Roland Garros '14 - Bets & Preview

JustSomeCash · 05-21-14, 04:40 AM

ATP French Open contenders - Is Nadal's clay crown slipping?

By Dan Weston

With the clay season in full swing, and the French Open about to start, this article assesses how the main ATP contenders have fared so far on clay in 2014, and looks at the potential decline in the reign of the King of Clay.

There have been nine clay tournaments this season on the ATP so far, with a further two being played this week in Oeiras (Portugal) and Munich (Germany). This has given most players a chance to get some reasonable game-time under their belt on clay, with the Madrid and Rome Masters (scheduled in the next fortnight) the final chance for most of the top players to finalise their preparations for the French Open, which starts on the 25th May.

So far this season the following players have won clay court tournaments:-
Fabio Fognini (Vina Del Mar)
David Ferrer (Buenos Aires)
Rafael Nadal (Rio De Janeiro)
Federico Delbonis (Sao Paulo)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (Casablanca)
Fernando Verdasco (Houston)
Stanislas Wawrinka (Monte Carlo)
Kei Nishikori (Barcelona)
Grigor Dimitrov (Bucharest)

Quite surprisingly, not one player has won more than one tournament on the surface, which shows that there are many players currently capable of playing at a high level. On that basis, this year’s French Open has the potential to be one of the most open in recent memory.

This is illustrated by the current betting in the market, with six players currently priced under 50.00:-
Rafael Nadal 2.50
Novak Djokovic 2.45
Stanislas Wawrinka 8.08
Roger Federer 14.27
David Ferrer 28.08
Andy Murray 32.30

Interestingly, Nadal, at the time of the main French Open preview, was available much shorter – at 1.617. The drift in Rafa’s odds has decreased his implied odds of winning the event by a huge 17.98% since the original preview was written. Conversely, Wawrinka was available at 31.37, and following his Monte Carlo Masters success, his implied chances have improved by 9.19%.
Prior to the Nadal’s loss to countryman David Ferrer in Monte Carlo, he was available at 1.91, and then he subsequently drifted to 2.20 before his match in Barcelona against Nicolas Almagro. A first defeat to another countryman has led to a slight further drift to current prices. These prices look to offer some value on the Spaniard solely based on his record at Roland Garros, which stands at an incredible 59-1 from 2005 to the time of writing.

Therefore, at this point, it’s worth trying to make an assessment as to whether this price movement on Nadal is a kneejerk reaction to several defeats against players he has a very strong historical head to head record against, or whether there is statistical reasoning behind it.

The following table compares the top five market contenders 2013 and 2014 clay court stats.

Nadal	1	38-2	87.3	38.5	125.8	9-2	82.5	39.1	121.6	-4.2
Djokovic	2	12-3	83.1	34.3	117.4	3-1	86.5	42.9	129.4	12
Wawrinka	3	24-7	85.5	27.5	113	4-0	95.2	29.3	124.5	11.5
Federer	4	12-5	84.3	28	112.3	4-1	89.3	28.3	117.6	5.3
Ferrer	5	21-6	77.9	39.5	117.4	11-3	78.1	37	115.1	-2.3

The above table clearly shows that in his eleven matches on clay so far this season, Nadal has shown a statistical decline with his overall combined hold/break percentage dropping from 125.8 to 121.6.

Quite clearly, the main issue for the Spaniard is his serve. Nadal’s clayservice hold percentage has dropped from 87.3% in 2013 to 82.5% in 2014, with his return stats actually slightly increasing, breaking opponents 38.5% in 2013 to 39.1% in 2014. This service hold drop is also 4.0% below his current 3 year clay service hold, which currently stands at 86.5%.
Certainly these stats indicate that some sort of price drift is reasonable for Nadal. However, it’s important to state that his 2014 combined score of 121.6 is still 4.2% better than Djokovic and Ferrer’s 2013 combined percentage – both were at 117.4 – so there can be no doubt that despite this statistical decline, on this basis, Nadal still currently deserves to be favourite for the French Open.
A previous article focused on the decline of the ATP top ten, with Nadal highlighted as a player in decline based on the stats in that article. The following table shows the updated 2014 percentages for the top 5 in the French Open market, and allows us to see if this decline across all surfaces has continued for the world number one.

