EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[gangeriver]

Adding ...

WTA New Haven: McHale-Suarez Navarro Over 20 [-115]

good luck EP! I just took it

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah that sucked. I thought Navarro would be competitive. On the plus side, Strode won in qualis to make it about a .500 day money-wise. Gonna follow this kid, much more likable than Donald Young ... surprised he has not gotten more press being a black tennis player from the US. He's got a young French player up next. Interested to see the price. Definitely would back this kid again as long as they don't start hanging him with a bad price.

[EaglesPhan36]

US Open Quali Plays
Parlay: Capdeville + Zemlja [-107]
Knittel +157

Quick Hitter on these plays: Capdeville in great form having won the Binghamton Challenger coming in here. He also has the experience edge over Weintraub with several trips to the main draw @ the US Open. Zemlja also has done some nice lead-up at the Challenger level and faces Luczak who played his first hard court match since January in qualis @ Winston-Salem this past week. That ended in a loss to a player ranked in the 400s who is maybe 30% of the player Zemlja is right now. Knittel play is an outright fade of Zverev who is in miserable form and 0-5 at the Open/Qualis in his career. Knittel isn't a hard court type, but he won't be overmatched here IMO.

Winston-Salem Uno
Nishikori -125

[tommygun]

Hey mate what is your opinion of Isner v Nieminen? I personally think Isner will win, home town, friends, family at match etc.

[EaglesPhan36]

I said before the tournament, I thought Isner could sleepwalk into the finals here if he really wanted to. Of course the only issue with Isner is if he's motivated to play deep here or not. The only problem I have is if he plays a typical Isner match and lazily rambles into tie breaks ... he's always just a point or two away from being a large chalk loss. That being said, Nieminen is someone he should be able to dominate with on-serve and have his service games held easily if he's 100%. I'd expect Isner in two tight sets, but would not be shocked if the Fin took a set.

[tommygun]

I said before the tournament, I thought Isner could sleepwalk into the finals here if he really wanted to. Of course the only issue with Isner is if he's motivated to play deep here or not. The only problem I have is if he plays a typical Isner match and lazily rambles into tie breaks ... he's always just a point or two away from being a large chalk loss. That being said, Nieminen is someone he should be able to dominate with on-serve and have his service games held easily if he's 100%. I'd expect Isner in two tight sets, but would not be shocked if the Fin took a set.

thx

[Demonata]

I wonder if dolgopolov will play to win today or not?

[Tom Jane]

Yeah that sucked. I thought Navarro would be competitive. On the plus side, Strode won in qualis to make it about a .500 day money-wise. Gonna follow this kid, much more likable than Donald Young ... surprised he has not gotten more press being a black tennis player from the US. He's got a young French player up next. Interested to see the price. Definitely would back this kid again as long as they don't start hanging him with a bad price.

Definitely agreed on Navarro, seems like a genuinely good kid. I just wonder if they don't want to put him on the hype train they did with Young in juniors.

Knittel play is an outright fade of Zverev who is in miserable form and 0-5 at the Open/Qualis in his career. Knittel isn't a hard court type, but he won't be overmatched here IMO.

I typically like Mischa, but admittedly nationality comes a bit into play. I'm too ambivalent with this play, but he does suck at the US. You'll have me thinking about it a bit.

I said before the tournament, I thought Isner could sleepwalk into the finals here if he really wanted to. Of course the only issue with Isner is if he's motivated to play deep here or not. The only problem I have is if he plays a typical Isner match and lazily rambles into tie breaks ... he's always just a point or two away from being a large chalk loss. That being said, Nieminen is someone he should be able to dominate with on-serve and have his service games held easily if he's 100%. I'd expect Isner in two tight sets, but would not be shocked if the Fin took a set.

The Fighting Finn always puts on a good show. But at this stage in Jarkko's career, Isner should be an easy win. Key word is 'should', as Isner has the talent and physical blessings to be a top 16 player or better, but like all too many players, lacks the consistency.

[Gaskan]

US Open Quali Plays
Parlay: Capdeville + Zemlja [-107]
Knittel +157

Quick Hitter on these plays: Capdeville in great form having won the Binghamton Challenger coming in here. He also has the experience edge over Weintraub with several trips to the main draw @ the US Open. Zemlja also has done some nice lead-up at the Challenger level and faces Luczak who played his first hard court match since January in qualis @ Winston-Salem this past week. That ended in a loss to a player ranked in the 400s who is maybe 30% of the player Zemlja is right now. Knittel play is an outright fade of Zverev who is in miserable form and 0-5 at the Open/Qualis in his career. Knittel isn't a hard court type, but he won't be overmatched here IMO.

