THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Fourth Pickin'-Thread <3

[Hardcoar]

Estrella @ 6.13 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Tsonga @ 1.98 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[bababooey13]

[Hardcoar]

Tsonga @ 2.05 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Halep/Lisicki O 21.5 @ 2.19 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Kvitova/Williams O 20.5 @ 2.31 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

SUXX

Ivanovic 2-1 @ 4.26 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Lopez @ 6.55 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Sharapova 1:st @ 1.498 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Ferrer @ 1.625 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Puig @ 1.512 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Lajovic @ 3.08 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Estrella @ 6.13 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Tsonga @ 1.98 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Tsonga @ 2.05 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Total hits: 251
Total mishits: 313
Total stake: 2748u
Net yield: +352.225u
ROI: +12.812% (rounded)

[bababooey13]

on konga

[Hardcoar]

I'm considering to start making (even ()) fewer bets and use a flat stake either risked or to win. Given the theoretically smaller risk of making bad bets (due to the lower number of them) that should reduce the need to grade the bets with different amounts of units.

[CindyCryBaby]

I'm considering to start making (even ()) fewer bets and use a flat stake either risked or to win. Given the theoretically smaller risk of making bad bets (due to the lower number of them) that should reduce the need to grade the bets with different amounts of units.

This would severely limit your ability to make bets like copil ml vs. dimitrov or Thiem ml vs. wawrinka...Bets like that may not be profitable in a vacuum, but over the course of thousands of bets, will be +ev

[fitguy67]

I'm considering to start making (even ()) fewer bets and use a flat stake either risked or to win. Given the theoretically smaller risk of making bad bets (due to the lower number of them) that should reduce the need to grade the bets with different amounts of units.

HC,

i recommend that you continue doing things EXACTLY as you're now doing...

a look at your ROI screams "it ain't broke"...so don't try to fix it...

not long ago i spreadsheeted each and every play in this thread to investigate the question of whether a successful bettor who varies each bet's stake, such as yourself...with the one who bet flat to risk (or my personal favorite, to win) a set amount...

your varied-staking (which is tantamount to varied win-targeting...two sides of the same coin, really) regime beats the pants off of either flat-betting regime...

my one suggestion, however is to cap your max bet at "10"...those double-maxxers are a double-edged sword...get hot with'em for a while (as you have been for the last several weeks) and things look way better than they really are...when variance eventually brings the win% of these super-bombs back to where they statistically should be...the tears of joy turn quickly to tears of pain

so...carry on exactly as you have been...but i'd suggest you drop the double-maxxers now, while you're way ahead from them

________________

after our discussion several pages ago...and the investigation i did that converted me to a believer that whatever you (and the dudes over at tennis explorer who similarly vary stake from 1 to 10-max) have been doing works...I've been following along as you call'em...except i've been playing all your "20s" as if they've really been "10s"...the overall results are quite similar really...but dropping the "double-maxxers" = replacing them with simple "maxxers" will greatly reduce variance (and blood pressure) without any long-term net change in your account balance (it'll just remove a source of huge swing-magnification...)

all the plays from 1 to 10 units have an important "proportionality" to them...the double maxxer blows that proportionality out of the water and puts your balance and ROI at the mercy of whether this small set of plays is "hot" or "cold" recently

[Hardcoar]

You know it's funny... on the outset five units was supposed to be the maximum. I just can't resist letting a sick bet go unpounded I guess. Good point that.

I appreciate the feedback guys.

[Hardcoar]

Scheepers @ 5.68 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
Scheepers 1:st @ 4.46 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Giraldo @ evens – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[fitguy67]

You know it's funny... on the outset five units was supposed to be the maximum. I just can't resist letting a sick bet go unpounded I guess. Good point that.

I appreciate the feedback guys.

HC, i've edited (mostly added to) my original post since you responded...

take a look at it again...

[Hardcoar]

Cetkovska @ 2.62 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.2 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Barthel @ 4.65 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[bstatz23]

I'm guessing I already know the answer HC, but do you ever bet futures for tournaments?

[Hardcoar]

Yes, I do. I used to do it a lot more when I wasn't reduced to using only Pinnacle. I make any bet I find to be holding value.

[frugalgambler]

Just out of curiosity, why are you fading Errani ? I thought she was starting to play decent clay court tennis again, her recent losses were all to power-hitters and I thought Scheepers does not have a good power game. Maybe 1st set has a chance but full match looks pretty dubious.

[Hardcoar]

She has been average to me recently and hasn't done too well at this event historically. Scheepers seems to love this event historically as well as f*cking bitches up in qualies. I give her a better chance than 1/4 at least but I couldn't pick between the two bets.

Scheep-Scheep doesn't seem just as whoreshit in the last month or so.

[frugalgambler]

Maybe you are right, maybe Errani does not handle well the pressure of playing at home as an overwhelming fav (see Nadal and Foggs).

[JustSomeCash]

HC hi,I have a Q for you..

Lets say I want to auto-copy your bets,and for that I assigns 500$, how much unit need to be worth?

Really appreciate it if you could answer me, thanks.

[fitguy67]

HC hi,I have a Q for you..

Lets say I want to auto-copy your bets,and for that I assigns 500$, how much unit need to be worth?

Really appreciate it if you could answer me, thanks.

in case ur in a hurry for an answr, i can tell you hc has answered this q several times in the past, so i can tell u that he sets approx. 1% of his starting ac as a unit...for you that'd be $5

[bababooey13]

i like giraldo as well. he's never won a set off cilic yet he's @ evens?

[Hardcoar]

Kukushkin @ 13 – 2 units (Pinnacle)
Kukushkin 1:st @ 7.91 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Scheepers @ 5.68 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
Scheepers 1:st @ 4.46 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX
FUXX

Giraldo @ evens – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Cetkovska @ 2.62 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.2 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Barthel @ 4.65 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Kukushkin @ 13 – 2 units (Pinnacle)
Kukushkin 1:st @ 7.91 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX
FUXX

Total hits: 252
Total mishits: 320
Total stake: 2772u
Net yield: +338.705u
ROI: +12.22% (rounded)

[EVfollower]

Curious hardcoar, when is the next big tournament you will be following closely? Want to make sure I get your plays. By the way, I'm sure you know this already from tons of experience, but betting all this tennis definitely makes me realize how more in tennis than in any other sport, someone far behind can always come back. Some crazy beats recently and awhile back when I messed around with tennis and got burned badly on my own.

I'll always remember my worst, risking $300 on -150ish favorite, won first set 6-3 and up 5-0, 30-luv second set. Underdog breaks that game and wins the next 6. Then wins the next set 6-4. Was absolutely stunned for days.

[tipsadontlikehim]

12.2% ROI on 600 bets is something impressive
Do you live from betting Hardcoar ?

and about your units, you said 1 U is 1% of your bankroll, do you keep your bankroll steady (withdraw regularly) or do you increase your stakes ?

[kenz]

HC are you fat? I imagine you as a fat guy

[bababooey13]

HC are you european? i m guessing you are european

[kenz]

I guess he has French origin

[addictedto]

HC, are you Tsonga? And are you gonna win today against Milos?

[matt1216]

HC, he's none of the above... He's probably from South Africa.

[ManeOnFire]

Good.

FUXX
FUXX

FUXX

KEXX

FUXX

FUXX

FUXX
FUXX

Total hits: 252
Total mishits: 320
Total stake: 2772u
Net yield: +338.705u
ROI: +12.22% (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Melzer @ 5.01 – 5 units (Pinnacle)