Nadal	1	80-7	88	34	122	20-5	84.8	32.6	117.4	-4.6
Djokovic	2	67-9	87.9	33.2	121.1	19-3	90.5	31.5	122	0.9
Wawrinka	3	52-21	85.1	24.4	109.5	14-2	89.1	25.3	114.4	4.9
Federer	4	48-18	86.9	25.9	112.8	22-4	89.8	29.6	119.4	6.6
Ferrer	5	58-24	78.2	33.1	111.3	21-7	79.4	37.7	117.1	5.8

The combined percentages in the above table show that Nadal is the only player in the top 5 to show a decrease from 2013 to 2014, and his decline of 4.6% is very similar to his overall clay court decline of 4.2%.
Interestingly, the other four members have shown an increase, none more so than Roger Federer. The Swiss legend has managed to increase his all-surface combined percentage from 112.8 in 2013 to 119.4 in 2014. This ranks him second in the 2014 combined percentages, behind Novak Djokovic. Nadal trails in third, marginally above compatriot, David Ferrer.
There is no doubt that 2014 statistics point to Nadal’s level declining. This could be due to injury – particularly his knee – or perhaps nine unbroken years in the top 5 taking its toll on him. Another possible explanation is the increased level of his competitors, as evidenced in the second table above. Certainly Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka have dramatically improved their results in 2014 after appointing new coaches, Stefan Edberg and Magnus Norman, respectively.
All the evidence points to a highly competitive French Open with the top 5 all having the potential to compete at a high level, and on any given day, beat each other.

JustSomeCash · 05-21-14, 04:42 AM

WTA French Open - Can Williams win at Roland Garros

By Dan Weston

With a number of WTA players currently priced below 50.000, the women’s French Open promises to be more open than the ATP. This preview looks at where the value may be and focuses on the main contenders to help bettors pick a WTA winner.

WTA French Open winner not a formality

As we mentioned in the Australian Open preview, is vital that bettors treat the WTA version (best of three sets) as a completely different betting proposition to the ATP version (best of five sets). Whilst the men’s competition is a supreme test of fitness, the women’s tournament is no different in match duration to normal events.
Historical trends support the assertion that the event will be quite open with Serena Williams winning the event just once (beating Maria Sharapova in last year’s final). Furthermore, 12 of the 20 finalists of the last ten years were seeded outside the top five and four finalists (including 2010 winner Francesca Schiavone) were seeded outside the top ten.

Even with a historically mediocre (for her) 30-7 tournament record, Williams is currently available as the 2.710* favourite, and based on her overall clay stats in the table below, this would appear very reasonable. She did not participate in 2011, but lost in the first round to Virginie Razzano, priced 1.010, in 2012, and Sam Stosur (priced 1.486) in the quarter-finals in 2010. A further worry for Williams backers would be her recent defeat to Ana Ivanovic in the Australian Open andthe fact that she has played just one clay match this season so far – a straight sets defeat priced 1.030 to Jana Cepelova in Charleston.

The table below illustrates the incredible statistical dominance of Williams on clay, and covers all players currently priced under 100.00 in the outright markets.

S. Williams	1	23-1	82.6	59.2	141.8
Li Na	2	5-4	62.9	44.4	107.3
Radwanska	3	6-4	63.2	45.7	108.9
Azarenka	4	10-3	66.4	50.8	117.2
Halep	5	16-6	68.7	51.4	120.1
Kvitova	6	6-5	58.8	39.9	98.7
Jankovic	7	20-8	71.5	43.2	114.7
Kerber	8	8-4	70.3	37.7	108.0
Sharapova	9	22-2	74.8	45.5	120.3
Cibulkova	10	4-5	60.0	43.3	103.3
Errani	11	20-7	61.2	49.4	110.6
Ivanovic	12	13-5	70.3	42.5	112.8
Pennetta	13	8-8	61.8	42.0	103.8
Stephens	17	7-6	67.4	34.1	101.5
Bouchard	18	9-4	70.6	41.9	112.5
Stosur	19	6-6	68.2	38.5	106.7
Petkovic	28	10-4	69.5	43.1	112.6
Kuznetsova	29	14-5	71.3	39.4	110.7
Muguruza	37	5-4	64.7	34.6	99.3

