THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Fourth Pickin'-Thread <3

[Hardcoar]

Lacko @ 2.23 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Pereira @ 2.05 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Berdych -7 @ 7.24 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Barthel @ 2.19 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX


Total hits: 223
Total mishits: 287
Total stake: 2450u
Net yield: +267.487u
ROI: +10.92% (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Falla @ 2.2 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Barthel @ 2.21 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Soler-Espinosa @ 5.11 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Jovanovski @ 1.9 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Trungelliti @ 2.61 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Cappinpicks]

Easy call on Espinosa, that garbage kunt is incapable of winning a set at -500

[Hardcoar]

Falla @ 2.2 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Barthel @ 2.21 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Soler-Espinosa @ 5.11 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Jovanovski @ 1.9 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Trungelliti @ 2.61 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX


Total hits: 225
Total mishits: 290
Total stake: 2468u
Net yield: +263.727u
ROI: +10.686% (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Smith/Muller O 23 @ 2.5 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Berlocq @ 5.85 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

[beefcake]

Keep waiting for Klizan to fukk up but he playing out of his mind this week. Going to give Foggy all he can handle.

[paulnikolo]

Berlocq @ 5.85 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

Why Berlocq bud?

[paulnikolo]

Keep waiting for Klizan to fukk up but he playing out of his mind this week. Going to give Foggy all he can handle.

Do you think he can handle a veteran in this kind of situation in fogna?

[fitguy67]

Berlocq @ 5.85 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

Why Berlocq bud?

the answer is in the price...hc obviously thinks Berlok has a considerably better chance to win than the 17.09401__% chance buried in the odds (1/5.85)...i agree...

Berlok certainly not "likely" to win (ie. his chance of winning is considerably less than the 50% people use as the threshold for what is "likely" or "probable")...but if his small probability of winning is considerably better than 1/"whatever price is high enough to complete this sentence"...it's a +ev proposition over the long haul...

[Hardcoar]

Pennetta 1:st @ evens – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Klizan 1:st @ 3.05 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Hantuchova @ 2.94 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Nara 1:st @ 2.11 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Lama +1.5 @ 1.952 – 20 units (Pinnacle)

[kenz]

Lama +1.5 @ 1.952 – 20 units (Pinnacle)

airbet?No way you will bet 20 units on Kola Kola

[Hardcoar]

I never post airbets. Please refer to my record.

I am highly confident in Lama being a massive favorite today. He may lose, but I don't find it likely, and am willing to take the risk. This is the final, after all.

[miniuser]

why do you think the books are mis-judging his value so much?

[Hardcoar]

Lack of knowledge to be honest (especially on the part of most people moving the line by, you know... betting).

I'm basing my opinion mainly on watching the Llama with a very convincing run of form this week while Trungelliti was anything but convincing, barely surviving a pathetic performance from Bagnis in the semis. Still factor of error and coincidence needs to be taken into account – just the same as always.

Edit: Another theory I have is that people (including the bookmakers) are reading too much into the ""big name" upsets" of Lorenzi and Bagnis, who both really were quite terrible.

[Hardcoar]

Smith/Muller O 23 @ 2.5 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Berlocq @ 5.85 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Pennetta 1:st @ evens – 10 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Klizan 1:st @ 3.05 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Hantuchova @ 2.94 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Nara 1:st @ 2.11 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Lama +1.5 @ 1.952 – 20 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Total hits: 228
Total mishits: 294
Total stake: 2518u
Net yield: +284.467u
ROI: +11.3% (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Granollers-Pujol -4.5 @ 1.917 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Nieminen @ 2.66 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.38 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[tipsadontlikehim]

I never post airbets. Please refer to my record.

I am highly confident in Lama being a massive favorite today. He may lose, but I don't find it likely, and am willing to take the risk. This is the final, after all.

Bravo
hey mate do you have a oddsportal account by any chance ?

[Hardcoar]

Thanks... It was a big win for me. I could stand with better bank-roll management at times but if I like something a lot I like going big on it.

I do but I only "use" it to track odds and movements. The only place I display my standard bets is here.

[Hardcoar]

Pliskova 1:st @ 2.3 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Garbage-Willie 1:st @ 2.03 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[tipsadontlikehim]

I could stand with better bank-roll management at times but if I like something a lot I like going big on it.

we all do this once in a while

[Hardcoar]

Lopez @ 2.37 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Cappinpicks]

lopez? due theory i guess

[Hardcoar]

Svitolina @ 5.42 – 5 units (Pinnacle)