Cornet V Giorgo - Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr WTF!

[matt1216]

where did u get public % matt?

I didn't say public sir.

[matt1216]

this is why I like Verdasco today as well

[frugalgambler]

Yeah this one wasn't a hard one IMO... Cornet is way more consistant than Giorgi.... Plus 85% were on Giorgi lmao, auto fade once that happens

This is pretty hilarious. Giorgi had a MP, did you know that ? Hindsight 20/20.

[fitguy67]

Yeah this one wasn't a hard one IMO... Cornet is way more consistant than Giorgi.... Plus 85% were on Giorgi lmao, auto fade once that happens

where did you get that figure, Matt...a rough guesstimate...or from a source?

the main thing wrong with most of these sorts of "consensus %" figures is that they're generally based on % of the number of total bets in a market...not on % of the total $-value bet in that market...

the latter would be FAR more useful than the former (as markets are clearly not "one bettor/one vote" nor even "one bet/one vote"...they are a much different animal: "one dollar/one vote")...but the books of course do NOT release hard data on this, on purpose...but seem to be happy to release figures of questionable/self-serving "accuracy" on the far less useful/far more misleading former

noting "reverse line movement" (RLM) when price changes are going counter to changes in PUBLICIZED bet% is a feeble attempt to know when the BIG (assumedly smart) money bet by the handful of well-informed/well-capitalized goats is going on the opposite side of the majority of poorly-informed/low-capitalized sheep...

i suspect many such cases of obvious (to those who like to think of themselves as "sharp") RLM are "manufactured" or at least magnified to attract/"trap" RLM-chasers on the side desired by the books...whether to simply balance their books=reduce their risk or in keeping with their own profit-seeking risk-accepting "opinion" on the market...

compared to the books who actually HAVE the $-figures...even the sharpest of cats who try to ESTIMATE them based on information released by their enemy, the books...are, well...square as fukk...

perhaps even squarer than those of us who just ignore/suspect as manipulated bullshit all published consensus-% figures (and massagings thereof)...and choose instead to rely on the fundamentals of the matchup in relation to the market prices available

[matt1216]

This is pretty hilarious. Giorgi had a MP, did you know that ? Hindsight 20/20.

Yes frugal, I understand. Did you know Giorgi mentally is about as fragile as wet paper bag? How do you not take cornet at + odds. Basic wagering. Cornets been close to a final indoor this year...

[matt1216]

where did you get that figure, Matt...a rough guesstimate...or from a source?

the main thing wrong with most of these sorts of "consensus %" figures is that they're generally based on % of the number of total bets in a market...not on % of the total $-value bet in that market...

the latter would be FAR more useful than the former (as markets are clearly not "one bettor/one vote" nor even "one bet/one vote"...they are a much different animal: "one dollar/one vote")...but the books of course do NOT release hard data on this, on purpose...but seem to be happy to release figures of questionable/self-serving "accuracy" on the far less useful/far more misleading former

noting "reverse line movement" (RLM) when price changes are going counter to changes in PUBLICIZED bet% is a feeble attempt to know when the BIG (assumedly smart) money bet by the handful of well-informed/well-capitalized goats is going on the opposite side of the majority of poorly-informed/low-capitalized sheep...

i suspect many such cases of obvious (to those who like to think of themselves as "sharp") RLM are "manufactured" or at least magnified to attract/"trap" RLM-chasers on the side desired by the books...whether to simply balance their books=reduce their risk or in keeping with their own profit-seeking risk-accepting "opinion" on the market...

compared to the books who actually HAVE the $-figures...even the sharpest of cats who try to estimate them based on information released by their enemy, the books...are, well...square as fukk

Oddsportal.... A bunch of lemmings that follow one solid capper on to one side.

[frugalgambler]

Yes frugal, I understand. Did you know Giorgi mentally is about as fragile as wet paper bag? How do you not take cornet at + odds. Basic wagering. Cornets been close to a final indoor this year...

I really do not think Cornet was ever a dog in this one: she opened as a fav and then the odds went to 50/50; but maybe I am wrong. Anyway, making statements that Cornet was an obvious play AFTER such an up-and-down match is just hilarious. I did not know you were such a jester. By the way, what happened to your thread ?

[fitguy67]

Oddsportal.... A bunch of lemmings that follow one solid capper on to one side.