Williams’ combined hold/break stats are over 21% bigger than her nearest competitor – Maria Sharapova. Clearly given full fitness and motivation, she will definitely be the player to beat.
Victoria Azarenka - who has withdrawn due to injury -, Maria Sharapova 7.410* and Na Li 7.410* are the three players closest to Williams in the current markets and based on last year’s results and stats, Sharapova looks to be the player that can push the world number one the closest here. However, with Williams winning her last fourteen head to head matches, Sharapova will have to overcome significant mental scars to get past her.

Li & Radwanska

Australian Open winner Na Li will be able to take confidence into Roland Garros but played just four clay court tournaments in 2013. In those she lost as strong favourite three times, to Madison Keys (1.04), Jelena Jankovic (1.479) and Bethanie Mattek-Sands (1.262). Having played just nine matches on clay in 2013, her sample is fairly small so going back to 2012 is useful. Since 2012 she won 16 and lost eight on clay, holding 71.7% and breaking 41.8%, thus generating a combined percentage of 113.5. This would still put her 6th in the top 10 on clay and it will be difficult for her to consolidate her Australian Open title when considering that.
As mentioned in our Australian Open preview, Agnieszka Radwanska – fifth favourite at 31.060 – has just one Grand Slam final in her career (a loss to Serena Williams in Wimbledon 2012), and as on hard court, the stats show her level to be below the other members of the top five. Only Petra Kvitova, Na Li Angelique Kerber and Dominika Cibulkovahad worse clay court stats than the Pole in 2013. Against top ten opponents on clay, she is a very poor 3-9, with victories over Ivanovic, Schiavone and Li (two as favourite).
There are five further players priced below 50.00 in the outright markets, and it’s worth focusing some attention on those as contenders.

Also worth considering

Simona Halep is the fifth favourite currently – 13.020* – and the stats support her claims. She had some impressive victories on clay last season, winning the events at Nurnburg and Budapest, and getting to the semi-finals of the Rome Premier tournament. However, her stats may be a little flattered by some dominant wins over poor opponents in low-level events, and with a 9-17 career record against top ten opponents, doubts persist about her ability to compete with the best.
Sloane Stephens is available at 41.080* but the table above indicates that
with Stephens’ combined hold/break percentage being very mediocre at 101.5, she will find it tough against top-level opponents. With Stephens still young, she has plenty of time to improve, but based on current stats it’s hard to make a case for her.
Both Sara Errani and Petra Kvitova are currently priced at 37.070* but they could not be further apart in their overall style –Errani has a weak serve but a superb return game, whereas Kvitova is the complete opposite. We mentioned in the Australian Open preview that Kvitova’s tendency to play three set matches hinders her in Grand Slam events as the accumulated fatigue this generates will mean she is less fresh than her opponents. Furthermore, this puts her at risk of elimination in what is effectively a ‘one-set shootout’ more than fellow top 10 players, as witnessed by her shock defeat by Luksika Kumkhum in the Australian Open.
Errani is also much more comfortable on her favoured clay surface, but unlike Kvitova, perhaps lacks the mental strength to beat higher ranked players. The Italian is a horrific 8-42 against top 10 players in her career.

