipping: 5-0-1
              Comment
              • bigcat21
                SBR Hustler
                • 08-30-10
                • 53

                #3647
                what future plays are you going with? I'm looking at nadal, and tsonga
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #3648
                  Originally posted by tommygun
                  Lisicki has the mental capacity of a hormonal teenager, seen her get to finals and choke on 2 occasions which have lost me money.
                  The futures play on most women is simply an investment to hedge on at the right spot in the tournament and make some money ... with maybe a 10% chance that if you pick the right girl from the right draw that you might get lucky and have a semifinalist or maybe even a finalist. It's not like the men's side where I think you have an opportunity with a few guys at 4:1-ish odds to maybe actually win if Djokovic isn't 100%.
                  Comment
                  • bigcat21
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 08-30-10
                    • 53

                    #3649
                    For what I hear, Djokovic shoulder is bad. With the courts playing fast I like Tsonga, but beating Fish, and Federer back to back will but tough for him. If there was a different seed then Fish, really like Tsonga. I like Nadal's quarter think he will be the freshest in the semis.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #3650
                      Tsonga isn't any healthier than Djokovic. He's had a forearm issue for a few weeks. Sure, he could be fine. Sure, Djokovic could be fine after eight days off. Bottom line with any futures play, if your guy/gal has an injury concern then you really have to get a great price to make them a worthy play. My opinion on Djokovic is that you need to see him play his first match. Most books keep futures open through at least the 1st round so you can still make a play even if the price drops a little by the 1st round being played. The price won't change that much and you can gather more info from that match than trying to guess before they even get on-court.

                      The futures that I like more than outrights is getting a player to win their quarter of the draw. These are usually much more reasonable expectations and you can get a decent price for a player to need five wins instead of seven to win the whole thing.
                      Comment
                      • face
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-31-11
                        • 14740

                        #3651
                        ep do you have any opinion on this play? federico gil +8 games vs. dolgopolov -114? i want to play it, 6-2 6-2 and it pushes. don't know all that much about either player though, except that dolgopolov screws me over when i back him
                        Comment
                        • Allure
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-18-10
                          • 7606

                          #3652
                          Originally posted by face
                          ep do you have any opinion on this play? federico gil +8 games vs. dolgopolov -114? i want to play it, 6-2 6-2 and it pushes. don't know all that much about either player though, except that dolgopolov screws me over when i back him
                          Grand slams are 3-setters.
                          Comment
                          • face
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-31-11
                            • 14740

                            #3653
                            Originally posted by Allure

                            Grand slams are 3-setters.
                            thanks, forgot
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #3654
                              It's best of 5 set guys. That means they could play anywhere from 3-5 sets. No opinion. I will watch Dolgopolov and see where his head/bank account are at for this one. He could easily cover 8 with a three set sweep of Gil or screw around and and drop a set. Not anything I want any part of.
                              Comment
                              • tommygun
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-01-10
                                • 2239

                                #3655
                                hey eagles have you got any tennis plays for tonight/tomorrow US open?
                                BETTING EXCHANGES, easy money.

                                Soccer Tipping: 5-0-1
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #3656
                                  Working on some stuff. Will post some plays later.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #3657
                                    Another good one. Haase Twitter.

                                    robin_haase Robin Haase



                                    Car/train/subway/plain/boat. Nothing is possible at the moment to get to New York. Trying to teleport. Can't figure it out though.
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #3658
                                      WTA US OPEN FUTURES
                                      Li +1800
                                      Stosur +4400
                                      Sharapova +530

                                      ATP US OPEN FUTURES
                                      Nadal to Win His Quarter -145
                                      Murray to Win His Quarter -130

                                      The WTA picks are all for half a unit and to win the tournament outright. ATP picks are for a full unit.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #3659
                                        US Open Picks [8/29]
                                        Parlay: Nishikori/Cipolla Over 33.5 + Cilic/Harrison Over 38.5 [+242]
                                        Granollers +130
                                        Robson +125
                                        Zeballos +5.5 [+100]
                                        Comment
                                        • Chaz22
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-30-10
                                          • 1152

                                          #3660
                                          Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                          US Open Picks [8/29]
                                          Parlay: Nishikori/Cipolla Over 33.5 + Cilic/Harrison Over 38.5 [+242]
                                          Granollers +130
                                          Robson +125
                                          Zeballos +5.5 [+100]
                                          Granollers is not a good choice on hard courts, but Malisse might get angry at some point if granny can force long-rallies. And Cilic over? Harrison will get destroyed in 3 sets IMO.
                                          Other picks are good.
                                          Comment
                                          • adamo1018
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 01-16-11
                                            • 451

