THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Fourth Pickin'-Thread <3

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • kenz
    SBR MVP
    • 12-09-12
    • 4879

    #736
    I think it is not a bad idea to put some on Djokovic 2-1 @4.50

    Or Isner 2-1 @12 is also great, he cant serve that consistent to beat Djokovic in 2. I think better than Isner ML

    H2H supports me, but with or without H2H I am also thinking about first set over 10.5 @2.42, over 12.5 @2.75

    I bought there will be a tiebreak already.

    I feel I will buy 3-4 bets
    Comment
    • fitguy67
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-13-11
      • 5082

      #737
      Originally posted by kenz
      I think it is not a bad idea to put some on Djokovic 2-1 @4.50

      Or Isner 2-1 @12 is also great, he cant serve that consistent to beat Djokovic in 2. I think better than Isner ML

      H2H supports me, but with or without H2H I am also thinking about first set over 10.5 @2.42, over 12.5 @2.75

      I bought there will be a tiebreak already.

      I feel I will buy 3-4 bets
      so far i have Isner ML and the TB,yes at 1.70/-143. The latter seems as close to a steal as you can get, based on historical frequencies (with the ridiculously small sample sizes we're forced to work with as far as the "tea leaf" reading we call capping).

      ***I like your idea of somehow playing the "will go 3 sets" angle. One way could be by melding the 2-1/1-2 plus-money options as above. (You could also get the same effect with a single over2.5sets bet if available.)

      ***Also like your idea of playing the "first set will be a long one" angle.

      About betting on propositions applying to the first set vs. later sets...overall talent/recent form and plausible "game plans" utilizing them would seem to be more reliable as predictors in the earlier sets in general, and most strongly in the first set...as stamina/fitness/chronic injuries etc. less likely to be any impediment to performance earlier...but become increasingly important as the match goes on...So, when Isner is strongest, that's when he's most likely to be able to serve lights out and to rally hard if necessary to prevent being broken at all costs. Seems his game plan hinges on preventing being broken in the first set, to at the very worst force a TB, in which he has a much better than coin-flip shot...then to capitalize on the momentum of winning the first set (including the demoralization of his opponent...to have worked so long and hard to be down a set)...doing "whatever is necessary" to win the first set against a top-tier opponent almost guarantees a long set.

      Think i will also look to play each of these two additional angles as you suggest.
      Last edited by fitguy67; 03-15-14, 01:58 PM.
      Comment
      • matt1216
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-27-11
        • 14683

        #738
        Isner will have to hit 80% of his first serves today. He was somethin like 31% second serves in set 1 vs gulbis. This will be gulbis on steroids today lol.
        Comment
        • Hardcoar
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-17-13
          • 15606

          #739
          Originally posted by poet
          HC, in terms of value, do you like the odds we are getting on Isner are good/fair/or poor? He has shown that he can beat Djoker and Djoker has shown that he can be rattled by Isner and pro Isner crowd.
          I think they are a bit high to be honest. Djokovic clearly struggles against Isner (the serve in particular, unsurprisingly), who was very composed against Gulbis despite a couple lapses and for the most part was serving bombs. He will want to be more consistent tonight in this regard however. Djokovic isn't the best of servers on the other hand, and in terms of style-of-play this should be easier on Isner's game. Add to this that Djokovic has not looked very good lately at all (by his high standards, of course), and selected Isner bets might be good here.

          Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim
          HC = The boss!
          Not really. It's just an illusion caused by momentary luck.


          I didn't take Pennetta 2-0 because I thought the odds for 2-1 held more value, and I thought Pennetta dropping a set in a potential victory was very likely.

          I was unable to catch the match though.
          Comment
          • Hardcoar
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-17-13
            • 15606

            #740
            Originally posted by Hardcoar
            Pennetta 1:st @ 3.05 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
            Pennetta +4.5 @ 2.02 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
            Pennetta 2-1 @ 8.36 – 2 units (Pinnacle)
            KEXX
            KEXX

            FUXX

            Total hits: 159
            Total mishits: 215
            Total stake: 1624u
            Net yield: +160.054u
            ROI: +9.86% (rounded)
            Last edited by Hardcoar; 03-16-14, 08:56 AM. Reason: Wrong format used; Corrected quoting.
            Comment
            • fitguy67
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-13-11
              • 5082

              #741
              Originally posted by matt1216
              Isner will have to hit 80% of his first serves today. He was somethin like 31% second serves in set 1 vs gulbis. This will be gulbis on steroids today lol.
              today's matchups...

              Isner v. "Gulbis on steroids" (aka. Djokovic)

              In-the-zone Dolgopolov v. "In-the-zone Dolgopolov on steroids" (aka Federer)
              Last edited by fitguy67; 03-15-14, 02:50 PM.
              Comment
              • Hardcoar
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-17-13
                • 15606

                #742
                Peya/Soares @ 3.53 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
                Comment
                • Hardcoar
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-17-13
                  • 15606

                  #743
                  Radwanska to win Indian Wells (all in) @ 1.503 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
                  Comment
                  • Hardcoar
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-17-13
                    • 15606

                    #744
                    Federror 1:st @ 2.49 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
                    Comment
                    • JustSomeCash
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 11-26-13
                      • 561

                      #745
                      Originally posted by Hardcoar
                      Radwanska to win Indian Wells (all in) @ 1.503 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
                      all in but 5 units

                      Can you explain please? tnx

                      Good luck today ferrero rocher!!
                      Comment
                      • fitguy67
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-13-11
                        • 5082

                        #746
                        i think the "(all in)" part is an attempt at hyperbolic humour.