Best of the rest

Angelique Kerber 51.090*, Ana Ivanovic 31.060*, Eugenie Bouchard 46.090*).Andrea Petkovic (71.130)*, Svetlana Kuznetsova (98.620*) and Jelena Jankovic (46.090*) are six players priced between 50.00 and 100.00 in the outright markets with a combined hold/break percentage of 108 or more. With historical trends supporting a lower ranked player making the final, these players cannot be ruled out.
The stats in the table above shows that Jankovic in particular is a threat, and with a 29-11 record in the event, as well as three previous semi-finals, her ability on clay is a given. It can be argued that clay is Ivanovic’s best surface, and she too can have a good run here.
Finally Eugenie Bouchard has progressed hugely since last season and cannot be written off by any means. When the tournament starts, she will be just 20-years-old and it’s perhaps this inexperience that will hamper her, but she is without doubt a player of high ability and potential and it will be interesting to see how she progresses.

JustSomeCash · 05-21-14, 06:54 AM

Favourites’ performances in latter stages of Slams

With the Australian Open in full swing and the second week approaching, we have assessed the record of favourites in the latter stages of Grand Slams, with a view to see if there is a potential betting edge.

Previous articles have mentioned the accumulated fatigue that it is vital for ATP players to avoid in the five-set format, and it is also my belief that one of the main areas where top players thrive over their lower-ranked competition is their superior level of fitness. This is even more pertinent in the current Australian Open, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees due to a general heat wave across Southern Australia..

Therefore, logic should dictate that the ‘better’ player – the market favourite – will have a strong record in the latter stages of Grand Slams. For clarity, we considered this to be the 4th round – round of 16 – or later in the events, and the sample we used was all Grand Slams between 2010-2013. All prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.

However, would the market take this into account enough, or even too much? We decided to find out…

Between 2010 and 2013 there were 16 Grand Slam events and each event had 15 matches from the round of 16 onwards, so a possible sample of 240 matches was obtained. This was reduced by three matches – two were walkovers (Fognini vs Djokovic in the French Open in 2011, and Fish vs Federer in the US Open in 2012) and in the French Open in 2010, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Mikhail Youzhny were equal favourites at 1.98, so this match was discounted.

Australian Open	543	60	9.05
French Open	589	58	10.16
Wimbledon	207	60	3.45
US Open	123	59	2.08
Overall	1462	237	6.17

We can see from the above table that all events showed a positive return backing favourites to a level £100 stake from the 4th round of a Grand Slam onwards – indeed, the first two Grand Slams of the season, the Australian and the French Opens, had stellar returns of over 9%. Overall, the return was 6.17% across all events from 237 matches – very solid figures indeed.

£100 stake backing favourite

<1.20	159	93	1.71
1.20-1.49	748	86	8.7
1.50-1.99	555	60	9.25
1.20-1.99	1303	146	8.92

The second table shows the profit generated from the same sample filtered by price range.
We can see that the returns were low when the favourite’s starting price was below 1.20 – just a 1.71% return on investment. It’s not entirely a surprise though, because with prices so low there clearly isn’t as much scope for high percentage returns, and also the market is probably fairly efficient in this price range.

However, returns were superb when the favourite was priced over 1.20 – with both separate price ranges returning 8.70% and 9.25% respectively. Returns of £1303 from 146 matches (8.92%) when the price ranges were combined is a very strong return on investment.

It was also interesting to note that just 41 favourites from the 237 matches lost. This gave favourites a win rate of 82.7%, which is higher than the win percentage for favourites in any individual tournament in the ATP calendar, so this also supports the fact that favourites dominate these latter stages of Grand Slams.

The final area to assess is looking at the four players featured as favourite more often than others – the four players considered the elite for a number of years – Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal – June 10th 2013 was the last time these four players were all in the top 4 of the ATP rankings.

Djokovic	48	41	85.42	339	7.06
Federer	34	25	73.53	-420	-12.35
Murray	32	30	93.75	560	17.5
Nadal	40	38	95	644	16.1

This table illustrates the difference between the current top three players in the world, Djokovic, Murray and Nadal, and Federer.
Federer’s results were very poor in all areas. His win percentage in the latter stages of Grand Slams between 2010 and 2013 was just over 9% below the overall sample average, and he was the only player out of these four players to have a negative return – losing £420 from his 34 matches for a return on investment of -12.35%. Whilst there is little doubt he is in some decline, these figures show he has been over-rated by the market in 5-set matches for a long time.

