EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-10, 09:21 AM

Throwing a little on the de Bakker-Brands Over at 22.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-10, 11:36 AM

Over is

so long as they finish out the match. With Brands, that isn't a given.

**JNic** · 09-29-10, 12:07 PM

nice hit with the over, brands might actually win. id be quite surprised

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-10, 12:28 PM

He did win. I actually toyed with taking him just because I think de Bakker might be spent after a long season, but Brands usually screws me when I take him as a side.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-10, 04:30 PM

Thought tracking again for later when I finalize picks, so pay little attention.

Parlay Material
Wozniacki, Troicki
Doubles: Srebotnik-Peschke & Pennetta-Dulko (Peer-Peng not usual partners)

Totals
Soderling/Roger-Vasselin o19.5
Coco-Azarenka o19
Russianettes [Vera/Elena] o21.5

**spargament** · 09-29-10, 05:13 PM

Yeah Wozniacki is the closest thing there is in the WTA to a 'lock' especially with how shes been playing lately. Parlay fodder to the extreme

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-10, 08:24 PM

WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOUBLES PARLAY

SREBOTNIK/PESCHKE + PENNETTA/DULKO [-101]
These are two of the in-form doubles pairings through the latter portions of the hard court season this summer. Srebotnik & Peschke made the finals of two of their last three tournaments and made the Round of 16 at the US Open. Pennetta & Dulko won the doubles title in Montreal over Srebotnik-Peschke and made the quarters at the US Open. Srebotnik-Peschke face Benesova-Strycova. They won't be pushovers, but Srebotnik-Peschke looked real good in their opener against a solid team of Kirilenko-Petrova. Benesova-Strycova were pushed to the super breaker and won it 11-9. They did not serve well and that could be their undoing today. Pennetta-Dulko draw the forced pairing of Peer-Peng. Both are adequate doubles players, but this is their first tournament together this season and that's not a good thing against one of the best doubles duos in WTA right now.

**necro** · 09-29-10, 08:30 PM

srebtonik is good in dobles, but she sux in single game

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-10, 08:49 PM

Probably find rain delays again in Tokyo some today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-10, 10:05 PM

Doubles parlay is gonna crap out early. Looks like Srebotnik & Peschke have plans to be somewhere else.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-10, 10:07 PM

DEMENTIEVA-ZVONAREVA OVER 21.5 [-110]
Going with the usual play when two Russians meet and that is to side with the over. Not full proof, but often the matches are rollercoasters of momentum. All the career meetings between these two have hit for at least 22 games, even in two sets. That's pretty much the reasoning.

**ha1ogen** · 09-29-10, 10:14 PM

youre on a bit of a roll ep, keep it up

**Stacocakes** · 09-29-10, 11:31 PM

Eagles you know I am following you on the russian-russian match tonight going over. Let's hit this

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 09-29-10, 11:35 PM

Is Russian WTA like Russian ATP in that every match goes three sets?

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 12:06 AM

I think Russian WTA, 3 sets is much more prevalent than the men. Will add that it seems to only apply to the top Russian chicks, not just any Russian vs. Russian. Only one that has been immune to the trend that I remember of late was Kirilenko-Safina and their head-2-head showed you that too.

**Brian891** · 09-30-10, 02:44 AM

Boy verdasco is garbage today. i would pick today to watch him. awful.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 07:23 AM

Well Vera sucked. 7-5 in the 1st set, just needed 6-4 in the 2nd and she bows out 6-2. Oh well, shitty night/morning.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 08:33 AM

KUKUSHKIN +125
Taking a shot here. Kukushkin is not a house hold name as he has played more on the Challenger level in 2010, but his results have been solid and his recent run of form on this indoor surface shows his potential. He had to work hard to get past DeHeart in the opener, but that could help him today in his battle with Rochus. Rochus of course KO'ed Del Potro, so that's a little tough to judge. At his best, Rochus certainly has proven a tough customer on hard court surfaces. Still, when do you know if you're going to get his best? Kukushkin is signed up for qualis in Beijing next week, but unlike others who might consider a potential tank job, he has points he can earn right here and now in this tournament. A chance to play Nadal in the next round could be a nice incentive too, even though it means certain death.

