THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Fourth Pickin'-Thread <3

[Hardcoar]

Curious hardcoar, when is the next big tournament you will be following closely? Want to make sure I get your plays. By the way, I'm sure you know this already from tons of experience, but betting all this tennis definitely makes me realize how more in tennis than in any other sport, someone far behind can always come back. Some crazy beats recently and awhile back when I messed around with tennis and got burned badly on my own.

I'll always remember my worst, risking $300 on -150ish favorite, won first set 6-3 and up 5-0, 30-luv second set. Underdog breaks that game and wins the next 6. Then wins the next set 6-4. Was absolutely stunned for days.

I really can't say. I try to follow tennis as closely as I allow myself constantly. Sometimes I spend my time on other things. Yeah this sport is ridiculous from that point of view.

12.2% ROI on 600 bets is something impressive
Do you live from betting Hardcoar ?

and about your units, you said 1 U is 1% of your bankroll, do you keep your bankroll steady (withdraw regularly) or do you increase your stakes ?

No I do not. Hopefully I said .5%. I do withdraw regularly but I don't keep it as proportionate as I should.

HC are you fat? I imagine you as a fat guy

Extremely obese.

[Hardcoar]

Sharapova -4.5 @ 2.28 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[kenz]

Dont like these 2 bets. Hope you win

[Hardcoar]

Lepchenko @ 11.5 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Ferrer @ 3.47 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Let's try another big dawg. Murray was quite outstanding against a solid Melzer (after picking shit up mid 1:st). I don't recall seeing him play this well on clay ever. Nadal by contrast looks more vulnerable recently than I have ever seen him in the past few years. He barely won against an inspired Simon and inconsistent Yoshi. These odds should be around @ 4 in my opinion.

[Hardcoar]

Murray @ 6.3 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Jankovic -2.5 @ 1.926 – 20 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Taking this early. If Jankovic isn't dying from cancer this is some ridiculous value. I see her absolutely mopping the dirt with Errani tomorrow. Consider how rock solid she was on service today on this court.

I expected Jankovic to be @ 1.4, and I think she should be even lower than that. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind she'd win this match at least 3/4 times.

Edit: Trying some short write-ups. It's good for followers and my personal reasoning alike.

[bababooey13]

GL good short writeup you almost make me wanna bet wta but in the end id rather watch grass grow

[matt1216]

Taking this early. If Jankovic isn't dying from cancer this is some ridiculous value. I see her absolutely mopping the dirt with Errani tomorrow. Consider how rock solid she was on service today on this court.

I expected Jankovic to be @ 1.4, and I think she should be even lower than that. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind she'd win this match at least 3/4 times.

Edit: Trying some short write-ups. It's good for followers and my personal reasoning alike.

hey bud, keep up the good work.

[Hardcoar]

Thanks. Hopefully this one will win for a change in recent times.

[fitguy67]

GL good short writeup you almost make me wanna bet wta but in the end id rather watch grass grow

agree 100%...the trick/solution, of course is to BLIND (in the full sense of the word) follow HC...meaning just because you bet on something doesn't mean you have to watch/suffer through it...

i'll bet on NBA occasionally, usually when someone's thread i trust makes a strong-enough case for it...

but wild horses couldn't get me to watch NBA...it once was a sport...but now it's legal proceedings with specialized garments...the last "2 minutes" of an NBA game is the most annoyingly-interrupted 37 minutes of contrived contentious bullshit...only thing i know that's hands-down more painful than WTA...so i won't watch either...

i will bet on them tho' if i trust the capper..cuz money isn't annoying

[bababooey13]

agree 100%...the trick/solution, of course is to BLIND (in the full sense of the word) follow HC...meaning just because you bet on something doesn't mean you have to watch/suffer through it...

i'll bet on NBA occasionally, usually when someone's thread i trust makes a strong-enough case for it...

but wild horses couldn't get me to watch NBA...it once was a sport...but now it's legal proceedings with specialized garments...the last "2 minutes" of an NBA game is the most annoyingly-interrupted 37 minutes of contrived contentious bullshit...only thing i know that's hands-down more painful than WTA...so i won't watch either...

i will bet on them tho' if i like the bet...cuz money isn't annoying

any time i have placed a wta bet, it loses. literally every time. i think i cashed a serena bet once. i won't jinx HC.

[tipsadontlikehim]

Thanks. Hopefully this one will win for a change in recent times.

tailing you (probably my only WTA play this year )
BOL!

[frugalgambler]

I thought you took JJ over A-Rad and wanted to congratulate you, HC.