Djokovic, Murray and Nadal had an above-average win percentage and very strong returns, particularly Murray and Nadal. With these three players, as mentioned above, arguably the top three players in the world, it can be seen that these elite players have a huge recent edge in the late stages of Grand Slam events and it would require very strong evidence to want to oppose Djokovic, Murray and Nadal in the latter stages of Grand Slams.

Bettors should consider these angles when betting on the second week of the Australian Open, and consider the 5-set format of men’s Grand Slams make this a totally different betting proposition to normal 3-set ATP events.

JustSomeCash · 05-21-14, 06:59 AM

How clay courts affect players at the French Open

One player has dominated the French Open like no other: Rafael Nadal. But why does the red clay favour the Spaniard so strongly? Find out what affect surface type has on the top 20 ATP players and how this knowledge can help your tennis betting?

The torn-up nature of the surface means that the clay particles generate a lot more friction when balls bounce off the ground – far more than grass or hard courts.

Clay court science

The resistance generated when the ball collides with the clay slows down the bottom of the ball, but doesn’t affect the velocity of the top of it, which continues travelling at the same speed. The disparity between the consistent speed (at the top of the ball) and the deceleration (on the bottom of the ball) forces a more vertical impact with the floor.
The increased vertical angle then causes a higher bounce, which coupled with an overall decrease in speed, ensures that it’s harder to hit a winner and easier to return shots. While this provides a distinct benefit for anyone returning serve, it also means the surface is ideal for consistent, powerful baseline players – like Rafael Nadal.
Taking a note of a player’s style is particularly important for tennis betting for the French Open and other clay tournaments, as the competition favours baseline players over attackers (Federer) and players who built their ranking on big serves (plenty of other players in the top 20).

Clay court aces: few and far between

One of the biggest statistics supporting the science behind the quirks of clay courts is ace percentages. Throughout the careers of all of the top 20 ATP players, every one has hit noticeably fewer aces on clay than on hard courts. On average, the ATP top 20 has hit 43.5% fewer aces on clay than on hard courts.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 279.850* is the biggest victim of the curse of clay, hitting 79.5% fewer aces over his career on the crushed brick than on hard courts. The Frenchman averages just 7.3 ace serves out of 100, compared with 13.1 on hard.
Milos Raonic has recorded the highest career ace percentage on the surface (12.9 per 100 serves), which is still a massive 52.7% drop on his hard court performances.

Service stopper

Nineteen of the 20 top ATP players win fewer points on their first serves on clay than on hard courts. While this is partially accounted for by a reduction in aces, the fact that clay courts gives receivers a better opportunity to return the ball is also vital.
Only Juan Monaco manages to win more points on his first serve on clay – 0.9% more – than on hard courts. He also wins more points on clay on his second serve – 3.2%. Such tidbits are useful for tennis betting, as not many people would consider anyone to win more points on their serve on clay than on a hard court. This fact suggests that Monaco could easily be underrated on the surface.

Returners’ revenge

Every player in the ATP top 20 has an improved “return points won” percentage on clay. While the improvement can be as little as 0.8% (Janko Tipsarevic), it’s also the statistic that shows Nadal’s dominance. With a 14.3% increase in return points won on clay; the Spaniard wins an incredible 46.9% of points served at him.

Spanish supremacy

All three Spanish men inside the top 20 boast exceptional clay-court performance. Nadal and David Ferrerwin more return points on clay than any other player, winning 46.9% and 44.2% respectively (Djokovic is at 43.9%).

This is almost certainly helped by the fact that clay is the primary surface in Spain, largely because of the hot, dry climate. This could be why Andy Murray, who spent a lot of his youth training in Spain, has the fifth highest return point percentage of the top 20 at 43.6%.
In terms of the performance difference between clay and hard courts, Nadal and fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro top the table, successfully returning on 14.3% and 10.7% more points on clay than hard courts.
It could also be argued that Nicolas Almagro is the most surface-agnostic of the top 20 players, hitting just 18.9% fewer aces on the surface (the second smallest drop), and winning just 0.5% fewer points on his first serve and 0.4% on his second – the smallest differences of any player.