                                            #3661
                                            Originally posted by Chaz22
                                            Granollers is not a good choice on hard courts, but Malisse might get angry at some point if granny can force long-rallies. And Cilic over? Harrison will get destroyed in 3 sets IMO.
                                            Other picks are good.
                                            I agree. Usually Malisse trees so hard in the first couple rounds of the US open, winning like two epic 5 setters that are the best matches you've ever seen and then gets pounded in straights by the first good player he meets.
                                            Comment
                                            • adamo1018
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 01-16-11
                                              • 451

                                              #3662
                                              But that doesnt mean its going to happen this year. Granollers clearly has had a better year, but surface and experience are in Malisse's favor. It should be a 4-5 setter and a good match. What do you think of Gonzalez, EP? I think he might take down Dr. Ivo today. Thoughts?
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #3663
                                                Don't know what to think of Gonzalez at this point. Karlovic is obviously always prone to being beaten if his serve is off. I just haven't seen enough from Gonzo yet to expect much, not that I would be surprised if Ivo flopped.

                                                As far as Granollers v. Malisse. There are some issues with Malisse from health to the even more important mental aspect. Malisse has a court date in September regarding an investigation in doping allegations that have been pending for two years. He's always been one to let outside influences effect his on-court play and that is part of my reasoning today.

                                                That his price is so low I think reflects these question marks because otherwise, he definitely would be a larger favorite.
                                                Comment
                                                • Chaz22
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-30-10
                                                  • 1152

                                                  #3664
                                                  Originally posted by adamo1018
                                                  But that doesnt mean its going to happen this year. Granollers clearly has had a better year, but surface and experience are in Malisse's favor. It should be a 4-5 setter and a good match. What do you think of Gonzalez, EP? I think he might take down Dr. Ivo today. Thoughts?
                                                  Gonzo hasnt played lately and could get himself in trouble physically, and Ivo if stays focused must get through eventually. But it could be a long match.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • tevari
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-02-07
                                                    • 4959

                                                    #3665
                                                    Tailing you on Zeballos. GL today
                                                    Comment
                                                    • p3re
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 11-13-10
                                                      • 432

                                                      #3666
                                                      EaglesPhan36 may i know what's your average Yield? you are such a great tipster! thanks for posting your plays
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #3667
                                                        Really probably not much better than 52% 55% at best - winners maybe over the course of the year. I run VERY hot and cold. So when you see streaks of either ... consider that.


                                                        I also don't think I've had a winning Day 1 in any of the Slams this year. At least it seems like I haven't.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #3668
                                                          Good boy Nishikori for retiring, at least half the parlay stays alive. Harrison has blown several chances though, so not sure if that total is gonna hit by its lonesome anyhow ...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JNic
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-03-10
                                                            • 4272

                                                            #3669
                                                            Good job with the Granollers pick, I didn't have the balls to pull the trigger on that one. Zeballos spread looks great to far too, you basically got a +5.5 on a best of 3
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #3670
                                                              We'll see. I've seen too many 0-2 comebacks in Slams before, but I don't think Malisse has the heart right now to do it ... hopefully. Zeballos should be a decent shot if he can win one more set, but I'd be just as happy if he lost 6-4, 6-4 in the next two. Harrison blew the 2nd set. Cilic let him hang around, but Harrison's serve is not working. Kinda thought this is what could happen ... one of those "hype" matches about how good it will be and it's probably gonna be a straight sets outster for Harrison.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JNic
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-03-10
                                                                • 4272

                                                                #3671
                                                                Yea Malisse will not come back, Granollers forces you to win every point
                                                                Comment
                                                                • tevari
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-02-07
                                                                  • 4959

                                                                  #3672
                                                                  Any late insight on your Robson pick? Is it just a lack of form lately for Morita?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JNic
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-03-10
                                                                    • 4272

                                                                    #3673
                                                                    Robson is really hot
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JNic
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-03-10
                                                                      • 4272

                                                                      #3674
                                                                      Robson sneaks out that first set tiebreak 7-5
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                                        • 71662

                                                                        #3675
                                                                        3-1, only the parlay crashes out thanks to Harrison's ineptitude. Forgot about this one that I had outlined last night.

                                                                        Jaziri -102
                                                                        Comment
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