1. #36
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Cup, Mens Singles, SF
    Serbia vs Russia
    Novak Djokovic vs Daniel Medvedev
    Handicap: Novak Djokovic -3, 2.20 (alt) on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Taking a bit of extra juice (on the mobile site it shows all the lines available) and I think the QF was a bit of a wake up call for Novak who I feel had another fear in him here. Buying low after two straight losses against his opponent who has looked mentally off at times as well. Novak steps up in the deep stages of the tournament and being close to this inaugural trophy with his team mates also playing well I think he will want to finish this tie early again.

  2. #37
    Jeff_Black
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    15 - 13 - 2 (+13.391u)

    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, Qualifiers

    Marc Polmans vs Salvatore Carusco
    Moneyline: Salvatore Carusco, 1.934 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Bolt match cancelled, must have pulled out of it. Thought playing matches in December would have worked in his favour, it seems not.

    Anyway, think Carusco can back up what he showed last year, liked what I saw. On a neutral surface he's the better player in most aspects and someone that can transition to the Main Tour, Polmans isn't and like some other Aussie guys doesn't really continue his dominance outside of Australia. Think the odds are off and he can win this one.

  3. #38
    Jeff_Black
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    WTA Auckland 250, Womens Singles, SF
    Serena Williams vs Amanda Anisimova
    Moneyline: Amanda Anisimova, 3.35 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Auckland has had windy conditions (a mental note for those looking into the mens) and both players have struggled with that over the past week as well. But I think Animisova has played well enough to get the upset here and continue her run of form from 2019. Serena is playing in doubles as well as singles, and at her age (38) I feel like her match practice may be enough for her to be happy enough to pack her bags and head back to Australia. She is also scheduled to play in the Charity for Bushfires match before the Australian Open. So she will get some time on court next week regardless.
    The last time Serena made a final (let alone won) outside of the Slams/Masters was in 2014. Everyone knows these days she is geared towards trying to get that 24th slam and being a part time tennis player. I think this result will show that.

  4. #39
    Conqueror
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    I'm actually surprised she's taking this tournament seriously. Her friend, Wozniacki, will be retiring after the Australian Open.
    Do you know Kim Clijster is back playing tennis?

  5. #40
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    I'm actually surprised she's taking this tournament seriously. Her friend, Wozniacki, will be retiring after the Australian Open.
    Do you know Kim Clijster is back playing tennis?
    I was aware that she was back.
    I am surprised too. Shes playing in doubles and shes going to play in an exhibition fundraiser for the Australian bushfires next week too.

    She still has a shot at the US/Wimbledon but I think the AO is past her, conditions are too tough, and it's probably a bit too slow for her liking.

    Wozniacki's peak was basically winning that AO and being #1. Not much point toiling around on the tour if you're not going to win another slam plus she wants to have kids and doesnt want to wait long for that.
    Not surprised she's calling it.

  6. #41
    Jeff_Black
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    17 - 14 - 2 (+14.525u)

    ATP Cup, Mens Singles, SF
    Spain vs Australia
    Rafael Nadal vs Alex De Minaur
    Total Games: Under 21 Games, 1.97 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Big Second Semi Final but for everything De Minaur has done, Nadal is still a bad match up for him, he's too fast, too strong and De Minaur doesn't get enough on his return or serve to trouble Nadal. Add to that the exhaustion of playing Evans/doubles against GB and I think Nadal will bounce back from the Goffin loss after getting used to the Brisbane conditions.

    ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, Final
    Andrey Rublev vs Corentin Moutet
    Total Games: Under 21.5 Games, 1.869 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 2u play

    Corentin Moutet has had a good run in Doha but I think that run after playing back to back three setters comes to an end for him. Rublev has been crushing the ball all week and the match time he got in Abu Dhabi looks to have paid off for him. No one has been able to handle hits shots and serving and I think that will continue in this final. He certaintly looks to be making up for lost time after his injuries a few years ago and this Final will likely not be any different.

  7. #42
    Conqueror
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    As for Wozniacki, her athritis might also have something to do with it.
    Sharapova could be next to retire.

    Congrats on Caruso!

    Keep an eye on Finland's Russuvuori. He's coming.

  8. #43
    Jeff_Black
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    Cheers, I am going to keep an eye on him if he gets some qualifying spots to main events for sure.

    Not a lot of those qualifiers have matches worth wagering action on being ranking lopsided and all, but I am tempted to take John Patrick Smith against Jarry in the last of the Adelaide qualifiers for some reason. He has gone okay here. I just would have thought the odds would be a lot less closer considering his limited success on Challengers last year despite being at home. On paper Jarry should win but I wonder if other things suggest otherwise...