**shari91** · 09-30-10, 08:44 AM

EP, what am I going to do with this Dementieva biatch? A part of me feels like I need to keep fading her and just increase my units until she inevitably busts out but it's really starting to feel like her and I have some sort of personal vendetta going on against each other.

So frustrating.

And then of course I take the Nadal under but don't post it because my totals hit rate obviously sucks and he somehow pulls it out of his butt when I thought it was heading to a 7-5 2nd set. It's all doing my head in.

**nathan.thomasson** · 09-30-10, 09:20 AM

GL with your KUKUSHKIN play.

I've got him to win the first set which is looking pretty good at the moment, up 4-1.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 09:24 AM

Dementieva might be the ladies version of our putz Jeremy Chardy. So difficult to predict which way she's gonna go from match-to-match. Her serving issues would seem to dictate going against her when she plays solid players like Vera, but Vera plays a horrible match and Dementieva is left to move on rather easily in the 2nd set. And in looking at her price against Schiavone, how are you going to tell yourself Dementieva is worth -240 against a player who has beaten her multiple times in their careers on this surface? Might mean she needs to go on your no-fly list although you'll hate yourself if she loses as a big favorite ... but it might save money in the long run.

I'd just keep posting picks if you think it's worthy info for people .... we all post plenty of losers [see picks above].

**shari91** · 09-30-10, 09:34 AM

Yeah, I think you're right. I'll just keep doubling and chasing her throughout this tournament like I did in the US Open and then I'm done with this chick. She keeps benefiting from people playing like total crap against her and I'm watching these stupid matches - her opponents are screwing up more than she's doing anything to win. Absolutely unreal.

Definitely after this week I'm done betting on any match that concerns this psycho. So not worth it anymore.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 10:32 AM

About to find out if Kukushkin wants to be here or is thinking Beijing as he is choking away the 2nd set late. Fought this far, so hopefully he can turn it back around in the 3rd.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 11:15 AM

Kuku!

**Regul8er** · 09-30-10, 11:40 AM

YA Baby.....I was with you on Kuku. First tennis wager since US Open.

**Regul8er** · 09-30-10, 11:41 AM

Actually, I bet against Chardy the week after US Open I believe.......needless to say a winner.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 02:33 PM

Tonight/Friday offers some fun matches, notes below for later before finalizing picks.

Youzhny-Baghdatis OVER 23
Raonic +185
Berdych -125
Azarenka +3.5
Schiavone +230

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 09:42 PM

THURSDAY NIGHT TOTAL: RAONIC-ANDREEV OVER 22 [-122]
The inexperience of Raonic and some other factors kept me from pulling the trigger on the Canadian outright. His big serve suits this surface, but this tournament alone has pretty much been the basis for his experience on an indoor hard surface. Andreev does not have a stellar track record on this surface, but I think if he can find his serve early, this is going to be a tight match + the Canadian's thumping serve could lead to either two tight sets or the potential of three.

**birdmanweezy** · 09-30-10, 09:52 PM

like raonic

**spargament** · 09-30-10, 09:57 PM

I wonder how much the davydenko match took out of andreev

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 10:16 PM

No more than the Stakhovsky match took something out of Raonic. Both guys grinded out tought 3 setters, there's no extra help to either IMO.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 10:52 PM

CINDERELLA PLAY

AZARENKA +3.5 [-114]
When the clock strikes Midnight in my central time zone, Azarenka gets it on with Wozniacki. I maintain that Azarenka is on a mission in this tournament to save face after her face plant at the US Open. Both are playing well. If this goes three, I think Azarenka covers the spread and she certainly could win straight up if her serve is stout today.

**StillSmokin** · 09-30-10, 11:00 PM

I also think Schiavone can win tonight but I'm not sure how confident I am in that play. I can get Schiavone +4 EV which should be a lock... I love the the odds on the ML but I want as close to a sure winner as I can get. Whats the best play?

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-30-10, 11:44 PM

Take the handicap if you want the better chance.

**Mikail** · 09-30-10, 11:53 PM

I like Schiavone but a few things have me worried like the marathon match last night and her trouble on serve.