...yes...then switch to another cliff as soon as someone else's ROI for the current month temporarily rises to the top of the heap (the kind of place well-suited to gentlemen like our friend addictedto)...

problem with all forums is the effective age of most participants is 13...they latch on to someone hot and call them god...then discard them like a used tissue after two consecutive losing days, denouncing their previous god as shit as they do...

long-term = lifetime of a their latest zit...
scrotum-licking lemmings to the new flavor of the month they just started tailing...and rude as fukk ungrateful pricks to whoever they've given up on and blame their 'hurtin' bankroll on...

i used to get worked up about crap like that...now just realize most people are stupid self-centred scum...but the exceptions make it all wothwhile

[matt1216]

I really do not think Cornet was ever a dog in this one: she opened as a fav and then the odds went to 50/50; but maybe I am wrong. Anyway, making statements that Cornet was an obvious play AFTER such an up-and-down match is just hilarious. I did not know you were such a jester. By the way, what happened to your thread ?

Frugal, look at my account on oddsportal Matt1216..... I had cornet vs Arad @6.00 cleaned up... I had her @2.05 and cleaned up again.... Thanks though

[matt1216]

...yes...then switch to another cliff as soon as someone else's ROI for the current month temporarily rises to the top of the heap (the kind of place well-suited to gentlemen like our friend addictedto)...problem with all forumss is the effective age of most participants is 13...they latch on to someone hot and call them god...then discard them like a used tissue after two consecutive losing days, denouncing their previous god as shit as they do

This is why I don't follow anybody, I rather make my own mistakes and learn from them.

[matt1216]

this is why I like Verdasco today as well

And he wins...

[frugalgambler]

Frugal, look at my account on oddsportal Matt1216..... I had cornet vs Arad @6.00 cleaned up... I had her @2.05 and cleaned up again.... Thanks though

It would be too bad if you stopped posting your picks here; looks like a lot of good cappers are leaving lately. I hope you'll revive your thread at some point, just ignore the trolls. I still think your statement that Cornet was an obvious play is hilarious, regardless of your actual bet. I mean, Giorgi did have a MP. Congrats on Verdasco hit, no idea why his odds drifted from +135 to +160.

[matt1216]

It would be too bad if you stopped posting your picks here; looks like a lot of good cappers are leaving lately. I hope you'll revive your thread at some point, just ignore the trolls. I still think your statement that Cornet was an obvious play is hilarious, regardless of your actual bet. I mean, Giorgi did have a MP. Congrats on Verdasco hit, no idea why his odds drifted from +135 to +160.

Remember Frugal.... I said Cornet was a "obvious play" not "obvious win" . Cornet was @2.05 last night/early morning, which is rediculous. Someone put big money on Giorgi. Was the matchup close ? Yes. Are both women flakes? Yes. Cornets played in a few "big" moments this year. I went with cornet due to expierience, and the fact I've seen Giorgi lose some of the worst matches this year.


i havn't stopped posting. I was just posting way to many plays which is highly junior of myself. I'll be posting spot plays 1-2 a day at times if I feel its a great opportunity

[matt1216]

It would be too bad if you stopped posting your picks here; looks like a lot of good cappers are leaving lately. I hope you'll revive your thread at some point, just ignore the trolls. I still think your statement that Cornet was an obvious play is hilarious, regardless of your actual bet. I mean, Giorgi did have a MP. Congrats on Verdasco hit, no idea why his odds drifted from +135 to +160.

The lemming theory man. One guy puts big money on almagro, the rest follow on the broken bridge. Almagro has shown nothing this year. Verdasco has atleast shown some consistancy.

[matt1216]

...yes...then switch to another cliff as soon as someone else's ROI for the current month temporarily rises to the top of the heap (the kind of place well-suited to gentlemen like our friend addictedto)...

problem with all forums is the effective age of most participants is 13...they latch on to someone hot and call them god...then discard them like a used tissue after two consecutive losing days, denouncing their previous god as shit as they do...

long-term = lifetime of a their latest zit...
scrotum-licking lemmings to the new flavor of the month they just started tailing...and rude as fukk ungrateful pricks to whoever they've given up on and blame their 'hurtin' bankroll on...

i used to get worked up about crap like that...now just realize most people are stupid self-centred scum...but the exceptions make it all wothwhile

Yup addictedpro lost a lot of my respect when I showed my stats but he refuses to comment on his account. I wasn't suprised, I think he's pretty young.