  9. #44
    Jeff_Black
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    18 - 15 - 2 (+15.263u)

    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, R1
    Pablo Cuevas vs Reilly Opelka
    Set Handicap: Reilly Opelka -1.5 Sets, 2.00 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Cuevas got off to a pretty poor start in 2020 with his ATP Cup matches but despite the fact that Opelka can be rusty I think his serve should continue to be reliable and his power off the ground should force Cuevas to constantly be on the back foot like he was at the ATP Cup. I expect Cuevas to continue to struggle in this match.

    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, R1
    Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik
    Moneyline: Alexander Bublik, 2.51 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Fritz had a disappointing start at the ATP Cup while Bublik was no better, however I think this fast surface should suit Bublik's unpredictably aggressive style. Form wise I don't think there is a big of a difference as the odds suggest and with a win already in the bag over his opponent in 2019 ill take the better odds with Bublik.

  10. #45
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
    Federico Delbonis vs Salvatore Carusco
    Handicap: Salvatore Carusco -1, 1.952 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Carusco took three sets to defeat the home favourite but I think in a similar instance here he is the better player. Debonis has more experience but he's more of a clay guy who doesn't handle the faster hard courts as well. Debonis beat a player who is ranked 502 and has no real business being in Qualifiers for a 250 event apart from it also being in his home country. He's happy to be in the main draw of the AO and collect the nice prizemoney on offer. I expect Carusco to continue his winning ways.

  11. #46
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Adelaide 250, Menís Singles, Qualifiers
    Gregoire Barrerre vs Jaume Munar
    Handicap: Gregoire Barrerre -3, 2.04 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Think the odds are about right here but think Barrerre will win here, heís better on this surface and Iíve favoured his form over his opponent.

  12. #47
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    I'm actually surprised she's taking this tournament seriously. Her friend, Wozniacki, will be retiring after the Australian Open.
    Do you know Kim Clijster is back playing tennis?
    I'm gonna go with the fade again, couldn't be any worse of a result then the SF lol. But Pegula should have the power to make it a competitive match hopefully.

    WTA Auckland 250, Womens Singles, Final
    Serena Williams vs Jessica Pegula
    Moneyline: Jessica Pegula, 6.92 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Close to 7s makes it a play for mine. Was closer to 6s before.

  13. #48
    Jeff_Black
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    19- 17 - 2 (+14.746u), 2 pending

    Not too thrilled with how I am going to be honest, but we persevere

    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, R1
    Alexei Popyrin vs Laslo Djere
    Handicap: Laslo Djere +4, 1.909 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I don't like the idea of the kid being heavily favoured even though he's at home and on a preferred surface, but with that said I guess that's why I am taking the line as while I do believe Djere can get a win here if he plays to a high level I can see a three set match with Alexei's immaturity and inconsistencies.

    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
    Nicolas Jarry vs Tommy Paul
    Moneyline: Nicolas Jarry, 2.38 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

  14. #49
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Cup, Mens Singles, Final
    Dusan Lajovic vs Roberto Bautista Agut
    Moneyline: Dusan Lajovic, 4.76 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Odds have drifted out enough for me to like it enough to be a play based off form. Lajovic handled comfortable a taller and more physically talented ball striker in Khachanov who has a better serve and can crush the ball. Bautista is a rock but he is beatable. The Kyrgios win was impressive but he also beat himself that day. When he showed signs of life he had his chances. Lajovic has been playing at a high level and when that is the case you take the better odds.
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 01-12-20 at 01:26 AM.

  15. #50
    Conqueror
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    If I didn't see it in your thread, I wouldn't have believed Popyrin would be favored over Djere.

    BOL on Lajovic.

  16. #51
    Conqueror
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    I like Djokovic -1.5 sets (+110) but can't pull the trigger.

  17. #52
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    If I didn't see it in your thread, I wouldn't have believed Popyrin would be favored over Djere.

    BOL on Lajovic.
    Bit annoyed I didn't pull the trigger on the ML but i'll take the win. His experience got him through in the end I think.
    That's another one I was waiting for to drift out and at the last minute I took the line instead. Didn't drift by much but still got the better price. Ah well.

    Likewise I agree with Djokovic line/set line but just gonna reboot tommorow. Strategically he's just dismantled him today. It's been amazing. Nadal just doesn't get enough out of his serve when he plays Djokovic in comparison to everyone else, and Djokovic didn't convert some break points in another one of Nadals games so this set could have been more lopsided.

    Form suggested it too.
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 01-12-20 at 04:45 AM.

  18. #53
    Conqueror
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    JB,

    There's a match I'm interested in - Stosur/Kudermetova @ Hobart, Australia. It's in the books but it's not listed on Flashscore's schedule. I don't know why. I'm expecting the old horse to upset Kudermetova @ +163.