Winston-Salem Uno
Nishikori -125

I am with you on Nishikori, that surely should fuKk up your pick .. LOL

[tevari]

ep, can you give me some insight on your nishikori pick?

[dlweaver]

Nishikori has been exceptional at this event 5-0 (including qualifying). He's playing some of his best tennis i've seen on hard courts. I've watched him personally and would back this pick as well. Kamke completely fell apart yesterday and frustration carried Monaco to the win not necessarily great play.

[dlweaver]

Also a lot can be put into interviews and the players mindsets and Roddick is completely focused on "this tournament" and NOT "the US open" because he feels like he is not in form and needs to win this to have any shot at doing well in the open. I think backing him even at high odds up until the semi's should be easy money.

[tommygun]

I'm wary of roddick, can't trust him atm

[Tom Jane]

I'm wary of roddick, can't trust him atm

unfortunately, that's exactly how i feel, too.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nishikori, much of what was said above - he's looked solid through qualifying and a couple matches in the main draw. Monaco has never been a great hard court player, he's adequate I think against players who are less comfortable on the surface that he is - being definitely more of a clay court guy. If you look at Monaco's few matches on this surface over the last year, you can see his wins have come against mostly Challenger level or slightly above guys or someone like Haas who is very rusty and not much of a threat. Nishikori has great speed and court coverage which I think frustrates slightly older guys like Monaco who are not going to want to run around and engage in rallies. He'll have to work his serve well against Monaco, but at the end of the day I think he advances here.

[beefcake]

Goddam you Denko. Thanks for losing you basterd.. Need to find a new stiff to heckle..

[beefcake]

Maybe baggy?

[EaglesPhan36]

DOLGOPOLOV ... if he manages to win. I'd bring double your original monopoly money stash to throw at him though, he's a high roller.

[Demonata]

DOLGOPOLOV ... if he manages to win. I'd bring double your original monopoly money stash to throw at him though, he's a high roller.

Dolgopolov can be so frustrating. He's the king of losing 6-1 in a set at least once per match. Does he bet on that set or something?

[beefcake]

I will have to look for the Fat Russian Mobster in Section 1A with the vodka giving him the sign to tank it..

[Demonata]

I will have to look for the Fat Russian Mobster in Section 1A with the vodka giving him the sign to tank it..

[EaglesPhan36]

Knittel whippin' that Zverev ass in qualis right now. Gonna close that clown out in straights. Perfect example of some of the soft lines you can find in qualis where the books put a higher than needed price on a higher ranked player.

[EaglesPhan36]

Qualis parlay cashes. Good day @ the Open today. Kei for the sweep?

[Gaskan]

You can thank me later for mushing your Nish play.

[EaglesPhan36]

He didn't need much help today.

[EaglesPhan36]

US Open Qualis
Strode -135
Bubka +120
Parlay: Berankis + Soeda [-102]

[tevari]

you seen to be really keen on this strode character. having knowing nothing about him, i will blindly tail you on him

[EaglesPhan36]

Being an American, he's most at home on hard courts. Followed some of his matches this summer and seems comfortable on-court and has a good college tennis background @ UCLA. His opponent today is definitely a clay court type which should give Strode a chance to advance.

By the way, if the weather models are right ... sincerely doubt we are going to see the US Open start until at least Tuesday. Forecasts have Hurricane Irene hitting the NYC area late Sunday into Monday, right when the Open is supposed to begin.

[EaglesPhan36]

Strode getting some steam, now @ -170. I'm going to parlay him with Stakhovsky @ +161 to reduce the overall risk.

[tevari]

Staks will probably hit - benneteau should be exhausted.

[tevari]

Berankis getting bageled in the first.

[EaglesPhan36]

Maybe the rain will wash the crap off his game.

[tevari]

Possibly!

[EaglesPhan36]

They can funnel all the rain in NY down here to TX where we need it and get on with the tennis! Doesn't look too promising for a whole helluva lot today.

[apeterlives]

and it'l only get worse this weekend it's only the tip of irene