EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-15-10, 11:32 PM

FERRERO-GREUL OVER 21.5 [-125]
JCF turned it on in the 3rd set against Zeballos after getting a night to sleep on it and looked solid in the 3rd. Greul has played well in his first two matches here, but will need to amp up his game if the JCF who showed up in the 3rd set is the same who comes to play on Friday. Greul needs to get in a high percentage on his 1st serve and keep holding his nerve on break points. He's saved 16 of 18 break opps this tournament. With the home crowd behind him, I think this one will be close and potentially move to 3 sets.

**Wilforth** · 07-16-10, 12:25 AM

I fail to see Mayer as a favorite over Monfils. If Monfils ML was at plus-value, it would have been an auto play for me.

**fsfalcons** · 07-16-10, 12:39 AM

thanks for the info about szavay

**rumple** · 07-16-10, 12:52 AM

Probably better to take a free roll on Szavay at a book where you need to complete match for official. If shes feeling bad and getting killed she will definitely quit and If shes feeling better and is competitive you have yourself a regular coin flip wager.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 07:19 AM

Well of course Cuevas loses by 6.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 07:31 AM

I am the cooler right now, take that into account.

CHALLENGER PLAY

BRZEZICKI +125
He draws Gremelmayr who has been a nice little money maker this week in Rimini against inferior competition. Today though, he draws the Argentine who beat him the last time they met on clay a little over a year ago. Both have enjoyed similar results on Challenger clay this season with Gremelmayr the hotter of the two now, but also having played a lot of tennis over the past two weeks. Both have been solid over the course of their two matches. Gremelmayr is also playing doubles at this event, so I'm working on the potential fatigue angle + playing against an opponent familiar with his game. Starts after the first match of the day ends, probably in about 45 minutes or so. So the money should go flush flush in about an hour!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 08:51 AM

JCF-Greul total is already a loser. JCF rolling. No way Greul can do enough to even make it close. Fawk me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 09:31 AM

That was just cruel. Greul got back on serve and only had to hold one more time to get to a tie break and actually turn it into a winner. Instead, broken. Fade me hard.

**beefcake** · 07-16-10, 10:48 AM

Think I may take a shot with chudinelli today.Watched most of the match yesterday and his serve was smokin,he had a warning for abuse,then must have fed off it casue he smoked phau after that.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 11:08 AM

Good luck. I'm in a slump. Just gonna watch my futures piss away today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 11:21 AM

At least Mon-feasel might win a set. Probably only to get beat in 3.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I am the cooler right now, take that into account. CHALLENGER PLAY BRZEZICKI +125

Holy crap. A winner. Gremelmayr retired in the 3rd set. Brzezicki was up 3-1 at point of retirement. Yay!

**shari91** · 07-16-10, 11:31 AM

I think Monfils will pull through for you. And congrats on your winner!!

**Cappinpicks** · 07-16-10, 11:54 AM

Since you're in a slump I'm fading hercog, BOL

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 11:54 AM

CHALLENGER PARLAY: LORENZI + DANIEL [+125]
Lorenzi draws Dodig. I outlined yesterday that Dodig's game doesn't particularly suit clay courts and I still stand with that. He only got in 40% of his 1st serves, but did win 78% off those serves when they got in. 12 double faults on top of the 8 he had in his opener in Rimini. HIs serve has had some issues, but it is potent when it's on and that has been enough so far this tournament. Lorenzi broke away in the 3rd yesterday against Junqueira to win 6-1. His serve has been solid this week and that is always a sticking point with the Italian. When his serve is steady, he is competitive. He is in a good groove right now with this being his 2nd straight week of making a QF at a clay Challenger. Daniel is in Bogota where the only question for him heading into this tournament was health after he retired in a clay Challenger final last week. He's shown no ill effects this week with a pair of wins and a piercing serve. He draws Decoud who struggled to finish a qualifer off in a third set tie break yesterday. Decoud won their last meeting in 2009, but Decoud has not had a good 2010. In fact his two wins here are only the 2nd time this season that he has gained back to back wins in a main draw. Daniel is playing with confidence after his run in Germany last week and he's been a real solid competitor on the Challenger level on dirt this season. If his fitness remains, he should use his serve as a big weapon here to advance.