  19. #54
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    JB,
    There's a match I'm interested in - Stosur/Kudermetova @ Hobart, Australia. It's in the books but it's not listed on Flashscore's schedule. I don't know why. I'm expecting the old horse to upset Kudermetova @ +163.
    Nice, Sounds good. I checked the ATP/WTA app and it's scheduled on Centre Court but 'not before 6:00pm' and its after the Linette/Kuznetsova game. BOL

  20. #55
    Jeff_Black
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    20- 19 - 2 (+13.655u)

    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, R1
    Federico Delbonis vs James Duckworth
    Moneyine: Federico Delbonis, 2.18 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Was pleasantly surprised with Del Bonis' match against Carusco and despite being inconsistent last year he had some good results on Challengers. Fortunately for him Duckworth is a challenger level player and anywhere else outside of Australia the odds would be reversed. Duckworth has struggled on the main tour and the only time you really hear about him is during the Australian Summer. He's had to rely on Wildcards the last few years and hasn't really made the most of it.

    ATP Auckland 250, Mens Singles, R1
    Francis Tiafoe vs Michael Ymer
    Moneyine: Michael Ymer, 2.04 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Liked what I saw from Ymer's qualifying form. Tiafoe has had a bit of a dip in form since breaking out last year in Australia, a lot of early exits and losses. He's got a lot of QF points to defend there so not sure how motivated he will be here but going with Ymer's form.

  21. #56
    Jeff_Black
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    21 - 20 - 2 (+13.695u)

    ATP Auckland 250, Mens Singles, R1
    Joao Sousa vs Vasek Pospisil
    Handicap: Vasek Pospisil -3.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Despite the advantages Sousa has had in the past he has not played much since October as opposed to his opponent who breezed through qualifying with some solid form. Both players are pretty consistent but I'll go with Pospisil's form here.

    ATP Auckland 250, Mens Singles, R1
    Radu Albot vs Marco Cecchinati
    Set Handicap: Radu Albot -1.5 Sets, 2.02 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Albot did lose all of his matches at the ATP Cup but he played superior opposition to the opponent he's facing now. Cecchinato is a sound clay court guy but on hards he's struggled and a measley 7-27 in his career. Expecting Albot on HC's to get the job done comfortably.

    ATP Auckland 250, Mens Singles, R1
    Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Kyle Edmund
    Handicap: Kyle Edmund -3.5, 1.97 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

  22. #57
    Conqueror
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    The 6-1 score in the 3rd set of the Ymer/Tiafoe match confirmed what you said earlier.

  23. #58
    Jeff_Black
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    Still interested to see how he fares in Melbourne with all that said. Donít think he has been far off but he can play like a bum like many of his US counter parts used to do

    Wouldnít be confident in fading hi depending on who he plays

  24. #59
    Jeff_Black
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    23 - 20 - 3 (+15.574u)

    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, R2
    Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jeremy Chardy
    Moneyline: Jeremy Chardy, 1.90 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Pablo played plenty of doubles matches at the ATP Cup but had a less then spectacular display on the Final Day against Serbia. Not much of a sample size to go with but I liked what I saw from Chardy's game against Simon. Think he will be hard to crack on this surface and with a match under his belt I feel it will benefit him as well.

    ATP Auckland 250, Mens Singles, R2
    Thiago Moura Monteiro vs Benoit Paire
    Total Games: Under 23 Games, 1.99 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Paire has most certainly had a strange run and lacking consistency dropping sets he shouldn't really drop. While he should be expected to win I have zero confidence in him so I'm taking another option which I feel can break the trend of his three set matches. Monteiro has a 1-10 record which I think won't continue tommorow, so I'm expecting the step up in level from his qualifying wins to be a big one and too much for him.
    Note: Wasn't intending to look at the Auckland card but weather is scheduled to be cloudy, no rain so we'll see.

  25. #60
    Jeff_Black
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    Australian Open, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
    Viktor Troicki vs Bradley Klahn
    Moneyline: Viktor Troicki, 2.99 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I think winning the ATP Cup with his help in Doubles is genuinely a confidence booster for Troicki who despite his ranking is the better player out of the two here. He had no issue qualifying last year, beating King, Rosol and Mahut along the way. Both players have had miserable declines and are inconsistent but in this instance there is no real value taking the favourite.

    Australian Open, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
    Emil Ruusouvuori vs Facundo Mena
    Moneyline: Facundo Mena, 10.02 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Fair bit of overs of these odds in my opinion. Mena has a solid resume as a Challenger player whos won multiple titles and the motivation to win slams is at an all time high with the prizemoney on offer. When it comes to inconsistent players outside of the top 100 there arent too many lopsided odds that make me notice but this is one of them. And in recent times when your opponent has a 2-0 h2h against you and has figured things out it's worth a shot.