                        At least that's how i took it...unless he's privvy to a mob-enforced fix on the match.
                        Last edited by fitguy67; 03-16-14, 02:33 PM.
                        Comment
                        • JustSomeCash
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 11-26-13
                          • 561

                          #747
                          Originally posted by fitguy67
                          i think the "(all in)" part is an attempt at hyperbolic humour.
                          Ha...ok...
                          Comment
                          • Hardcoar
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-17-13
                            • 15606

                            #748
                            No that's a description of the bet type.
                            Comment
                            • fitguy67
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-13-11
                              • 5082

                              #749
                              Originally posted by Hardcoar
                              Radwanska to win Indian Wells (all in) @ 1.503 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
                              Originally posted by Hardcoar
                              No that's a description of the bet type.
                              By that, oh pedantic one, you mean that ALL of the 5units you later specify for the same bet is IN...damn you're clever

                              ultimately, i doubt if you or anyone else would actually take the posted bet with the commonly-accepted meaning of "risking the entire available bankroll"(= ALL of your available units "IN"= risked) on the bet

                              As it turned out though, the ARad you were betting on was replaced by that same look-alike POS that replaced her in the AO semis against Cibulkova...a zombie-like PMS-sufferer who should have retired between sets instead of obviously just "going thru the motions' as she did...
                              Last edited by fitguy67; 03-16-14, 08:17 PM.
                              Comment
                              • Hardcoar
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-17-13
                                • 15606

                                #750
                                I don't know what you're meaning to say, but I mean that the bet type is "all in". No matter what happens, the bet wins or loses.
                                Comment
                                • Hardcoar
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 02-17-13
                                  • 15606

                                  #751
                                  Honestly Flavia was whoreshit against Cibulkova and Li. Radwanska was fantastic against Halep. I had no idea she'd barely be able to walk without a toilet-break two days later... tough luck!
                                  Comment
                                  • fitguy67
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-13-11
                                    • 5082

                                    #752
                                    ARad had the exact same 24-conversion at the AO between the quarters (against Azarenka, if I recall)...and the semi's against Cibulkova (who had taken out Halep in her QFmatch)...

                                    from female version of David Ferrer in the QF against Azarenka to lifeless-impassive POS against Cibulkova...

                                    same thing as yesterday vs. Halep and today vs. Pennetta...

                                    if i cared enough about WTA i'd take the number of days between the AO semi-final and the IW final and divide by, say 28.5...wouldn't be surprised if it came out close to a whole number
                                    Last edited by fitguy67; 03-16-14, 08:50 PM.
                                    Comment
                                    • kenz
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-09-12
                                      • 4879

                                      #753
                                      Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                      Honestly Flavia was whoreshit against Cibulkova and Li. Radwanska was fantastic against Halep. I had no idea she'd barely be able to walk without a toilet-break two days later... tough luck!
                                      WTA is bullshit

                                      But you are doing exceptionally good generally, so I cant advise you to not bet on this non-sport
                                      Comment
                                      • Hardcoar
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 02-17-13
                                        • 15606

                                        #754
                                        Originally posted by kenz
                                        WTA is bullshit

                                        But you are doing exceptionally good generally, so I cant advise you to not bet on this non-sport
                                        Good one.
                                        Comment
                                        • Hardcoar
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-17-13
                                          • 15606

                                          #755
                                          Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                          Peya/Soares @ 3.53 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
                                          FUXX
                                          Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                          Radwanska to win Indian Wells (all in) @ 1.503 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
                                          FUXX
                                          Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                          Federror 1:st @ 2.49 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
                                          KEXX

                                          Total hits: 160
                                          Total mishits: 217
                                          Total stake: 1635u
                                          Net yield: +156.524u
                                          ROI: +9.6% (rounded)
                                          Comment
                                          • Hardcoar
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-17-13
                                            • 15606

                                            #756
                                            Cabeza-Candela @ 3.63 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
                                            Comment
                                            • Hardcoar
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-17-13
                                              • 15606

                                              #757
                                              Garcia @ 2.43 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
                                              Comment
                                              • Hardcoar
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 02-17-13
                                                • 15606

                                                #758
                                                Larsson @ 2.41 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
                                                Comment
                                                • Hardcoar
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-17-13
                                                  • 15606

                                                  #759
                                                  Mayr-Achleitner @ 1.746 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Hardcoar
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 02-17-13
                                                    • 15606

                                                    #760
                                                    Svitolina 1:st @ 2.05 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Hardcoar
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 02-17-13
                                                      • 15606

                                                      #761
                                                      Garcia @ 2.61 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hardcoar
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 02-17-13
                                                        • 15606

                                                        #762
                                                        Goffin @ 1.862 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Hardcoar
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 02-17-13
                                                          • 15606

                                                          #763
                                                          Wickmayer -0.5 @ 1.893 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Hardcoar
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 02-17-13
                                                            • 15606

                                                            #764
                                                            Flink @ 5.58 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Hardcoar
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-17-13
                                                              • 15606

                                                              #765
                                                              Rybarikova -1 @ 1.847 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Hardcoar
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 02-17-13
                                                                • 15606

                                                                #766
                                                                Dellacqua 1:st @ 1.671 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • kenz
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 12-09-12
                                                                  • 4879

                                                                  #767
                                                                  WTA is your b-tch
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Hardcoar
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 02-17-13
                                                                    • 15606

                                                                    #768
                                                                    Rybarikova not looking good though...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • danielleedeals
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 11-22-13
                                                                      • 6

                                                                      #769
                                                                      Been following your thread for a while, what's your opinion on the Melzer match?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Hardcoar
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 02-17-13
                                                                        • 15606

                                                                        #770
                                                                        I think Kleybanova will win with ease, and that the odds are about right.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...