But you are taking her over Sarah. One factor that I do not like is the home crowd support. JJ was able to dispatch Flavia easily but it will be harder to do that today and Errani seems to be able to feed off the crowd support. It is true though that JJ looked pretty good in Rome. She is probably playing as well as Ana right now, right behind Serena and Sugarpova.

[kenz]

Guys I would not recommend this

Yesterday Li - Errani was a huge fix. No question about it and Errani was in it too, not bothered at all when she got broken to 0.

2013 both played against each other in Istanbul, I live in Turkey did not watch it but heard from friends the game was somewhat awkward, they were surprised that JJ did not want to play.

COnsiderind a perfectly clean game JJ serving well yesterday does not mean anything in WTA too. She might suck today and crowd will be all over Errani to win. There wont be easy points for JJ today.

BOL

[kenz]

I would not trust JJ to make -hcp today. She does not play the same good standard usually and one bad set against a home crowd kills the hcp

[frugalgambler]

What is hcp ? Errani - Li Na fixed ??? I think you taking that one too far, why would Li Na who has already made ~50 mil fix a match ? She did complain of some stomach issues after the match, but fixed ??? Also, it is not like Errani would be surprised to be broken at love: given her serve speed she should be used to that by now. After your post, I am starting to lean JJ.

[kenz]

Handicap.

To make someone rich? Why would Davydenko fix a match? It was fixed and I dont give a shit if you lean JJ or something else, win/lose I dont care what you do with your money

[frugalgambler]

Sure, and I do not care to listen to someone spouting borderline crackpot theories. As for Davydenko and Kohli those dudes are not making nearly as much money as top dogs. In case you did not realize top-10 men and top-10 women are pretty rich, with top-4 men and Serena, Li Na and Sharapova being filthy rich. Perennial top-15, top-20 players are well off, but those below them like Kohli and Davydenko are not that far above breaking even. Next time you will start to cry fix every time you lose a bet, like those idiots in the soccer/NBA fora.

To further elaborate, any suspicion of a top dog fixing a match would cost that said player a lot of money in endorsements, a lot more than they can make through shady fix-deals. Jesus, why am I even bothering to explain this to you. No offense buddy, but the fact that you live in Turkey explains your conspiracy leanings. A lot of shady things are going on in the world, but Li Na fixing matches is not one of them.

[kenz]

Did not read. You did not watch the game, I like douches who thinks they are smart

[ManeOnFire]

Woa is "fora" forum pl.? Doubt Li is fixing for money. Maybe she had other reasons the other day if she did even lose on purpose. I'm suspicious of the Pova match. Unfortunately for us this is part of the game. Haas comes to mind-being older must be part of the reason though.

[kenz]

Guys I dont have any problem with you or Li. I slept my best sleep in the last 3 weeks. Li can fix it too, might have a poor friend or relative As long as she goes to hell, I am ok with it

Just watch the game. Li purposedly lost may be 40-50 points, mostly ues. You can make it a few times but 4 points in the same game is silly. I dont wantto write all those ridiculuos points just watch it.

peace guys. And bol with JJ

[Honeybadger44]

Liking this Jankovic bet, quite a lot. As you wrote above, Jelena has been rock solid on serve, throughout this entire tournament. And my theory, when I bet matches involving Errani is: If opponent can create big adventage, through their serve/return game, then go against Errani. Jelena definitely has that adventage.

agree 100%...the trick/solution, of course is to BLIND (in the full sense of the word) follow HC...meaning just because you bet on something doesn't mean you have to watch/suffer through it...

i'll bet on NBA occasionally, usually when someone's thread i trust makes a strong-enough case for it...

but wild horses couldn't get me to watch NBA...it once was a sport...but now it's legal proceedings with specialized garments...the last "2 minutes" of an NBA game is the most annoyingly-interrupted 37 minutes of contrived contentious bullshit...only thing i know that's hands-down more painful than WTA...so i won't watch either...

i will bet on them tho' if i trust the capper..cuz money isn't annoying

AMEN, sir! Sorry for going off-topic with this comment, but I had to make a reply on this one. You are spot on, here. Once I loved NBA basketball so much, that I was awake entire night, watching some unimportant regular season games. Now, I can't watch this theatre, with gun pointed to my head. It is sad to see, in which way this league and game went...

[Marillion]

The fact that somebody is well-off does not mean they won't fix a match. What was the rank of Davydenko when he fixed that match against the Spaniard? He was 4th in the world. I mean there's a ton of information about fixes in different sports, you just need to dig deeper.