**Cappinpicks** · 07-16-10, 12:20 PM

Hercog had no chance too bad you're on a slump

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 02:25 PM

Lorenzi won easy, 6-2, 6-2 so it's up to Daniel to finish the parlay. Raining though in Bogota, so no idea when or if it gets played today.

**Goat Milk** · 07-16-10, 02:55 PM

good luck Lorenzi just finished my parlay as well, I tailed you on Hercog but suits me right for betting WTA, fukk WTA women's sports are a joke.

Imagine if I cash my Traver +9000 future to win. risked $10.38 cents hopefully he can win his next match so I can get some guaranteed money from hedging

**beefcake** · 07-16-10, 03:15 PM

still got a donald young and a somdev parlay possibly to do?

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 03:20 PM

According to the Bogota website, Daniel has retired. So rain or no rain, that gets pushed and just grades the Lorenzi win. That just saved my ass from potential disaster. I'll take what I can get at this point.

**beefcake** · 07-16-10, 03:22 PM

That feed i posted has alot of background noise,some dude just farted I think...

And who the hell is playing right now?

What say Ep somdev,young pays +162..

**beefcake** · 07-16-10, 03:23 PM

Looks like ball and klein?

**Goat Milk** · 07-16-10, 09:29 PM

EP do I hedge now with the Traver future I have? Help me out i'm not good at these things when there's multiple people involved. I have the $10.38 on Traver at _9000

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-16-10, 09:41 PM

I think you let it ride here with what you have invested. If it loses, it loses. If he wins then you have the grande hedge opp.

**Goat Milk** · 07-16-10, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I think you let it ride here with what you have invested. If it loses, it loses. If he wins then you have the grande hedge opp.

ok i will take this advice. lets hope for the best.

**FR3SH like UgHH** · 07-16-10, 10:42 PM

how do u guys feel about soderling and ferrer tomorrow?

**rumple** · 07-16-10, 11:31 PM

Should be a good match.

**beefcake** · 07-17-10, 07:58 AM

in the 3rd a titantic battle

**JNic** · 07-17-10, 08:04 AM

this is soderling's title, his depth of shot was absolutely pinpoint in the 2nd set. he's unbeatable at the moment imo

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 07-17-10, 08:56 AM

EP, u are a great capper. hot streaks go cold cold streaks go cold. dont worry buddy

with you on monfils

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-17-10, 10:31 AM

CHALLENGER PLAY

BRZEZICKI -125
He draws Lorenzi in Rimini in one of the semifinals. The Argentine may be feeling fortunate to be here after struggling through his match with Gremelmayr yesterday. He managed to even it at one set each after being pounded 6-1 in the 1st set. Brezezicki took a 3-1 lead in the 3rd when Gremelmayr retired. Lorenzi had no issues with Dodiq as he served decently and took advantage of a lack of pop on Dodig's serve to beat him easily, 6-2, 6-2. Both guys have played fairly evenly this week and have had modest Challenger success on clay this season with Lorenzi sporting a slightly better record at 16-8 on Challenger dirt to 18-10 for the Argentine. Where Brzezicki has an advantage is from having played Lorenzi five times and beaten him all five times in their careers. It's been three years since their last meeting, but from 2006-2007 - they played on clay four of the five times with Brzezicki ranked lower all but one time and coming away victorious. Same situation presents itself here. Also keep in mind that Brzezicki made the finals of this tournament last year, losing to Thomaz Bellucci. Scheduled to start at Noon ET. Flushy flushy!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-17-10, 12:15 PM

Slump on.

**JNic** · 07-17-10, 12:53 PM

any play on young/devvarman? i see both really need this win to get in top 100 and further reach goal of getting in us open

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-17-10, 01:38 PM

I think it's as advertised, a toss-up. Money has come in on Young. Young has had the easier time at this tournament whereas Devvarman has gone to 3 sets in each match I think. Only thing I don't like about DY is that he's made it as far as the semis in 5 Challengers this year and only advanced to one final. My orignal thought was Young, so you might want to take Devvarman with my track record this week.

Mon-feasel is going to make himself work if he's going to win as he's about to drop the 2nd set.

**fsfalcons** · 07-17-10, 01:54 PM

I just pooed my pants