EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 11:58 PM

I missed the start to Woz-Azarenka. Apparently helpful since Woz is kicking her ass. Although Vika is coming back now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-01-10, 12:10 AM

Doing this one to try and make some major scratch

Schiavone 2-1 [+525]
Dementieva 2-1 [+320]

Either one hits and it's raining coins.

**birdmanweezy** · 10-01-10, 12:37 AM

good call on the over i was on it as well...was sweating there for a few minutes was a big play for good luck rest of night im taking berdych and over in baggy small

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-01-10, 07:23 AM

Over hit easy in the Youzhny-Baggy match. Baggy faded big in the 3rd.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-01-10, 09:11 AM

CHALLENGER PLAY: BAGNIS [-110]
It's youth vs. the vet with Bagnis at 20 years of age against Victor Estrella who is 31. Estrella has beaten the more well-known opponents in Acasuso and Capdeville, but neither of them rates much to me. Acasuso was back after a lengthy injury layoff and Capdeville might has well add the R into his name with the way he's played of late. Bagnis to me showed some growth in defeating an opponent in Round 1 who beat him at a tournament last week and then dispatching Decoud. Bagnis has a little more on his serve, but needs to improve his 1st serve percentage to make that more effective. Bagnis is the talent here and if he's going to improve in the future to being a contender at least at this level, he needs to beat guys like this.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-01-10, 11:08 AM

Money now all on Estrella. He's -155, Bagnis at +115. Taking Bagnis at +115 and starting to pile the dirt on top of myself.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-01-10, 02:23 PM

Dementieva tonight. She has defied logic all tournament, why stop now?

**noober** · 10-01-10, 03:14 PM

Wozniacki is way too consistent for Elena imo.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-01-10, 03:35 PM

Of course she is, but Woz showed a few chinks in the armor against Azarenka and Dementieva nearly beat her at New Haven. Like I said, Dementieva realistically should have lost at least two matches this week with how weak she played, but now she's here. Come on, ride the crazy train!

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-01-10, 10:35 PM

Off Dementieva due to further study and circumstances. Instead ...

WOZNIACKI-DEMENTIEVA OVER 21.5 [-112]
With Dementieva, breaks will be there. Wozniacki showed some fragility against Azarenka as well. Expecting a nice little rollercoaster brain f-er.

**Mikail** · 10-01-10, 11:05 PM

Good luck EP ! On the over 21.5 and put a little on Dementieve ML as well.

**Stacocakes** · 10-02-10, 09:25 AM

Nice hit on the over in the Dementieva/Wozniacki match

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-03-10, 01:25 AM

MAD MATH FORMULA SUNDAY

The trick here is to correctly predict the # of sets and take both players to win in the correct # of sets for a tidy profit. Trying it in Bangkok.

Nieminen 2-1 [+325]
Garcia-Lopez 2-1 [+400]

Normal betting size as always.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-03-10, 10:27 AM

GGL in 3. Snagged the bigger payout. Mad Math!

**shantymoon** · 10-03-10, 04:27 PM

do u like simone tomorrow over querrey?
querrey starts slow and simone already won a tourney after us open

**Jrod124** · 10-03-10, 06:47 PM

excellent play on GGL yesterday sir

**beefcake** · 10-03-10, 08:25 PM

nice to see that your getting hot again EP!

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-03-10, 09:42 PM

CHERRY BUSTER FOR THE WEEK

SCHWANK +150
Schwank draws Gimeno-Traver who most will probably back, but at -170 ... no thanks. Schwank played okay in his Davis Cup match against Simon on an indoor surface, while GT works back from a clay tournament in late September. Surface switch could help Schwank get a better start, but we shall see.

**Shifty107** · 10-03-10, 10:28 PM

Any thoughts on Lopes over Del Potro EP. I think Juan is still settling back in and Lopez usually plays him well. At $2.55 I cant stop myself unless someone can give me some groundbreaking info.

And Also liking Fish over Tipsarevic.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-03-10, 11:28 PM

DEL POTRO -175
Purely a gut play here. DelPo did show good pop even in losing to Rochus last week and you'd have expected what happened with him losing after the long layoff. I think this match sets up for him potentially to score his first win since early in the year. Lopez has been off since the US Open, so he'll likely be rustier than DelPo and I think DelPo will be keen to get back on the winning track. Price if iffy now at -175 if you can stomach it, but I think DelPo is going to win tonight. This is pretty much the thresh hold of prices I am willing to pay on a single match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-03-10, 11:30 PM

That's probably it for me to start this week off. Don't want to go too heavy, just feeling things out for now. Will be a tough week with most of the matches late at night or over night.

**jiyebhutto** · 10-04-10, 12:24 AM

risky play on delpotro but ill tail

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-04-10, 12:38 AM

Everything is risky.

Schwank didn't play bad, but lost the breaks 6-4, 6-4.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-04-10, 01:38 AM

Looks like I'm starting in retard mode this week. Lopez hasn't exactly dominated, but DelPo's serve isn't doing much today so far. Way too many break opps. Will go to sleep full expecting him to have lost in straights. Maybe he'll wake up in the 2nd, but ...

Especially awesome since I was going to take the under originally and then waffled. Waffling = horrible decision 100% of the time every time.

**mav924** · 10-04-10, 02:57 AM

Good luck today EaglesPhan

**Tsonga** · 10-04-10, 06:00 AM

Wow, I would have taken the over in the Lopez/delpo match and expected delpo to show up.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-04-10, 08:13 AM

I figured it was going to be one sided, but obviously thought it was gong to be Del Potro. I had him figured like a horse back from a long layoff. First-up disappointing, but expected to improve next time out. And of course losing that one I backed off my other pick - Kohlschreiber who obviously won. Superb.

Just because I like to lose early in the week ...

DULKO-KIRLENKO OVER 20.5 [+115]

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 10-04-10, 09:00 AM

hahaha jankovic lost to an 18 year old serbian.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-04-10, 09:38 AM

Hey hey! A winner in the making so long as these two finish it off as they go to a 3rd set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-04-10, 09:54 AM

CHALLENGER PARLAY: OUANNA + DELGADO [+150]
Ouanna draws Karol Beck on an indoor hard court. Beck has lost six straight since a shoulder injury in July. Ouanna has been hit & miss as is the nature of the big server. He did beat Beck back in January on this surface in 3 sets. If his serve is stout, he can win here. In all honesty, Delgado has not been in great form as he draws His Serbian opponent has much better form of late, but a boat load of cash came in on Delgado to run him from -120 to -170. At a Challenger event, that's significant cash being spent and usually points to a heavy lean due to injury or fix-o-rama. So, I shall try it.

**Stacocakes** · 10-04-10, 11:13 AM

Horrible again from Del Potro. Maybe he decided to come back to early? I think alot of people lost money on him because his line started around -140 and was steamed up to -180 or so before it started.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-04-10, 11:17 AM

Apparently I have been hoodwinked by the Delgado pick. Ouanna was sucking too, so all in all a shit day. Hard to tell with DelPo, I just expected a lot better. You'd think with as bad as his serve was that maybe the wrist is still bothering him.

**Brian891** · 10-04-10, 01:17 PM

EP, have a question im sure has been answered before, but what is a good us book for challenger? Bookmaker doesnt offer odds. Thanks for all your excellent insights.

**ji03** · 10-04-10, 02:22 PM

Yeah it looks like Del Po needs some more time to round back into form.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-04-10, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by Brian891

EP, have a question im sure has been answered before, but what is a good us book for challenger? Bookmaker doesnt offer odds. Thanks for all your excellent insights.

5Dimes is one of the few that offers Challengers.