Other clay outliers

Investigating the performance of the 20 top ATP players also revealed some other interesting facts about players not usually associated with their clay-court performances:
Kei Nishikori: Nishikori actually wins the third-highest percentage of return points of any of the top 20 players at 43.9%. Only Nadal and Ferrer do better. Despite this success, he also has the lowest ace rate – the Japanese star achieves just 2.5 aces per 100 serves.
Stanislas Wawrinka: The Swiss ace doesn’t have much luck winning his first serve on clay – he wins 21.8% fewer points on his first serve on the surface.
Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic’s return point performance is pretty much constant between the clay and hard courts – he only wins 0.8% more return points on clay, the lowest of any of the ATP 20.
Almost no other sports have the variety that tennis’ different court surfaces bring, nor witness as profound an effect. Therefore for any serious tennis bettor, it is vital to treat the clay, hard and grass courts as separate entities, each with its unique quirks that should be built into betting analysis.

Chaz22 · 05-21-14, 07:54 AM

Who is Dan Weston? u?

if not, then why do we need this ? where is your input? picks?

or you will start kickin' when main tour will begin?

frugalgambler · 05-21-14, 08:20 AM

Some decent reading, although a bit too verbose. Something to keep in mind when ROI is being discussed: the juice they used in those calculations was 2%, not 10% used at the normal books. I'd love to bet at 1.98/1.98 odds.

ohdecas · 05-21-14, 08:50 AM

Nice reading, thank you

JustSomeCash · 05-21-14, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by Chaz22

Who is Dan Weston? u?

if not, then why do we need this ? where is your input? picks?

or you will start kickin' when main tour will begin?

No, it's not me, as I wrote before,"

add articles,news and previews from around the web that can be very helpful."

"why do we need this ?" - If not you, bro, it can be useful to others, I think sharing articles and important news can be very helpful for everyone. and as you see, I post everthing in one thread.

So far I had one qualifying pick, but because I finished to post the thread just when the game started,I had to pass on it.

I personally start post my bets when the tournament get under way, of course, if I will have qualifying pick I will not hesitate to write it down. Hope I answered your questions.

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Some decent reading, although a bit too verbose. Something to keep in mind when ROI is being discussed: the juice they used in those calculations was 2%, not 10% used at the normal books. I'd love to bet at 1.98/1.98 odds.

I understand your point, but as you can see, it's not all about odds&juice, but there is other information that could be useful.

Originally posted by ohdecas

Nice reading, thank you

JustSomeCash · 05-22-14, 08:09 PM

Men's Qualifiers

Blaz Rola @ 1.61 Risking 1.62x to Win 1x

SirtySree · 05-22-14, 08:14 PM

i thought the bit on juan monaco was interesting considering he got broken by karlovic yesterday multiple times =.="

JustSomeCash · 05-31-14, 03:27 AM

First week was so boring that i had to wauit til yesterday to place my first bet on RG..
Now after this week is over, is the time to start shooting all over the place ~~ lets go ~!

Roland Garros - Day 7 picks

Selection 1: ATP French Open - R3
Jack Sock/Dusan Lajovic - Total Games Over 38 for Match @ 1.826
Risking 1.00x to Win 0.83x

Selection 2: ATP French Open - R3
Kevin Anderson @ 1.574
Risking 2.00x to Win 1.14x

Selection 3: ATP French Open - R3
Gael Monfils GAME HANDICAP +2.5 for Match @ 1.800
Risking 1.00x to Win 0.80x

Selection 4: ATP French Open - R3
Richard Gasquet @ 1.884
Risking 1.50x to Win 1.32x

Selection 5: WTA French R3
Julia Glushko - Games Over 5.5 for Match @ 1.862
Risking 0.50x to Win 0.43x