    Australian Open, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
    Quentin Halys vs Akira Santillan
    Moneyline: Quentin Halys, 2.14 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Interesting odds as I have Halys as the better player and think home favouritism might have a hand in the odds. Santillan is an absolute head case for those who have ever watched it and while Halys has been poor on the main tour, he has had some okay results at times. On a neutral surface in a neutral venue he's the better player without a doubt for mine.

  26. #61
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Adelaide 250, Menís Singles, R16
    Andrey Rublev vs Sam Querrey
    Money line: Andrey Rublev, 1.641 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 3u play

    Have been telling myself not to touch Rublev coming off a title in Doha but with adequate rest and his form it is hard to resist. He has done a good job holding/breaking serve and traditionally in the past Querrey has struggled here in Australia based off the other times he has entered tournaments here
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 01-14-20 at 07:24 PM. Reason: Editing write up

  27. #62
    leetreaper
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    Subscribed

  28. #63
    Jeff_Black
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    Australian Open, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
    Taro Daniel vs Nikola Milojevic
    Handicap: Taro Daniel -4, 2.04 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    This shouldnít be a complicated win for Daniel who is facing a guy who has struggled to emerge from the Challenger level circuit and prefers indoors to outdoors. There is a bit of juice but I think itís worth taking

    Australian Open, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
    Steve Darcis vs Elliot Benchetritt
    Money line: Elliot Benetritt, 2.29 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Interesting odds considering the quality of opponent but I do wonder how much is left in the tank for Darcis after announcing he will retire at the Australian Open. He seemed to enjoy the team environment of the ATP Cup but Iím taking a contrarian view against a potentially more motivated opponent.

  29. #64
    Conqueror
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    Tailed that Benchetritt play.

    BTW, is anything wrong with Djere?

  30. #65
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    Tailed that Benchetritt play.

    BTW, is anything wrong with Djere?
    Didnít watch the game so canít say myself. Thought GLH played okay at the ATP Cup. Felt the odds were about right all things considered and didnít see much value on either player.

    French players Chardy/Paire have decided to play and be French it seems.

  31. #66
    Conqueror
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Black View Post
    Didn’t watch the game so can’t say myself. Thought GLH played okay at the ATP Cup. Felt the odds were about right all things considered and didn’t see much value on either player.

    French players Chardy/Paire have decided to play and be French it seems.
    The French being French. Busta is solid though. I expect Paire to rally back and win.

  32. #67
    Jeff_Black
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    Yeah he didnít convert his break point chances and Busta did...

    ATP Auckland 250, Menís Singles, R16
    Vasek Pospisil vs Denis Shapovalov
    Handicap: Denis Shapovalov -3, 2.25 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    ATP Auckland 250, Menís Singles, R16
    John Millman vs Karen Khachanov
    Money line: Karen Khachanov, 1.649 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 3u play

    ATP Adelaide 250, Menís Singles
    James Duckworth vs Felix Auger Aliassime
    Set Handicap; Felix Auger Aliassime -1.5 sets, 2.75 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

  33. #68
    Jeff_Black
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    26 - 23 - 4 (+15.387u), 4 qualifiers bets pending

    ATP Auckland 250, Mens Singles, QF
    Kyle Edmund vs John Isner
    Moneyline: Kyle Edmund, 1.952 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Edmund has played some good tennis these past few days holding his own on serve while hitting the ball pretty well out there. The odds are usually this close despite the ranking because Isner usually likes to chance his luck in tiebreaks. He got worn down against Ruud at the ATP Cup and lost his other two matches in similar fashion because he kept trying to worry about holding his own serve rather then to break the opponent. The Sandgren win could have gone any way and because of his flaky form I am backing Edmund.

    ATP Adelaide 250, Mens Singles, QF
    Andrey Rublev vs Dan Evans
    Moneyline: Andrey Rublev, 1.602 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 2u play

    Similar reasons as always, solid off both wings, been tough to break through, 5 straight wins in 2 sets. Evans has been playing well but he has come up short against better opposition. I think Rublev continues his run again.

  34. #69
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Adelaide 250, Menís Singles, QF
    Pablo Carreno Busta vs Lloyd George Harris
    Set Handicap: Pablo Carreno Busta -1.5 Sets, 2.17 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    ATP Adelaide 250, Menís Singles, QF
    Tommy Paul vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
    Set Handicap: Tommy Paul -1.5 Sets, 2.42 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

  35. #70
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Auckland 250, Menís Singles, QF
    Ugo Humbert vs Denis Shapovalov
    Set Handicap: Denis Shapovalov -1.5 Sets, 2.06 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

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