Declan Hill in "The Fix" writes a ton about that (and this is just one source). Some sports people, even very rich ones, may fix matches for a wide variety of reasons. And guess what, we here are just a bunch of forum idiots guessing which player would fix a match and why but truth is we know very little.

Just a few examples - yesterday, I read that David James, who has played 53 fn times for the English national soccer team, has admitted that he has wasted all the 20 million British pounds he has earned in his career (OK he declared he was bankrupt, this amount is just an estimation and he had an expensive divorce but still). Alen Iverson is bankrupt too.

I am not saying claiming every bet you lose (or a lot of bets you lose) is a fix isn't pathetic. It is (and I'm not saying kenz does that). However, being ultra-assertive that Serena, Pova, Nadal or Na Li won't fix a match is naive.

And yeah fora should be plural for forums, though this is the first time I see someone using it in English and not in Latin.

no bad feelings, BOL to you all

ed: Could someone explain in two void of metaphors simple English sentences why you dislike NBA? I never watch American sports but have high respect for both of you (fitguy and honeyb) as posters and am just interested to know why you feel like that about basketball. : )

[Honeybadger44]

@Marrilion

We are seriously putting ourselves in danger, talking about some off-topic BS, in Hardcoar's thread. He is gonna ban us for life

I don't feel like that for basketball in general. As a matter of fact, i really like european basketball. It doesn't have that many quality and athletic players like NBA, but when you watch the game, you can see that teams fight for every single possesion, diving for the ball in the stands and simply wanting the win more and playing with more heart. That is something which is missing in the NBA in recent years imho. Playing defense is optional. There are so called superstars, which care more about putting up 25 ppg (usually with 30% FG), then helping their team making the playoffs. I could go on and on. I think there is just too many things missing, which usually make the sport interesting. First of all, I want to see some blood and tears. Battle for every single possesion. Teams busting their asses of in every game...

[faststeady]

Taking this early. If Jankovic isn't dying from cancer this is some ridiculous value. I see her absolutely mopping the dirt with Errani tomorrow. Consider how rock solid she was on service today on this court.

I expected Jankovic to be @ 1.4, and I think she should be even lower than that. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind she'd win this match at least 3/4 times.

Edit: Trying some short write-ups. It's good for followers and my personal reasoning alike.

You're opening up too much, mystique is better.

[JustSomeCash]

Did not read. You did not watch the game, I like douches who thinks they are smart

LOL

IDK what is going in your head after loss so big wager(you also win some money back on llive betting so) but this time its poor excuse man,mybe some of the guys didnt watch the game,but I did,and it was all about Li erros,and its just pathetic to say she fix this game,its was like alwayes when she loss,she make alot of UE or she just gassed in 3rd set,LOL if you call this one fix how you would call to Li@Penneta game at IW' SF...

Also Errani fight well during all game! she made some big shots and managed to return a lot of big shots from Li,also the crowd helped her a lot and didnt let her to let go for a moment,when you pkay against players like Errani you need to be concentrated and stable for all duration of the rally, because they always let you play one more shot than you thought that would be enough,and in Li case,she just too old to keep runnig for 120+ min' and stay focused on long rallys esp against a hostile crowd.

[kenz]

JSC

Watch the game before writing an essay

[kenz]

I am on Errani +3.5 and 2-1 today

[JustSomeCash]

JSC

Watch the game before writing an essay

Ok,You seem to insist on being a genius sharp, then so be it ...

Next time just read the "essay"

"mybe some of the guys didnt watch the game,but I did"

Face it.

Na Li played bad and not close to what you thought as soon as you have placed your bet.

This game was not even close to "fix",sorry for your lost,really,but you just bluffing yourself..

[kenz]

I am not a genius sharp and No it was a fix. I knew where Li would hit her overheads on the net (where Errani stands) and how respond to the return ( somehow throw to out). It was obvious the times she would get broken too. I cant write enough words for this. Anyway it is history, I put the game behind. I just reply when someone says it is a not a fix, cant help with it. Now move on JSH

[JustSomeCash]

I am not a genius sharp and No it was a fix. Now move on JSH

Tough guy!!!

I am not a genius sharp and No it was a fix. I knew where Li would hit her overheads on the net (where Errani stands) and how respond to the return ( somehow throw to out). It was obvious the times she would get broken too. I cant write enough words for this. Anyway it is history, I put the game behind. I just reply when someone says it is a not a fix, cant help with it. Now move on JSH

Considering that you edited your childhood post,I just can say i get your point +-, and the reason you post this here,so like you say,I move on, but for your resume on this forum, that you cultivate by hard working , you should know that this excuse like "fix" sounds silly and indicates a lot about a person. However, I wish you only success.

[kenz]

Bye